Report Overview - Report Name: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - Update Time: May 7, 2025, 08:18 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The market expects that China and the US may reach a certain agreement on tariff issues, with a low risk of complete decoupling, but it may take time and this expectation is at least partially factored into trading. The market is also concerned about the US Treasury bond scale this year, which may significantly affect the US dollar index [2]. - After OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases and even impose punitive production increases, Kazakhstan's consideration of complying with quotas was interpreted as positive, but data verification is still needed. The demand side may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant increase in supply, the impact of seasonal demand growth on prices may be limited. There is also a possibility that if the US Treasury bond scale stops growing, it may ultimately affect crude oil demand [2]. - Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, the probability of the Russia-Ukraine conflict moving towards negotiation is increasing, and the US-Iran negotiation is in progress, but external risks are rising. Overall, trading may return to supply-demand expectations, and OPEC+ is likely to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices, while being alert to potential positive geopolitical impacts [2]. - Overnight oil prices rebounded significantly, possibly due to the positive news of China and the US starting to discuss tariff issues and the support of geopolitical tensions. In the medium term, US crude oil broke below the previous production cut bottom range and continued to decline. The $56 per barrel level shows as a phased support, and the resistance may be around $63 per barrel. In the current situation of OPEC+ accelerating production increase expectations and difficult-to-find demand growth, oil prices may still be under pressure. The difference lies in that the new equilibrium price needs to be determined through trading, and the path to reach the new equilibrium is uncertain [2]. - From a technical analysis perspective, after oil prices plunged below the multi-year production cut bottom and rebounded to around $65 per barrel, a downward trend was formed again. The weekly chart of US crude oil has shown a pattern of breaking through, retesting, and then declining. The medium-term weak pattern is difficult to change, and the probability of a phased decline is increasing. The lower limit may point to $45 per barrel in the medium term. The short-term pressure has moved down to around $60.4 per barrel for US crude oil. In the medium term, the trading strategy should still be to sell on rallies. Aggressive investors can consider short positions and set stop-losses, or consider buying put options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On May 6, SC crude oil was at 458.90 yuan per barrel, down 12.20 yuan (-2.59%) from the previous day and down 34.50 yuan (-6.99%) from the previous week; WTI was at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.78 (1.34%) from the previous day and down $3.77 (-6.01%) from the previous week; Brent was at $62.04 per barrel, up $1.00 (1.64%) from the previous day and down $4.46 (-6.71%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Crude Oil**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $59.86 per barrel; Brent DTD was at $61.46 per barrel; Oman was at $59.56 per barrel; Dubai was at $59.56 per barrel; ESPO was at $55.43 per barrel [2]. - **Product Spreads**: The SC-WTI spread was $4.73 per barrel, down $2.47 (-34.30%) from the previous day and down $0.94 (-16.52%) from the previous week; the SC-Brent spread was $1.69 per barrel, down $2.69 (-61.42%) from the previous day and down $0.25 (-12.69%) from the previous week; the Brent-WTI spread was $3.04 per barrel, down $1.34 (-30.56%) from the previous day and up $1.11 (57.14%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot**: Diesel in East China was at 6,559.45 yuan per ton, down 61.09 yuan (-0.92%) from the previous day and down 121.73 yuan (-1.82%) from the previous week; gasoline in East China was at 7,746.55 yuan per ton, down 65.27 yuan (-0.84%) from the previous day and down 142.64 yuan (-1.81%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The strategic petroleum reserve was 398.54 million barrels, up 1.07 million barrels (0.27%); EIA US commercial crude oil was 440.41 million barrels, down 2.70 million barrels (-0.61%); Cushing crude oil was 25.70 million barrels, up 0.68 million barrels (2.73%); gasoline was 225.54 million barrels, down 4.00 million barrels (-1.74%); distillates were 107.82 million barrels, up 0.94 million barrels (0.88%) [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non-commercial net positions were 17.72 million contracts, up 0.63 million contracts (5.52%); commercial net positions were -18.35 million contracts, down 0.96 million contracts; non-reportable net positions were 0.63 million contracts, up 0.34 million contracts (114.44%) [2]. Industry News - After being attacked by Israel, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen stated that they would not give up supporting the Gaza Strip at any cost and would launch a devastating counterattack [3]. - The European Commission will propose a new sanctions package against Moscow's shadow oil tanker fleet, aiming to increase pressure on Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The proposed sanctions will cover 60 individuals and entities and include restrictions on about 150 ships [3]. - Kazakhstan is considering complying with its OPEC+ production cut obligations after Saudi Arabia reiterated that quota violators should comply with regulations [4]. - OPEC+ decided to increase daily production by an additional 411,000 barrels in June, which was regarded as a strategic change. Capital Economics lowered its year-end price forecast for Brent crude oil from $70 to $60 per barrel and the 2026 year-end forecast from $60 to $50 per barrel [4]. - The fourth round of Iran-US nuclear talks is expected to be held in Muscat, Oman, on May 11, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry has not confirmed this [4]. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US Treasury Secretary. He will then go to France to co-chair the 10th China-France High-Level Economic and Financial Dialogue from May 12 - 16 [5]. - Pakistan and India have started exchanges of fire on the Line of Control in Pakistan-administered Kashmir [5]. - US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 2 decreased by 4.494 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.854 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.974 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 2.242 million barrels [6]. - The EIA short-term energy outlook report expects the average prices of WTI crude oil this year and next year to be $61.81 and $55.24 per barrel respectively (previously $63.88 and $57.48 per barrel), and the average prices of Brent crude oil to be $65.85 and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $67.87 and $61.48 per barrel). It also expects global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day (previously 103.6 million barrels per day) and in 2026 to be 104.6 million barrels per day (previously 104.7 million barrels per day). US crude oil production in 2025 is expected to be 13.42 million barrels per day (previously 13.51 million barrels per day) and in 2026 to be 13.49 million barrels per day (previously 13.56 million barrels per day) [6]. - If the ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US do not yield satisfactory results, the EU plans to impose additional tariffs on about $113 billion worth of US goods [7]. - The Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that oil prices play a crucial role in Russia's budget and overall economy, but Russia's national interests are above all else. Russia is cooperating with OPEC+ to maintain oil prices at an optimal level [8].