贵金属日报 2025-10-10 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 1.17 %，报 902.28 元/克，沪银跌 1.17 %，报 11078.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.55 %， 报 3994.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 1.02 %，报 47.64 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.14%，美元指数报 99.39 ； 受制于预算原因，美国政府当前面临"关门"危机，原定于上周五公布的非农就业及失业率数 据并未按时发布。这一现象进一步对美元信用形成冲击，是黄金价格出现突破上涨的主要原因。 原定于昨日公布的美国当周首次申请失业救济人数及续申请失业金人数未能及时公布，劳动 力。关于劳动路市场的高频数据继续缺失。但据美国媒体报道，美国劳工统计局仍将在本月公 布 9 月 CPI 数据，但发布时间大概率将不会是原定的 10 月 15 日。 美联储会议纪要则显示，联储官员对于后续利率路径的分歧加大，但纪要显示"大部分官员认 为在今年实行进一步的宽松政策是合适的"，对于劳动力市场，许多联储官员认为当前的美国 劳动力市场不会出现持续弱化。但当前非农和失业率数据缺失的情况下，劳动力市场走弱的现 ...

贵金属日报 2025-10-09 贵金属 【行情资讯】 早盘，COMEX 金跌 0.80 %，报 4037.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 1.57 %，报 48.23 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 98.83 ； 国庆期间，海外发生多个风险事件，美元信用受到进一步冲击，金银价格呈现趋势性上涨格局。 受制于预算原因，美国政府当前面临"关门"危机，原定于上周五公布的非农就业及失业率数 据并未按时发布。这一现象进一步对美元信用形成冲击，是黄金价格出现突破上涨的主要原因。 今日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要则显示，联储官员对于后续利率路径的分歧加大，但纪要显示 "大部分官员认为在今年实行进一步的宽松政策是合适的"，对于劳动力市场，许多联储官员 认为当前的美国劳动力市场不会出现持续弱化。但当前非农和失业率数据缺失的情况下，劳动 力市场走弱的现状难以证伪，市场仍旧预计联储后续进一步的降息操作。 【策略观点】 在美元信用显著受挫，联储降息预期维持的背景下，对于贵金属仍应当维持中期的多头思路， 当前外盘黄金价格已突破 4000 美元/盎司一线，银价也达到 49 美元/盎司的历史新高附近， ...

数据显示，截至2025年8月29日，中证500质量成长指数(930939)前十大权重股分别为东吴证券(601555)、华工科技(000988)、恺英网络(002517)、水晶光电 (002273)、恒玄科技(688608)、春风动力(603129)、天山铝业(002532)、长江证券(000783)、顺络电子(002138)、金诚信(603979)，前十大权重股合计占比 21.48%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601552 | 东吴证券 | -1.78% | 2.70% | | 002517 | 恺英网络 | -5.46% | 2.46% | | 688608 | 恒玄科技 | -2.15% | 2.12% | | 000988 | 华工科技 | 8.59% | 2.11% | | 688617 | 惠泰医疗 | 6.93% | 1.99% | | 603129 | 春风动力 | 1.77% | 1.88% | | 002273 | 水晶光电 | -2.59% | 1.87% | | 002532 | 天山铝业 | -1.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2509 rising by 0.03%. Overall, it slightly increased under the situation of rising supply and insufficient demand. In the first half of the week, the price rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but in the second half, the data revised the expectation and the price declined [4]. - The start - up rate is rising, and the output is increasing. The start - up rate of primary lead is still stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product income is stable. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to the continuous fluctuation of lead prices. The supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, with a tight supply of waste batteries at the raw material end and low confidence of smelters. The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional consumption peak season, the actual spot trading is average when the price rises, and the overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage. Although the consumption increment expectation in August is weak, there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, which reflects the improvement of overall demand. It is expected that the overall supply of Shanghai lead will remain flat next week, the demand will gradually increase, and it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will mainly fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200, with a stop - loss range of 16,300 - 17,300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated. The main contract 2509 was active, rising by 0.03%. It was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in the first half of the week and data revision in the second half [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The start - up rate and output are rising. The supply of primary lead is relatively stable, while the supply of secondary lead has regional differences and is relatively tight. The demand for lead is mainly in the lead - acid battery field, and it is in a slow recovery stage. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200, with a stop - loss range of 16,300 - 17,300 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead declined slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio decreased. As of August 14, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1,938 per ton, the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was 16,730 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.63 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, while the foreign premium and discount weakened. As of August 13, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 30 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 40.87 dollars per ton [12][16]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 66,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons; the number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 61,784 tons, an increase of 3,128 tons [29][33]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Side**: - **Primary Lead**: As of August 7, 2025, the average start - up rate of primary lead in major production areas was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84% compared with last week; the weekly output was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week [18][20]. - **Secondary Lead**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic output of secondary lead in major production areas was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 47.44%, a decrease of 0.9% compared with the previous period. The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged at 68 as of July 31, 2025 [24][27][37]. - **Trade**: In June, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.69% and a year - on - year increase of 133.69%. The import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, and the import volume of lead alloy was 10,657 tons. From January to June, the total export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89%; the total import volume was 75,013 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 152.1% [39][41]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Processing Fees**: As of July 31, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrates was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee for imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - 60 dollars per thousand tons, both remaining flat [44][46]. - **Automobile Sales**: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the automobile sales volume was 2.593 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative automobile sales volume was 18.269 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4%. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 8.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 38.5% [48][50]. - **Product Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,890 yuan per ton, both remaining flat [52][54].

