| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 最新 | 最新 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 11.55↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 589.50 | | 446.55 | -10.35↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 7.58↑ 长江钯金现货平均价 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 591.60 | | 436.00 | 5.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -3.97↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | 2.10 | | -10.55 | 15.35↑ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | | | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, with high - level volatility around the Spring Festival. In early February, aluminum prices may be under pressure, with sideways fluctuations in the middle and late February. In March, the market may run strongly, with the low of electrolytic aluminum expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500 and the high around 25,500 - 26,500 [5][10]. - The bauxite market in Guinea has a stable and growing supply, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure, moving towards a state of oversupply. The alumina market has an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to remain stalemate in February. The production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is very small. The import of electrolytic aluminum is at a theoretical loss, and the export of Chinese aluminum profiles in 2026 shows a complex situation [9]. - The profit of the domestic alumina industry shows a loss in the spot market and a small profit in the futures market. The profit of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level historically but has decreased compared with last week [10][17]. - The aluminum price is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival, and the risk of correction due to accelerated inventory accumulation and stronger - than - expected US dollar needs to be vigilant. After the festival, the resumption of work of downstream enterprises and the inventory depletion rhythm will be the core drivers [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The medium - term trend is strongly volatile, with high - level volatility around the Spring Festival. In early February, aluminum prices may be under pressure due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle re - evaluation, lack of holiday demand increment, and inventory accumulation. In the middle and late February, pay attention to changes in US Treasury sentiment, US - Iran geopolitical escalation, and Guinea mine strikes. In March, with restocking, peak - season demand, and tight supply, the market may run strongly [5]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle re - evaluation, lack of holiday demand increment, and inventory accumulation in February, and the influence of US Treasury sentiment, US - Iran geopolitics, and Guinea mine strikes in the middle and late February, along with restocking, peak - season demand, and tight supply in March [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Keep an appropriate inventory [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Hold light long positions or clear positions for the holiday. Spot enterprises for hedging are advised to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of Guinea bauxite is growing stably, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure, moving towards oversupply [9]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina industry has an oversupply pattern. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the price is expected to remain stalemate [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The daily output of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects is increasing, and the output is expected to continue to rise in the short term. The global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is very small [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export**: The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,000 yuan/ton. The export of Chinese aluminum profiles in 2026 shows a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthrough, but increasing external barriers" [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: As of February 5, the social inventory of aluminum was about 853,000 tons, up about 7% from last week and about 77% from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The inventory of aluminum rods is about 264,000 tons, up about 8% from last week and about 4% lower than the same period last year, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is expected to occur between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [9][14][15]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, with a spot theoretical loss of about 80 yuan/ton and a futures main - contract theoretical profit of about 50 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 6,500 yuan/ton [10][17]. - **Market Expectation**: The aluminum price is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival, and the risk of correction due to accelerated inventory accumulation and stronger - than - expected US dollar needs to be vigilant. After the festival, the resumption of work of downstream enterprises and the inventory depletion rhythm will be the core drivers [10]. - **Our View**: Similar to the medium - term trend judgment, the aluminum price may be under pressure in early February and is expected to run strongly in March [10]. - **Key Concerns**: US Treasury fluctuations, US - Iran geopolitical situation, and Guinea mine strikes [10]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic bauxite remained unchanged this week, and the import market was inactive. The coal price fluctuated slightly, and the supply was expected to be tight in the short term. The short - term market sentiment of alumina has changed slightly [11]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite increased slightly, and the supply of domestic bauxite was abundant. The alumina inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a high in the past five years. The social inventory of aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods also increased, with an expected inflection point between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [14][15]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a spot loss and a futures profit, and the electrolytic aluminum has a high profit but a decline compared with last week. The theoretical import of electrolytic aluminum is at a loss [17]. - **Downstream Start - up Situation**: The comprehensive start - up rate of aluminum processing this week was 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the start - up of each aluminum - processing sector will be under pressure in February [23]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a positive market structure of higher prices in the far future and lower prices in the near future, with a clear pattern of "off - season demand and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption". The market is optimistic about future supply and demand, but the spot end is still a drag [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about - 2,520 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, which has a neutral - to - supportive impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds decreased slightly. Since late January, long - position holders have reduced their positions slightly at high levels, while short - position holders have increased their positions slightly. There may be repeated high - level market conditions [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: During the significant adjustment of aluminum prices this week, the main funds were hesitant, with no obvious increase or decrease in positions by both long and short sides. There were large differences in institutional positions mainly for speculation, and the net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises decreased since the end of January. The main funds have great differences in the short - term market [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]