欧洲央行降息

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30倍暴利、成功率不足1%!交易员“逆市”豪赌欧央行将大幅降息
智通财经网· 2025-10-08 11:19
智通财经APP获悉,交易员们正押注于期权交易,期望一旦欧洲央行在明年年中前能出乎市场意料地多 次下调利率,就能获得丰厚的利润。本周的押注目标是预计欧洲央行政策制定者在 6 月前实现多达三次 25 个基点的降息,这一降幅远高于货币市场所暗示的 10 个基点的降幅。盈利最多的结果将是收益近 900万欧元(约合 1050 万美元),是初始投入的 30 多倍,但成功的可能性却不到 1%。 就在这些押注不断增加的同时,货币市场也逐渐降低了进一步放宽货币政策的可能性。欧洲央行政策制 定者在 6 月份将存款利率降至 2%后,已表明紧缩周期即将结束。 此前的各类期权交易在最近几周的预期是,到明年年中将利率下调幅度控制在 25个基点或更小。加上 新的押注,目前因降息而获益、6月份到期的未平仓合约合约总量已达到 135 万份——是五周前水平的 两倍多。其中,9 月到期的合约数量增长幅度最大,增加了 50%。 据经济学家们所做预测,欧洲央行的存款利率在 2027 年之前都将维持在 2%的水平。但这一预测并未 阻止一些分析师做出进一步降息的预测。摩根士丹利预计,由于其对经济增长放缓和工资增长放缓的预 期,该基准利率将在 3 月份降至 ...
中银研究:四季度我国金融数据有望回暖 美联储年内还将降息2次
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 09:57
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that major financial data in China is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, supported by ongoing policy efforts, with the RMB exchange rate likely to show a stable upward trend [1][2] - The total financing in China is projected to expand steadily, with high-speed growth in key areas and government bond financing remaining at a high level [2] - Interest rates are expected to continue to decline moderately, providing a favorable monetary environment for real economy financing [2] Group 2 - The global economic growth outlook is mixed, with increasing uncertainties on the demand side and relative stability on the supply side [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again has increased, with expectations of two rate cuts in the fourth quarter [3] - Geopolitical factors will continue to significantly influence global capital flows, and the dollar index is expected to remain weak [3]
凯投宏观:欧洲央行明年可能再次降息
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 06:47
Core Viewpoint - The decline in inflation in the Eurozone is likely to lead to the European Central Bank (ECB) considering interest rate cuts next year [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ECB has maintained its key interest rates unchanged in recent policy meetings, indicating resilience in the Eurozone economy and effective control over inflation [1] - Wage growth is slowing down, and commodity prices are decreasing, which may result in the core inflation rate falling below 2% next year [1] - Overall inflation is expected to decline further as energy prices soften [1] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The potential decrease in inflation could prompt ECB policymakers to lower borrowing costs [1]
欧洲央行降息周期将止 长端收益率或承压
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-22 05:11
Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1732 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.12% from the previous closing price of 1.1746 [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Simon Dangoor predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will conduct its last rate cut of the current cycle in December, given the multiple uncertainties facing the economy [1] - Dangoor emphasizes that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut rates further and prefers to wait for clearer signals regarding global trade conditions and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The key support levels for the overall bullish trend are identified at 1.1700 and approximately 1.1710, with potential downside targets at 1.1660 [2] - On the upside, the intraday high is noted at 1.1790, with resistance levels at 1.1850 and 1.1878 [2]
欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯:目前没有理由降息
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 07:40
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not see a need to lower interest rates at this time, despite a weak economic growth and an inflation rate around 2% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rates - ECB Governing Council member Kazaks stated that there is currently no justification for lowering interest rates, as the inflation rate is approximately 2% and economic growth is weak [1] Economic Outlook - The ECB maintained borrowing costs unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, with most policymakers agreeing that further rate cuts are unnecessary, while keeping the option to act if needed [1] - Kazaks emphasized the high uncertainty in the global economic landscape, particularly due to geopolitical factors, and noted that the central bank is closely monitoring economic developments [1] Potential Actions - Kazaks indicated that if economic conditions worsen further or if inflation significantly drops below the 2% target, the ECB may consider implementing rate cuts [1]
每日机构分析:9月10日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 09:31
