周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间11:45分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1628，涨幅0.11%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1615。巴克莱目前认为，欧洲央行有可能 选择在12月降息一次，而不是此前预测的9月降息。 该行经济学家马里亚诺·西纳说，这一修正考虑到了下半年经济活动的疲软，这是由贸易政策的持续拖 累和美国早些时候提前进口的影响造成的。巴克莱预计，到12月，有关贸易逆风的信号将更加清晰，对 供应链中断影响通胀的担忧也会减少。此外，对2026年财政计划不会重燃通胀压力的信心可能增强，将 支持降息25个基点。巴克莱预计，到2026年，欧洲央行的终端存款利率将保持在1.75%。 欧元兑美元阻力位首先为7月24日创下的周高点1.1788，其上方是7月1日的年内高点1.1830，而2021年9 月3日的高点1.1909则位于心理关口1.2000下方不远处。另一方面，初步支撑位在100日简单移动平均线 （SMA）1.1460，其次是8月1日的底部1.1391和5月29日的周低点1.1210。动量表现缺乏说服力：相对强 弱指数（RSI）已降至52以下，表明上行动能正在减 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月22日电欧元区薪资增长的一项关键指标大幅上升，使欧洲央行在进一步降息问题上更 趋谨慎。 欧洲央行周五表示，第二季度谈判工资同比增长3.95%，高于第一季度的2.46%，但仍低于2024年创下 的5.4%峰值。欧洲央行将通胀稳定在2%的信心，依赖于薪资涨幅的放缓以及劳动密集型服务业目前仍 接近3%的价格涨幅的回落。欧洲央行针对20国的薪资追踪指标显示，薪资增速将在明年初显著回落。 市场普遍预计欧洲央行将在9月将关键存款利率维持在2%。 ...

当前欧元/美元汇价在1.1455至1.1829区间内波动，价格虽然呈现震荡走势，但短期内没有突破上方 1.1829的强阻力位，亦未突破下方1.1455的支撑位。价格依旧受到布林带的限制，暗示短期内可能会维 持区间震荡，等待更明确的市场推动因素。 周四（8月21日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元下跌，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间11:38分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1644，跌幅0.06%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1651。荷兰国际集团（ING）的经济学家彼 得·范登·豪特在一份报告中指出，欧元区6月零售销售环比增长0.3%，扭转了5月的0.3%跌幅，这一数据 表明消费者需求正在复苏。 他认为，在特朗普关税言论和欧元走强等外部不利因素可能拖累出口的背景下，强劲的国内需求正变得 日益重要，并可能成为2025年下半年经济增长的主要支撑。得益于欧盟与美国达成的贸易协议，以及消 费者良好的财务状况，该经济学家认为下半年出现负增长的风险已基本消散。这一积极信号引发了一个 关键问题：欧洲央行是否还有必要继续大幅降息。范登·豪特仅预测欧洲央行未来将再进行一次25个基 点的降息。这意味着，如果消费数据持续向好，市场对欧洲央行激 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may opt for a rate cut in December instead of September, reflecting concerns over economic activity in the second half of the year [1] Economic Activity - The adjustment in Barclays' forecast is attributed to weak economic activity in the latter half of the year, influenced by ongoing trade policy challenges and the earlier-than-expected imports from the U.S. [1] Trade and Inflation - By December, clearer signals regarding trade headwinds are expected, which may alleviate concerns about supply chain disruptions impacting inflation [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Confidence in the 2026 fiscal plan not reigniting inflationary pressures is likely to support a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Barclays anticipates that the terminal deposit rate of the ECB will remain at 1.75% by 2026 [1]

