以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 美元加速贬值，市场对中长期投资者可能撤资美国资产的担忧日益增加。如果日本投资者撤退，影响有多大？ 据追风交易台消息，野村Yujiro Goto等分析师在5月9日的报告中详尽分析了日本投资者持有美国股票和债券的结构，以及日本投资者减持美国资产的可能性和影 响。 野村认为， 日本投资者对美债减仓风险显著大于股票，其中保险公司是关键。 研究显示，截至2024年9月，九大日本寿险公司外国证券投资中的美元比例已达历 史新高的72%，远高于历史水平。 这意味着日本保险公司有相当空间从美元资产"撤资"。 而寿险公司持有的美国债券对冲比例较低，这意味着如果它们减持美国债券或提高对冲比例， 将会形成巨大的对美元的抛售压力。 日本投资者持有美国资产结构：高度集中于美债和股票 根据美国财政部国际资本流动(TIC)数据，截至2025年2月底，日本投资者持有约2.7万亿美元(402万亿日元)的美国证券(不含短期证券)。 其中，38%(1.0万亿美元)为美国国债，22%(0.6万亿美元)为其他中长期美国债券，40%(1.1万亿美元)为美国股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the US dollar is raising concerns among market participants about potential withdrawals of US assets by long-term investors, particularly Japanese investors [1] Group 1: Japanese Investors' Holdings in US Assets - As of February 2025, Japanese investors hold approximately $2.7 trillion (402 trillion yen) in US securities, with 38% ($1.0 trillion) in US Treasury bonds, 22% ($0.6 trillion) in other long-term US bonds, and 40% ($1.1 trillion) in US stocks [3] - Japanese insurance companies have a historically high dollar asset proportion of 72% in their foreign securities investments, indicating significant potential for "de-dollarization" [2][9] Group 2: Risks of Asset Reduction - The risk of Japanese investors reducing their holdings in US bonds is significantly higher than in stocks, with insurance companies being a key factor [2][9] - Pension funds are generally passive investors, making large-scale sell-offs of US stocks unlikely, while retail investors may slow their purchases but rarely engage in sustained selling [9] Group 3: Potential Market Impact - If Japanese insurance companies were to sell 10% of their US bonds or increase their hedging ratio by 10 percentage points, it could create a buying pressure of over 5 trillion yen for the yen [11] - The potential for Japanese authorities to consider selling US bonds poses a "tail risk" that could lead to significant instability in the US bond market and further depreciation of the US dollar [11]