（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，欧洲央行管委Kocher表示，欧洲央行降息步伐已接近尾声，欧洲央行必须做好应对潜在危机的 准备。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is showing an upward trend against the US Dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.1623, reflecting a 0.07% increase. Despite a bleak economic outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the coming months [1]. Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP for Q3 is expected to show slight growth of approximately 0.1%, which is more optimistic than the ECB's own forecast of flat GDP for the quarter [1]. - The ECB may view the current economic weakness as temporary, primarily impacted by a significant decline in manufacturing output [1]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD pair experienced a short-term upward adjustment after a previous decline, breaking through four-hour resistance levels, leading to a strong closing on the last trading day [1]. - On a monthly basis, the Euro is supported at the 1.1100 level, indicating a long-term bullish outlook above this position [2]. - Weekly analysis shows that the Euro is under pressure at the 1.1680 level, which serves as a critical support and resistance point for medium-term trends [1][2]. Short-term Analysis - Daily resistance for the Euro against the Dollar is at the 1.1680 level, with ongoing pressure below this point [2]. - Short-term support is identified in the 1.1590-1.1600 range, with expectations for adjustments based on this support level [2].

Core Insights - Despite a gloomy economic outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to lower interest rates in the coming months [1] - The estimated GDP growth for the Eurozone in Q3 is approximately 0.1%, which is more optimistic than the ECB's own forecast of flat GDP for the quarter [1] - The ECB may view the current economic weakness as temporary, primarily driven by a significant decline in manufacturing output [1] - A substantial improvement in GDP data is required to increase the likelihood of the ECB lowering interest rates in December or early next year [1]

Group 1 - Traders are betting on options trading, anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will unexpectedly lower interest rates multiple times before mid-next year, with a target of up to three 25 basis point cuts by June, significantly higher than the 10 basis points implied by the money market [1][3] - The most profitable outcome from these bets could yield nearly €9 million (approximately $10.5 million), which is over 30 times the initial investment, although the probability of success is less than 1% [1] - The total number of open contracts benefiting from a rate cut, expiring in June, has reached 1.35 million, more than double the level from five weeks ago, with the largest increase seen in contracts expiring in September, which rose by 50% [3] Group 2 - Following the ECB's reduction of the deposit rate to 2% in June, policymakers have indicated that the tightening cycle is nearing its end, while the market has gradually lowered the likelihood of further easing [3] - Economists predict that the ECB's deposit rate will remain at 2% until 2027, yet some analysts continue to forecast further rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley expecting the benchmark rate to drop to 1.5% by March due to anticipated economic slowdown and wage growth deceleration [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that major financial data in China is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, supported by ongoing policy efforts, with the RMB exchange rate likely to show a stable upward trend [1][2] - The total financing in China is projected to expand steadily, with high-speed growth in key areas and government bond financing remaining at a high level [2] - Interest rates are expected to continue to decline moderately, providing a favorable monetary environment for real economy financing [2] Group 2 - The global economic growth outlook is mixed, with increasing uncertainties on the demand side and relative stability on the supply side [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again has increased, with expectations of two rate cuts in the fourth quarter [3] - Geopolitical factors will continue to significantly influence global capital flows, and the dollar index is expected to remain weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in inflation in the Eurozone is likely to lead to the European Central Bank (ECB) considering interest rate cuts next year [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ECB has maintained its key interest rates unchanged in recent policy meetings, indicating resilience in the Eurozone economy and effective control over inflation [1] - Wage growth is slowing down, and commodity prices are decreasing, which may result in the core inflation rate falling below 2% next year [1] - Overall inflation is expected to decline further as energy prices soften [1] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The potential decrease in inflation could prompt ECB policymakers to lower borrowing costs [1]

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1732 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.12% from the previous closing price of 1.1746 [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Simon Dangoor predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will conduct its last rate cut of the current cycle in December, given the multiple uncertainties facing the economy [1] - Dangoor emphasizes that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut rates further and prefers to wait for clearer signals regarding global trade conditions and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The key support levels for the overall bullish trend are identified at 1.1700 and approximately 1.1710, with potential downside targets at 1.1660 [2] - On the upside, the intraday high is noted at 1.1790, with resistance levels at 1.1850 and 1.1878 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not see a need to lower interest rates at this time, despite a weak economic growth and an inflation rate around 2% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rates - ECB Governing Council member Kazaks stated that there is currently no justification for lowering interest rates, as the inflation rate is approximately 2% and economic growth is weak [1] Economic Outlook - The ECB maintained borrowing costs unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, with most policymakers agreeing that further rate cuts are unnecessary, while keeping the option to act if needed [1] - Kazaks emphasized the high uncertainty in the global economic landscape, particularly due to geopolitical factors, and noted that the central bank is closely monitoring economic developments [1] Potential Actions - Kazaks indicated that if economic conditions worsen further or if inflation significantly drops below the 2% target, the ECB may consider implementing rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Deloitte predicts that U.S. retail sales growth during the winter holiday season will hit a new low since the pandemic, with expected growth of 2.9-3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% due to economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade policies [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has a 60% probability of a final 25 basis point rate cut in December, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market and inflation falling significantly below targets due to declining energy prices and a stronger euro [1] - Danske Bank analysts highlight that the U.S. August PPI will be closely watched as it precedes the August CPI release and may provide early clues on the accumulation of tariff-related costs [2] Group 2 - InTouch Capital Markets analysts suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve would require core inflation data to be significantly below expectations, but the likelihood of a large cut remains low due to sticky service prices and the Fed's gradual policy approach [2] - City Index strategists warn that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could potentially harm market confidence more than it would benefit, indicating that the Fed is likely to avoid appearing to yield to political pressure [2] - Leuthold Group strategists argue that the Fed's 2% inflation target should be viewed as a reference point rather than a strict constraint, noting that a slightly higher inflation rate could coexist with stable growth [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) member Rehn refuted market speculation that there will be no further interest rate cuts in the coming months, indicating that current inflation risks are clearly "biased downwards" [1] - Rehn warned against complacency regarding price stability, despite the annual inflation rate meeting the ECB's 2% medium-term target for the past two months [1] - He highlighted several downward risks to be monitored, including falling energy prices, euro appreciation, and controlled service sector inflation [1] Group 2 - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently experiencing a range-bound movement, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742 [2] - A breakthrough above this level could open up further upside potential, targeting 1.1788 and the high of 1.1830 from July 2025 [2] - The initial support level is at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1514, with further support at the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly bottom of 1.1210 [2]