金价狂飙、美元贬值，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比连续下滑。2025年，美元信用遭遇严重挑战。 去年金价狂飙美元贬值 美元信用裂痕扩大 2025年全球央行纷纷增持黄金，以增强资产组合的多元性与稳定性，这导致国际黄金价格大涨。金价在2025年年内50多次刷新历史新高，伦敦现货黄金累计 涨幅超过60%。 与之相反的是，美元指数从2025年年初的108附近，下跌到年底的98左右，累计跌幅9.4%，创下8年来最差表现。 美元在全球外汇储备中的占比也是一跌再跌。国际货币基金组织发布的数据显示，2025年第三季度，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比从第二季度的57.08%下 降至56.92%，连续超10个季度低于60%，创1995年以来的最低值。 东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司研究发展部执行总监 冯琳：美元信用体系面临结构性挑战，全球资产配置正在加速去美元化。再加上美国政府频繁地将美 元武器化，动辄对他国实施金融制裁，导致全球市场对美元的信心发生了动摇，而且这一趋势还会持续下去。 黄金储备超越美债 全球资产加速去美元化 记者还注意到，2025年全球资产去美元化趋势明显。随着越来越多国家增持黄金，全球央行黄金持有量时隔近30年再度超越美 ...

2025年12月，全球资本市场的历史性转折点被一组数据刻下印记：黄金价格突破4500美元/盎司，全年涨幅超过70%；白银价格飙升至79美元/盎司，年内暴 涨174%；铂金涨幅突破150%，创下自1987年有记录以来的最大年度涨幅。 与此同时，美元资产配置比例降至近20年最低点，加拿大魁北克储蓄投资集团等机构宣布削减占其组合40% 的美国资产，转而增配欧洲市场。 2025年初，特朗普重返白宫后推出的"对等关税"政策，成为美元资产信任崩塌的导火索。4月2日关税政策宣布当天，美国市场出现罕见的"股债汇三杀"，道 琼斯指数单日下跌3.2%，10年期美债收益率突破5%，美元指数跌破100关口。 这种波动并非孤立事件——7月，美国再度对日韩等国加征40% 关税时，亚洲与欧洲市场反应平淡，美股却应声下跌，标志着市场对美国政策的敏感度已超 过外部风险。 美元信用的动摇更深层次源于债务与货币政策的失控。美国联邦政府债务规模在2025年突破38.5万亿美元，债务年增速高达3万亿美元，利息支出甚至超过 国防预算。为缓解债务压力，特朗普公开要求美联储大幅降息，甚至宣称"任何不同意我的人，永远不会成为美联储主席"。 这种政治干预直接冲 ...

离岸人民币对美元汇率"破7"，并非简单的数字变化，而是国际金融体系结构性变革浪潮中的一个 重要信号，一个以美元为中心的国际货币秩序正经历深刻重塑。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率突破 7.0关口。这个数字背后，是一场国际金融权力格局的静默变迁。从布雷顿森林体系到如今的浮动汇率 时代，美元体系始终是全球贸易和金融运行的支柱，但这一支柱正显现出结构性裂痕。 美元主导体系的三重危机 美元主导的国际货币体系，是二战后形成的一套制度性安排。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，截至 2025年第三季度，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已由本世纪初的72%下降至58%，但仍然是国际贸易结 算中占比最高的货币。 美元体系主要通过三大核心机制实现对全球经济的结构性影响：一是大宗商品美元计价机制，二是 全球贸易美元结算机制，三是金融资产美元标价机制。石油、铁矿石等关键大宗商品普遍以美元计价并 结算，客观上迫使各国必须持有大量美元储备。根据环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT）统计，2024年全 球贸易结算中美元占比仍高达46%，尽管这一比例较2015年的约55%已明显下降。 2025年以来，美元指数累计下跌超过10%，创下自1973年以来的最差 ...

截至10时44分，伦敦金报4497.45美元/盎司，涨0.4%；伦敦银报74.535美元/盎司，涨近4%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 张骄）12月26日，现货黄金、白银继续"狂飙"。当日，伦敦现货黄金收复 4500美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及4531.284美元/盎司，刷新历史高位；伦敦现货白银高开高走，一度 突破75美元/盎司，再创历史新高，盘中大涨逾4%。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对上海证券报记者表示，国际货币体系多极化近年来显著加速。2022年 至今，地缘政治风险的爆发，逐渐动摇了全球对美元资产安全性的信任。单一的"去美元化"并不足够， 因为其他资产同样可能面临风险。正因如此，多国央行增持黄金，以对冲地缘政治和货币体系的双重不 确定性。 浦银安盛周期优选基金经理高翔告诉上证报记者，美元信用面临长期下行压力。全球央行持有的传统避 险资产美债，其安全性或因潜在违约风险而受到挑战。许多央行正将部分美元和美债换为黄金，这一巨 大买盘将对金价形成有力支撑。 "当前大概率处于黄金'牛市'中期阶段，未见反转信号。"东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对上证报记者表 示，全球央行购金趋势延续、全球 ...

