Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a weak market consolidation, trading at 1.3130, down 0.11% from the previous day's close, with a narrow trading range of 1.3125-1.3150 [1] - The upcoming UK October CPI data is expected to significantly influence the Bank of England's future monetary policy path, as current UK economic data is in a phase of stagnation [1] - The fluctuations in the US dollar index are identified as a key variable affecting the short-term movements of the GBP, with ongoing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts impacting market expectations [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD has been trading within a narrow range of 1.3125-1.3160 for three consecutive days, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [2] - The primary resistance level is set at 1.3150, and a breakthrough could open up upward movement towards 1.3180, while support is focused on 1.3125, with a potential drop to 1.3100 if breached [2] - The daily chart indicates that the exchange rate is still in a correction phase following a previous rebound, with bearish momentum showing signs of weakening but not fully dissipated [2]

中信证券研报称，欧洲央行6月如期降息25bps，决议声明立场中性，下调今明两年的总体通胀预测，维 持核心通胀预测和经济增长预测大致不变，强调前景的双向不确定性。中信证券预计欧洲央行今年下半 年不再降息，从而维持存款便利利率于2%。美元指数近期可能会继续在100下方偏弱震荡，但进一步下 跌的空间或较有限。 ...