美元信用受挫
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贵金属日报2025-10-10-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals due to the significant setback in the US dollar's credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, there is a large risk of price corrections in the short term, and once the prices are fully corrected, it presents a good opportunity to enter the market with long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 867 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 10646 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary of Market Conditions and Information - **Price Changes**: Shanghai gold fell 1.17% to 902.28 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.17% to 11078.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.55% to 3994.30 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 1.02% to 47.64 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 99.39 [2] - **Market Influences**: The US government faces a "shutdown" crisis due to budget issues, leading to the non - release of non - farm payroll and unemployment rate data, which impacts the US dollar's credit and is the main reason for the breakthrough rise in gold prices. The data on the number of initial and continued unemployment claims was also not released as scheduled. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will still release the September CPI data this month, but the release time is likely not to be October 15th [2] - **Fed's Stance**: The Fed meeting minutes show that officials have increased differences on the subsequent interest rate path. Most officials believe that further easing policies are appropriate this year. Many officials think the US labor market will not weaken continuously, but due to the lack of non - farm and unemployment data, the weakening of the labor market cannot be falsified, and the market still expects further interest rate cuts by the Fed [3] Group 4: Summary of Key Data Gold - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 3991.10 US dollars/ounce, down 1.71%; the trading volume was 448,400 lots, up 34.18%; the open interest was 528,800 lots, up 2.43%; the inventory was 1242 tons, down 0.39% [8] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 4019.25 US dollars/ounce, down 0.51% [8] - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 914.32 yuan/gram, up 4.57%; the trading volume was 285,500 lots, down 10.88%; the open interest was 426,900 lots, down 0.51%; the inventory was 70.73 tons, unchanged; the settled capital was 62.456 billion yuan, up 4.04% [8] - **Au(T + D)**: The closing price was 911.38 yuan/gram, up 4.59%; the trading volume was 51.45 tons, up 5.85%; the open interest was 223.66 tons, up 1.70% [8] Silver - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 47.66 US dollars/ounce, down 1.62%; the open interest was 165,800 lots, up 1.75%; the inventory was 16364 tons, down 0.39% [8] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 49.71 US dollars/ounce, up 1.43% [8] - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 11,169.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.30%; the trading volume was 1,005,700 lots, down 27.08%; the open interest was 784,100 lots, down 0.13%; the inventory was 1186.85 tons, down 0.46%; the settled capital was 23.647 billion yuan, up 2.17% [8] - **Ag(T + D)**: The closing price was 11,176.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.94%; the trading volume was 592.68 tons, down 50.87%; the open interest was 3102.18 tons, down 2.74% [8]