1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of gold has not ended, and price fluctuations may intensify in the fourth quarter. Before the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, gold prices will benefit from the interest rate cut drive. After the cut in October, there will be more market games regarding interest rate cut expectations, Sino - US relations, and geopolitics, which may increase price volatility [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are still favorable for gold prices. The market has strengthened the trading of Fed interest rate cuts, and the Fed expects two more cuts this year. The US dollar will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, which is beneficial for gold [6]. - Uncertainties in the economy and politics have boosted the safe - haven property of gold. Since August, geopolitical situations such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation have intensified, and there are also uncertainties in US tariff policies, Fed independence, and fiscal debt, continuously driving up the demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' gold purchases continue, and ETF inflows are accelerating. Central banks around the world have been net buyers of gold for 14 consecutive quarters, and European and American gold ETFs have accelerated their inflows. The People's Bank of China has also increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months. However, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may affect future central bank gold - buying behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 After - market Judgment - Since the third quarter, gold has oscillated strongly and reached new historical highs, mainly driven by the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts. In the fourth quarter, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed in October is high, and before that, gold prices will benefit from this. After the cut, price fluctuations may intensify [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are positive for gold prices. The Fed's expected two more interest rate cuts this year and the low - level oscillation of the US dollar are favorable factors [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation, as well as uncertainties in the US economy and policies, have increased the safe - haven demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' continuous gold purchases and the acceleration of ETF inflows support the rise in gold prices, but the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be a risk factor [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - **Employment data**: In August, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The non - farm payrolls data for the past two months were revised down by a total of 21,000. The annual non - farm employment from March 2025 was revised down by 911,000, indicating a weakening employment market and strengthening the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [8]. - **Inflation data**: In August, the US PPI unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, the first negative value in four months. The CPI and core CPI data were in line with expectations, and inflation control did not hinder the September interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest rate decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in October exceeded 90%, and the Fed expected two more cuts this year, although there were differences among members [12]. - **Geopolitical situation**: In the Middle - East, Israeli military air - strikes in Lebanon and the US's veto of the UN Security Council's cease - fire resolution in Palestine - Israel have increased tensions. In Europe, there is a border stand - off between Poland and Russia, and the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks has also added uncertainty. In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased market risks [16][17][18]. - **US dollar trend**: Before September, the US dollar index continued to decline due to the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts. After the Fed meeting, the US dollar rebounded. Overall, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, and future trends depend on US economic data, especially employment data [21]. - **Economic performance**: The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations, while the service and composite PMIs were lower than expected. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line. The US retail sales and consumer spending were strong, and the second - quarter GDP was revised upwards [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect - **Central bank gold purchases**: In 2023 and 2024, central banks around the world had large - scale gold purchases. In July 2025, global official gold reserves increased by 10 tons, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months as of August [29]. - **Gold ETF inflows**: In August, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $5.5 billion, with North American and European funds being the main drivers. As of September 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased compared to the end of August [35].