美元国际储备地位
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管涛:美元国际储备地位下降未必会催生弱美元︱汇海观涛
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-18 12:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the relationship between the changes in the dollar's international reserve status and the strength of the dollar index is unstable, and the impact of de-dollarization on the dollar exchange rate should not be overestimated [1][13][24] - In 2025, the ICE dollar index fell by 9.4%, marking the largest annual decline in eight years, while the global dollar foreign exchange reserve share dropped to 56.92%, the lowest since 1999 [1][12] - The decline in dollar reserves is accompanied by a rise in gold reserves, which increased by 11.93 percentage points since the end of 2021, indicating a shift towards physical reserve assets [9][10] Group 2 - Since 2008, the dollar index has not shown significant weakness, with a cumulative increase of 20.5% by 2025, despite a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves [2][12] - The dollar's share in global international payments increased to 48.15% in 2025, reflecting its continued dominance in international transactions [17] - Private sector interest in dollar assets remains strong, with a net inflow of international capital into the U.S. of $1.13 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a net outflow of official foreign capital [21][24]