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夏春解读特朗普的经济悖论:美国再次伟大?美元资产长牛?只能二选一!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 08:56
Group 1 - The article discusses the irreconcilable conflict between Trump's policies aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing and reducing trade deficits, and the long-term bullish outlook for U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar that Wall Street anticipates [3][41] - Trump's imposition of high tariffs has led to significant declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, marking the worst performance for these assets compared to previous presidents [4][9] - Despite the increasing trade deficit, U.S. households and businesses have seen their wealth rise, indicating that the U.S. has been a major beneficiary of global trade [6][18] Group 2 - The article highlights that Trump's second term has already seen five instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, a stark contrast to previous administrations [7][9] - The long-term decline of U.S. bonds is attributed to rising government debt and the resurgence of inflation, exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies [11][12] - The article emphasizes that Trump's goal of reducing the trade deficit through tariffs could backfire, as it may lead to less foreign investment in U.S. assets, which has historically supported the stock and bond markets [18][34] Group 3 - The article points out that the current economic model, which has benefited Wall Street, relies on a global division of labor that has allowed for low-cost imports, thus keeping inflation in check and increasing purchasing power [24][26] - It argues that if Trump succeeds in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., it could lead to higher production costs and negatively impact corporate profits, resulting in a return to the lackluster market performance seen before 1980 [26][41] - The article also discusses the implications of high tariffs on domestic industries, using the example of the firefighting equipment market, where prices have soared due to reduced competition [28][30] Group 4 - The article concludes that Trump's approach to trade and tariffs is fundamentally at odds with the interests of Wall Street, which thrives on the current economic structure that promotes globalization and low-cost imports [41] - It suggests that a shift towards free trade and cooperation with global partners, along with internal reforms to support manufacturing workers, would be more beneficial for the U.S. economy [41]