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July meeting, with two members voting against this decision, marking the first such occurrence since 1993[1] - The statement shifted from a dovish tone to a more hawkish stance, with Powell emphasizing the strength of the labor market and the distance of inflation from the target[1][2] Economic Outlook - Powell acknowledged the economy's growth has moderated, with the assessment changing from "expand at a solid pace" to "moderated"[1][2] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 45%, down from previous expectations, reflecting a cumulative decline of 7 basis points in rate cut expectations for the year[1][3] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose by 6 basis points and 2 basis points, reaching 3.94% and 4.37% respectively[1] - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.4% to 99.8, while the S&P 500 and gold prices fell by 0.8% and 0.9% to $3324 per ounce respectively[1] Employment and Inflation Insights - Powell highlighted a solid labor market but admitted to existing downside risks, with hiring slowing and labor supply decreasing[2][3] - Tariffs are contributing to inflation, with companies expected to gradually pass on costs to consumers, keeping inflation slightly above the Fed's target even when excluding tariff impacts[2] Future Rate Cut Considerations - The potential for a rate cut in September hinges on economic data from July and August, particularly employment and inflation metrics[3] - If employment data weakens or tariff impacts on inflation are less than expected, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the September meeting[3]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with major US indices rising collectively, while the German DAX index experienced a slight pullback[3] - The UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 indices increased, while the Taiwan Weighted Index and India's SENSEX30 saw declines[3] Economic Negotiations - Key economic negotiations between China, the US, and Europe are set to progress next week, with significant meetings scheduled between leaders[3] - Trump indicated a 50% chance of a US-EU agreement, while the US expressed optimism regarding US-China talks[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is low, but pressure is mounting on the Fed from Trump, who highlighted a $3.1 billion budget overrun on Fed renovations[3] - The FOMC's outlook on future rate cuts is expected to change significantly, influenced by recent economic data and ongoing trade negotiations[3] Investment Strategy - Increased market volatility is anticipated, with a focus on sectors showing high growth potential, such as nuclear power and AI[3] - The upcoming FOMC meeting and corporate earnings reports are likely to contribute to market fluctuations, particularly in the tech and consumer sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3]

Global Market Performance - The global stock market showed mixed results last week, with the US indices displaying divergence; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose while the Dow Jones experienced a slight pullback [3] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 and DAX indices increased, whereas the CAC40 index saw a minor decline [3] - The Asia-Pacific region also had mixed results, with the SENSEX30 index in India retreating [3] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [3] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3] - The impact of tariffs on specific product categories is becoming more pronounced, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Stablecoin Legislation - On July 17, the US Congress passed three significant bills regarding stablecoin regulation, which were signed into law by President Trump [4] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with US dollars, enhancing the security of funds held by users [4] - The CLARITY Act delineates the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, establishing a framework for digital assets linked to blockchain technology [6] - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional authorization, ensuring that the future of digital dollars remains in the private sector [7] Market Implications of Legislation - The passage of these bills is expected to create a new dominance in the digital finance sector, reinforcing the US's position in the global cryptocurrency market [8] - By binding stablecoins closely to the US dollar, the legislation aims to strengthen the dollar's role in the international monetary system [8] - The demand for US Treasury bonds may diversify as stablecoin issuers are likely to purchase them, alleviating selling pressure and potentially lowering government borrowing costs [8] Market Strategy - Following recent highs in the US stock market, caution is advised due to potential volatility stemming from ongoing tariff negotiations and changing interest rate expectations [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty interest rate trades and sectors with strong growth potential, such as nuclear power and semiconductors, as a strategy to navigate increased market fluctuations [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices have surged, reaching over $39 per ounce, marking a significant increase of 1.76% in a single day and a year-to-date rise of 35% [1][2] - The recent price increase is attributed to several factors, including silver being undervalued relative to gold, increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and overall strong performance in the base metals market [2] - The World Silver Association reported a net inflow of 95 million ounces into silver ETPs in the first half of 2025, reflecting a bullish price outlook, with the value of holdings exceeding $40 billion for the first time in June [3] Group 2 - The silver price increase has continued into July, with a year-to-date rise of 27%, aligning closely with gold prices [4] - The World Silver Association anticipates strong two-way activity in the coin and bar market in the coming months, despite potential weakness in demand for newly minted products [4] - If silver prices surpass $40, market reactions may vary, with some investors likely to take profits while others may enter the market, expecting further price increases [4]

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, driven by a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[2][5] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly, with an increase of only 74,000 jobs, down from 137,000 in May[8] Wage and Labor Market Trends - Hourly wage growth on a year-over-year basis decreased to 3.7%, down from 3.8% in May[9] - The average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, a decrease of 0.1 hours from the previous month[16] - Labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%[17] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for July have decreased, with market pricing reflecting a cumulative cut of 51 basis points by 2025, down from 61 basis points[2][5] - The report indicates potential risks to employment growth in Q3 due to tariffs and immigration slowdowns, leading to a forecast of two preventive rate cuts in September and December[5][6] - The NFIB's hiring intentions suggest an increased risk of weakening job growth in the coming months[10]

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, primarily due to a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[1] - The labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points, potentially due to immigration policies[1] Wage and Hourly Earnings - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1] - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages decreased from 3.6% to 3.2%[5] - Average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, down from 34.3 hours[6] Sector Performance - Private sector job growth weakened, with a decline of 63,000 jobs to 74,000 in June, particularly in the service sector[5] - Government employment surged, contributing over half of the new jobs, with state and local government jobs rising significantly from 32,000 to 80,000[5] - The service sector saw a notable slowdown, with education and healthcare services declining by 32,000 jobs to 51,000[5] Market Implications - Due to the stronger-than-expected employment data, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July decreased, with market pricing for cumulative rate cuts in 2025 falling by 10 basis points to 51 basis points[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year and 10-year yields increasing by 12 basis points and 8 basis points, respectively, to 3.88% and 4.34%[1]