1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, with high - level volatility around the Spring Festival. In early February, aluminum prices may be under pressure, with sideways fluctuations in the middle and late February. In March, the market may run strongly, with the low of electrolytic aluminum expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500 and the high around 25,500 - 26,500 [5][10]. - The bauxite market in Guinea has a stable and growing supply, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure, moving towards a state of oversupply. The alumina market has an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to remain stalemate in February. The production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is very small. The import of electrolytic aluminum is at a theoretical loss, and the export of Chinese aluminum profiles in 2026 shows a complex situation [9]. - The profit of the domestic alumina industry shows a loss in the spot market and a small profit in the futures market. The profit of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level historically but has decreased compared with last week [10][17]. - The aluminum price is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival, and the risk of correction due to accelerated inventory accumulation and stronger - than - expected US dollar needs to be vigilant. After the festival, the resumption of work of downstream enterprises and the inventory depletion rhythm will be the core drivers [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The medium - term trend is strongly volatile, with high - level volatility around the Spring Festival. In early February, aluminum prices may be under pressure due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle re - evaluation, lack of holiday demand increment, and inventory accumulation. In the middle and late February, pay attention to changes in US Treasury sentiment, US - Iran geopolitical escalation, and Guinea mine strikes. In March, with restocking, peak - season demand, and tight supply, the market may run strongly [5]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle re - evaluation, lack of holiday demand increment, and inventory accumulation in February, and the influence of US Treasury sentiment, US - Iran geopolitics, and Guinea mine strikes in the middle and late February, along with restocking, peak - season demand, and tight supply in March [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Keep an appropriate inventory [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Hold light long positions or clear positions for the holiday. Spot enterprises for hedging are advised to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of Guinea bauxite is growing stably, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure, moving towards oversupply [9]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina industry has an oversupply pattern. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the price is expected to remain stalemate [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The daily output of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects is increasing, and the output is expected to continue to rise in the short term. The global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is very small [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export**: The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,000 yuan/ton. The export of Chinese aluminum profiles in 2026 shows a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthrough, but increasing external barriers" [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: As of February 5, the social inventory of aluminum was about 853,000 tons, up about 7% from last week and about 77% from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The inventory of aluminum rods is about 264,000 tons, up about 8% from last week and about 4% lower than the same period last year, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is expected to occur between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [9][14][15]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, with a spot theoretical loss of about 80 yuan/ton and a futures main - contract theoretical profit of about 50 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 6,500 yuan/ton [10][17]. - **Market Expectation**: The aluminum price is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival, and the risk of correction due to accelerated inventory accumulation and stronger - than - expected US dollar needs to be vigilant. After the festival, the resumption of work of downstream enterprises and the inventory depletion rhythm will be the core drivers [10]. - **Our View**: Similar to the medium - term trend judgment, the aluminum price may be under pressure in early February and is expected to run strongly in March [10]. - **Key Concerns**: US Treasury fluctuations, US - Iran geopolitical situation, and Guinea mine strikes [10]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic bauxite remained unchanged this week, and the import market was inactive. The coal price fluctuated slightly, and the supply was expected to be tight in the short term. The short - term market sentiment of alumina has changed slightly [11]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite increased slightly, and the supply of domestic bauxite was abundant. The alumina inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a high in the past five years. The social inventory of aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods also increased, with an expected inflection point between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [14][15]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a spot loss and a futures profit, and the electrolytic aluminum has a high profit but a decline compared with last week. The theoretical import of electrolytic aluminum is at a loss [17]. - **Downstream Start - up Situation**: The comprehensive start - up rate of aluminum processing this week was 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the start - up of each aluminum - processing sector will be under pressure in February [23]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a positive market structure of higher prices in the far future and lower prices in the near future, with a clear pattern of "off - season demand and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption". The market is optimistic about future supply and demand, but the spot end is still a drag [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about - 2,520 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, which has a neutral - to - supportive impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds decreased slightly. Since late January, long - position holders have reduced their positions slightly at high levels, while short - position holders have increased their positions slightly. There may be repeated high - level market conditions [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: During the significant adjustment of aluminum prices this week, the main funds were hesitant, with no obvious increase or decrease in positions by both long and short sides. There were large differences in institutional positions mainly for speculation, and the net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises decreased since the end of January. The main funds have great differences in the short - term market [39].