通胀率持平于2%目标，叠加第二季度GDP增长微弱但为正，今年欧洲央行再次降息的门槛已明显提 高，巴克莱等机构已不再预计欧洲央行将在9月降息。 未来几个季度通胀仍可能高于欧洲央行的预期，这意味着市场需警惕欧洲央行降息预期的重新定价。德 国商业银行表示，欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性降低。7月核心年通胀率维持在2.3%，但由于环比涨幅 较高，欧元区物价下降幅度可能不如此前预期，预计整体通胀率将在年底前维持在2%左右。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月1日电（王姝睿）欧元区7月通胀率稳定在欧洲央行2%的目标水平。这证实了该央行对 物价的温和看法，并支持了其在大幅降息后维持利率不变的立场。 数据显示，欧元区7月通胀率维持在2.0%，高于预期的1.9%。核心通胀率也稳定在2.3%。尽管服务业价 格增速小幅放缓，但被商品通胀回升所抵消。 欧洲央行行长拉加德此前表示，该央行在通胀方面处于"有利位置"，不会对偏离目标的"小幅波动"做出 反应。 荷兰国际集团（ING）经济学家Carsten Brzeski表示，最新的贸易发展和欧元走弱，使得欧洲央行进一 步降息以支持增长的压力减小。尽管关税会拖累增长并降低物价压力，但市场已 ...

货币市场加大了对欧洲央行降息的押注，预计到2026年3月有90%的可能性降息25个基点。 ...

Group 1 - Traders are positioning through options strategies in anticipation of a European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut, which could yield significant returns if the policy is implemented in the coming months [1] - Large bets have been placed this week related to options linked to the three-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor), indicating strong market interest in potential rate changes [1] - If the ECB lowers the benchmark rate from the current 2% to 1.5% by December and maintains it until March next year, related investments could generate over €25 million (approximately $28.5 million) in profit, with a cost of only about €2 million [1] Group 2 - The ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that after a cumulative 200 basis points cut to the deposit rate within a year, policymakers may enter an observation period, yet the market still sees a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut by year-end [1] - The monetary market's expectations for the interest rate path have shown volatility, with a previous prediction of a 1.5% rate by year-end shifting due to recent inflation indicators in parts of France and Germany [4] - A Bloomberg survey revealed that 20% of economists expect the benchmark rate to drop to 1.5% by the end of 2025, while others are split between maintaining the rate at 2% or reducing it by 25 basis points to 1.75%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in rate expectations [4]

金十数据7月31日讯，潘森宏观的Melanie Debono表示，尽管欧元区劳动力市场依然强劲，但不太可能 阻止欧洲央行在9月会议上降息。周四公布的数据显示，二季度末，欧元区失业人数减少了6万多人，使 失业率保持在历史最低水平的6.2%。Debono指出，这可能会维持较强的工资增长，从而加剧核心通胀 压力。不过，她补充称，工资增长幅度不会强到令欧洲央行官员感到难以接受，因此不太可能成为阻碍 9月降息的因素。 潘森宏观：欧元区强劲的就业市场不会阻碍9月降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the US and EU increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not lower interest rates further, potentially delaying any rate cuts until December or maintaining rates throughout 2025 [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The US-EU trade agreement may slightly raise the forecasts for growth and inflation in the Eurozone according to Abn Amro [1] - Prior to the trade agreement, Abn Amro had predicted that the ECB would ultimately lower rates in December [1] Group 2: ECB Rate Decisions - The ECB may wait until December to cut rates or could keep rates unchanged for the entirety of 2025 [1] - The balance of risks now leans towards the possibility that a rate cut may not occur at all [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again unless there is a significant economic turnaround, as stated by Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's governing council [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates last week as expected, providing a slightly optimistic assessment of the Eurozone economy, which led investors to reduce bets on further easing [1] - Kazimir indicated that he does not foresee any major situations that would compel immediate action in September, unless there are signs of a significant labor market collapse [1] Group 2 - A recent trade agreement between the EU and the US is seen as a positive signal, reducing uncertainty for businesses, but its impact on inflation remains unclear [1] - Kazimir expressed that current inflation rates are unlikely to fall below the ECB's 2% target as they did in the decade before the pandemic [1] - Predictions suggest that inflation will drop below 2% next year and will not recover until 2027, raising concerns among some central bank governors about the potential for persistently weak price growth [2] - Kazimir does not see a lasting threat of inflation remaining below the target, suggesting that any such situation in the coming year should be temporary [2]