Group 1 - Deloitte predicts that U.S. retail sales growth during the winter holiday season will hit a new low since the pandemic, with expected growth of 2.9-3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% due to economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade policies [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has a 60% probability of a final 25 basis point rate cut in December, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market and inflation falling significantly below targets due to declining energy prices and a stronger euro [1] - Danske Bank analysts highlight that the U.S. August PPI will be closely watched as it precedes the August CPI release and may provide early clues on the accumulation of tariff-related costs [2] Group 2 - InTouch Capital Markets analysts suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve would require core inflation data to be significantly below expectations, but the likelihood of a large cut remains low due to sticky service prices and the Fed's gradual policy approach [2] - City Index strategists warn that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could potentially harm market confidence more than it would benefit, indicating that the Fed is likely to avoid appearing to yield to political pressure [2] - Leuthold Group strategists argue that the Fed's 2% inflation target should be viewed as a reference point rather than a strict constraint, noting that a slightly higher inflation rate could coexist with stable growth [3]
雷恩称通胀风险偏向下行 欧洲央行降息之路仍未封闭
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-04 04:02
Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) member Rehn refuted market speculation that there will be no further interest rate cuts in the coming months, indicating that current inflation risks are clearly "biased downwards" [1] - Rehn warned against complacency regarding price stability, despite the annual inflation rate meeting the ECB's 2% medium-term target for the past two months [1] - He highlighted several downward risks to be monitored, including falling energy prices, euro appreciation, and controlled service sector inflation [1] Group 2 - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently experiencing a range-bound movement, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742 [2] - A breakthrough above this level could open up further upside potential, targeting 1.1788 and the high of 1.1830 from July 2025 [2] - The initial support level is at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1514, with further support at the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly bottom of 1.1210 [2]
欧元区8月通胀小幅回升,欧央行9月会议降息无望?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-02 12:02
Group 1 - Eurozone's August CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in July, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, remained stable at 2.3% [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during the upcoming meeting on September 11, as indicated by the latest inflation data [1] Group 2 - ECB decision-makers generally support keeping interest rates stable, with the German central bank president describing the current economic state as "some kind of equilibrium" [2] - Some officials, however, suggest that the possibility of future rate cuts remains, citing uncertainties in the economic outlook [3] - The inflation data reveals a mixed performance across Eurozone countries, with France, Italy, and Spain showing lower-than-expected inflation, while Germany's inflation was slightly above expectations [3]
潘森宏观:欧央行9月或无视粘性通胀再次降息
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-01 04:00
Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, currently trading around 1.17, with a slight increase of 0.23% from the previous close [1] Economic Indicators - Eurozone inflation remains unchanged at an annual rate of 2.0% for July, with core inflation also stable [1] - Food inflation is accelerating, and the base effect of oil prices may lead to a rebound in Eurozone inflation in the remaining months of the year [1] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider another rate cut in September, potentially lowering the rate to 1.75% [1] - A decrease in core inflation in August would further support the ECB's decision to cut rates [1] Market Dynamics - The Euro to USD exchange rate shows some momentum but is still within a consolidation range [1] - Key resistance levels for the Euro include the August high of 1.1742, with further targets at 1.1788 and 1.1830 [1] - A strong upward movement could challenge the September 2021 high of 1.1909, just below the significant psychological level of 1.2000 [1]
潘森宏观:9月可能是欧洲央行最后一次降息机会
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 06:26
Core Viewpoint - September appears to be the last opportunity for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates in the Eurozone, as the key rate was maintained at 2.00% during the last meeting in July, and investors largely expect no rate cuts next month [1] Group 1 - If August's consumer price inflation is lower than expected, the situation regarding interest rates may change [1] - Eurozone CPI data is set to be released next week, which could influence the ECB's decision [1] - Rising energy and commodity prices may lead to further inflation spikes, potentially closing the window for additional easing starting in September [1]