美元指数日K线图 港伦敦金日K线图 美元信用的裂痕，在2025年被一次又一次地撕扯，裂口愈发扩大。 "对等关税"引发的全球贸易震荡、美元资产的抛售潮、美国政府创纪录停摆等事件，就像美元信用基座 的一根根柱石被不断踢倒。美元指数仅上半年就跌超10%，现货黄金年内飙升近68%，成为2025年国际 金融市场最鲜明的注脚。 与此同时，在2025年，人民币站在贸易与金融的交汇处，书写新的国际化叙事：一方面，借贸易"东 风"，人民币在国际贸易融资、结算中迅猛发展；另一方面，在顶层设计的政策推动下，资本项目开放 有望成为人民币国际化进阶的关键突破，为全球金融格局多元化注入崭新动力。 2025年4月，国际金融市场见证了罕见的一幕：受"对等关税"政策影响，全球贸易紧张局势急剧升级， 在恐慌情绪主导下，美国金融市场上演股债汇"三杀"局面。 美东时间4月3日至4日，美股三大指数接连重挫，道指、纳指、标普500指数两个交易日内分别累计下跌 9.26%、11.44%和10.53%。美债市场也面临恐慌性抛售，10年期美债收益率在4月7日当周累计上涨48个 基点至4.5%附近，30年期美债收益率行至5%关口附近。美元指数震荡下跌，全月累计 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管委、意大利央行行长法比奥·帕内塔表示，国际货币体系可能会从美元 转向几种共存的全球货币体系。帕内塔周二表示，尽管美元仍将是关键货币，但世界"可能会逐渐走向 更加多极化的格局"，这种转变可能会带来更大的多元化，但如果协调出现问题，也可能加剧波动性和 传染风险。 帕内塔表示，良好的治理是管控此类风险的关键。他指出，货币稳定的支柱仍然是国家权威和独立的中 央银行。 国际清算银行9月份发布的三年一度的调查显示，美元继续主导全球外汇市场，在所有交易中占比高达 89.2%，高于2022年的88.4%。欧元的份额从30.6%下滑至28.9%，而日元的份额则基本保持稳定，为 16.8%。 欧洲一直在努力加强其战略自主性，其中包括赋予欧元更大的全球影响力。欧盟已改善跨境支付，加强 流动性支持，并致力于提升金融基础设施的数字化水平。帕内塔表示，欧洲需要流动性更强的资本市场 和投资更高的经济，才能在国际货币体系中发挥更大的作用。 他表示，展望未来，美元的未来发展"将取决于一些缓慢变化的因素，例如美元一些传统支柱的削弱、 中国的崛起以及欧洲在更深层次一体化方面取得的进展"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges facing the US dollar's credibility in the long term, highlighting a potential restructuring of the international monetary system if allied nations collectively lose confidence in the dollar [1][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - In September, the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points, which is not directly indicative of a weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - The Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is under pressure, particularly with deteriorating employment data and inflation concerns stemming from Trump's tariffs [3][4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates was made despite external pressures for larger cuts, indicating a commitment to its established policy path [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Dollar - The Federal Reserve is facing a triple dilemma: policy indecision, confusion in monetary policy expectations, and threats to its independence [1][5]. - Trump's interventions in Fed policy and potential changes in leadership could further undermine the Fed's independence and the dollar's credibility [5][6]. - The ongoing trade policies and tariffs under Trump's administration are eroding the dollar's international standing and could lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary order [6][7]. Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The article notes a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting a shift towards a multipolar international monetary system, with emerging markets increasing their gold reserves [6][12]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global reserves does not automatically benefit other non-dollar currencies, as they face their own structural challenges [12][13]. - The potential for a "de-dollarization" trend is highlighted, particularly if allied nations lose faith in the dollar due to ongoing US economic policies [6][7]. Group 4: Implications for China - China is encouraged to recognize the opportunity presented by the US's declining global economic leadership and to enhance the international status of the renminbi [13][14]. - Strengthening the domestic economy and improving the financial market system are crucial for increasing the attractiveness of renminbi assets [14][15]. - Historical lessons from the euro and yen's internationalization processes emphasize the importance of economic strength and the establishment of a robust currency settlement function [16][17].

Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) has made significant progress, with daily global trading volume reaching $817 billion, accounting for 8.5% of the global foreign exchange market [1] - The RMB is now the fifth most traded currency globally, with its share rapidly closing in on the British Pound, which has decreased from 12.9% to 10.2% [1] - The RMB's status as a settlement and investment currency has improved, with cross-border RMB payments reaching 35 trillion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase [2] Dimension 1: Settlement Currency - The RMB has become the largest settlement currency for China's external payments and the second-largest trade financing currency globally [2] - In the first half of 2025, RMB cross-border payment amounts reached 6.4 trillion yuan, representing 28% of total cross-border payments, marking a historical high [2] Dimension 2: Investment Currency - As of July 2023, foreign entities held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic RMB financial assets, with RMB bonds and stocks included in major global asset indices [2] - Offshore RMB deposits reached 1.6 trillion yuan, with offshore RMB bonds and Panda bonds issued by foreign institutions totaling approximately 2 trillion yuan [2] Dimension 3: Reserve Currency - Over 80 foreign central banks have included the RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, with its share in global reserves rising to 2.88% in Q1 2025, up from 1.08% in 2016, reflecting a growth of over 270% [2] New Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - The current trend towards a multipolar international monetary system presents new opportunities for RMB internationalization [3] - The decline of the US dollar's dominance in global reserves and payments is paving the way for non-USD currencies like the RMB to gain traction [3] - China's economic stability and financial market openness provide a solid foundation for RMB internationalization [3] Expansion of RMB's Network - As of September 30, 2023, the People's Bank of China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 32 countries, totaling approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, enhancing RMB liquidity globally [4] Unique Path for RMB Internationalization - The RMB internationalization process is market-driven, focusing on facilitating trade and investment while removing barriers to RMB usage [5] - The offshore RMB market is expected to become a key arena for RMB internationalization, particularly in direct foreign investment [5] Offshore RMB Market Development - Recommendations include increasing the supply of offshore RMB safe assets and expanding onshore markets to enhance the availability of RMB as a reserve currency [6] - The digital RMB is anticipated to create new pathways for RMB internationalization, optimizing resource allocation and reducing transaction costs [6] Conclusion - With ongoing economic development, financial market openness, and international cooperation, the RMB is poised to play a more significant role in the global monetary system, contributing to the diversification of the global financial landscape [7]

Group 1 - China has sold $53.7 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds over four months, reducing its holdings to a ten-year low of $730.7 billion, indicating a strategic shift in response to U.S.-China economic tensions [1][3] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is part of a long-term strategy by China, which has alternated between increasing and decreasing its holdings, with a significant focus on reducing exposure to U.S. assets [3][8] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability, while the freezing of Russian assets has heightened global apprehension regarding the safety of dollar-denominated assets [3][10] Group 2 - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has divested its 17-year stake in BYD, coinciding with a decline in the company's energy transportation profits and insurance underwriting profits, reflecting a broader shift from Chinese to U.S. assets [5][6] - The divestment from BYD began in August 2022 and was completed in the first quarter of 2025, yielding a return of 3890% on the initial investment of $230 million [6][8] - Following Buffett's exit, foreign investment institutions began to reduce their exposure to Chinese stocks, particularly in the renewable energy sector, leading to a significant drop in BYD's stock price [5][8] Group 3 - The financial strategies of China and Buffett's actions reflect a mutual desire to reduce dependence on each other's economic systems, contributing to a broader trend of "de-dollarization" [8][12] - The International Monetary Fund estimates that a complete economic decoupling between the U.S. and China could shrink global GDP by 7%, equating to a loss of $7.4 trillion [10] - The ongoing financial tensions have led to significant shifts in global supply chains, with Southeast Asian countries benefiting from the reallocation of investments and trade [10][12] Group 4 - The trend of central banks increasing gold purchases has reached a historical high, with global demand for gold totaling 4,974 tons in 2024, indicating a shift towards alternative assets [12] - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being challenged, with countries exploring alternatives for cross-border payments, although a complete abandonment of the dollar is unlikely in the short term [12] - The financial adjustments by both China and Buffett illustrate the ongoing transformation of the global economic landscape, driven by the interplay of national security and market logic [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD reflects a stable economic environment and effective monetary policies, with the RMB maintaining a reasonable equilibrium level despite external pressures [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Trends - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate has rebounded, recovering the 7.2 mark, with a year-to-date appreciation of 1.9% as of mid-2023 [1][4]. - As of July 23, the central parity rate was set at 7.1414 RMB per USD, marking a 46 basis point increase from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB was trading around 7.15890, up over 1100 basis points from the previous day [1]. Economic Factors Influencing RMB - Domestic economic recovery is evident, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2023 [5]. - Market expectations suggest a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [5]. - The balance of international payments remains stable, with RMB assets retaining attractiveness for cross-border capital flows [5]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - The foreign exchange market is characterized by rational trading behavior, with no significant unilateral expectations for RMB appreciation or depreciation [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of 2023, supported by easing global tariff risks and a recovery in capital markets [5][6]. Global Currency Trends - The dollar index has weakened significantly, dropping 10.8% in the first half of 2023, the worst performance since 1973, leading to a shift in global asset allocation away from USD [2][9]. - The IMF reports a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves to 57.7%, with increasing interest in gold, euros, and RMB as alternative safe-haven assets [2][9]. RMB as a Reserve Currency - The RMB's status as a reserve currency is on the rise, with 30% of central banks planning to increase their RMB reserves over the next decade [9][10]. - The RMB has become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally, reflecting its growing international acceptance [10]. Future Outlook - The RMB's internationalization is expected to continue, with a projected increase in its share of global reserves from the current level to 6% over the next decade [9][10]. - The ongoing diversification of currency reserves among central banks indicates a long-term trend towards increased RMB allocation, particularly in emerging markets [9][10].