高关税政策

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综述丨美国各界人士表示美国高关税“捡了芝麻丢了西瓜”
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-08 12:42
美国总统特朗普当天也在社交媒体发帖,称"数十亿美元的资金将开始流入美国""关税正以我们想 象不到的水平流入美国"。 然而,一些投资分析师和智库看到的美国经济图景,与美国政府的描述完全不同。 投资机构动态经济战略公司首席执行官约翰·席尔瓦表示,今年4月初,美国颁布"对等关税"以来, 企业招聘停滞,通胀压力上升,显示经济生产力正在下降,企业无法维持此前支付给雇员的实际工资水 平。"这都是美国政府行动产生的后果。" 长期跟踪美国关税政策影响的耶鲁大学预算实验室7日发布最新报告显示,随着美国关税政策进一 步调整,其平均有效关税税率目前已达到18.6%,是1933年以来最高水平。报告说,美国政府今年以来 实施的各类关税措施将导致该国物价水平短期内上涨1.8%,相当于平均每户家庭损失2400美元。 新华社北京8月8日电 综述|美国各界人士表示美国高关税"捡了芝麻丢了西瓜" 新华社记者宿亮 连日来,不少美国智库、媒体和学者指出,美国政府宣称高关税能够给美国带来巨额关税收入,却 无视关税的实际缴纳者是美国进口商和消费者这一事实。越来越多分析显示,高关税给美国经济带来的 伤害远超关税带来的收入,此举实为"捡了芝麻丢了西瓜"。 ...
综述|美国各界人士表示美国高关税“捡了芝麻丢了西瓜”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 12:04
新华社北京8月8日电 综述|美国各界人士表示美国高关税"捡了芝麻丢了西瓜" 新华社记者宿亮 连日来,不少美国智库、媒体和学者指出,美国政府宣称高关税能够给美国带来巨额关税收入,却无视 关税的实际缴纳者是美国进口商和消费者这一事实。越来越多分析显示,高关税给美国经济带来的伤害 远超关税带来的收入,此举实为"捡了芝麻丢了西瓜"。 美国商务部长卢特尼克7日接受记者采访时表示,随着"对等关税"生效,预计美国每月将"入账"至少500 亿美元的关税收入。他说,此前一个月,美国已因新的关税措施获得300亿美元收入。 美国总统特朗普当天也在社交媒体发帖,称"数十亿美元的资金将开始流入美国""关税正以我们想象不 到的水平流入美国"。 越来越多专家担心,美国普通民众不得不承担高关税的严重代价。 美国摩根大通资产管理全球市场战略分析师米拉·潘迪特7日说,高关税带来的成本中有大约60%的比例 将转嫁给消费者。 总部位于华盛顿的税务基金会的高级经济学家亚历克斯·杜兰特在接受加拿大广播公司采访时表示,关 税正在打击依赖进口的众多美国企业。他强调,美国政府很难让民众相信市场物价上涨的原因与关税无 关。"我不认为大多数人会被这种说法愚弄。" ...
夏春解读特朗普的经济悖论:美国再次伟大?美元资产长牛?只能二选一!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 08:56
Group 1 - The article discusses the irreconcilable conflict between Trump's policies aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing and reducing trade deficits, and the long-term bullish outlook for U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar that Wall Street anticipates [3][41] - Trump's imposition of high tariffs has led to significant declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, marking the worst performance for these assets compared to previous presidents [4][9] - Despite the increasing trade deficit, U.S. households and businesses have seen their wealth rise, indicating that the U.S. has been a major beneficiary of global trade [6][18] Group 2 - The article highlights that Trump's second term has already seen five instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, a stark contrast to previous administrations [7][9] - The long-term decline of U.S. bonds is attributed to rising government debt and the resurgence of inflation, exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies [11][12] - The article emphasizes that Trump's goal of reducing the trade deficit through tariffs could backfire, as it may lead to less foreign investment in U.S. assets, which has historically supported the stock and bond markets [18][34] Group 3 - The article points out that the current economic model, which has benefited Wall Street, relies on a global division of labor that has allowed for low-cost imports, thus keeping inflation in check and increasing purchasing power [24][26] - It argues that if Trump succeeds in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., it could lead to higher production costs and negatively impact corporate profits, resulting in a return to the lackluster market performance seen before 1980 [26][41] - The article also discusses the implications of high tariffs on domestic industries, using the example of the firefighting equipment market, where prices have soared due to reduced competition [28][30] Group 4 - The article concludes that Trump's approach to trade and tariffs is fundamentally at odds with the interests of Wall Street, which thrives on the current economic structure that promotes globalization and low-cost imports [41] - It suggests that a shift towards free trade and cooperation with global partners, along with internal reforms to support manufacturing workers, would be more beneficial for the U.S. economy [41]
新日铁首席执行官:美国转变政策实施高关税,将提升我们在美国本土市场业务发展的战略重要性。
news flash· 2025-06-19 01:21
Group 1 - The CEO of Nippon Steel stated that the U.S. policy shift to implement high tariffs will enhance the strategic importance of their business development in the U.S. domestic market [1]
惠誉下调北美企业评级展望至“恶化”,预警高关税或引发通胀与消费萎缩双压
智通财经网· 2025-06-11 23:52
Group 1 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the growth outlook for North American non-financial companies for 2025, changing the rating outlook from "stable" to "negative" [1] - The downgrade is attributed to the potential impact of high tariff policies by the U.S. government, which may trigger a new wave of inflation and weaken consumer purchasing power, creating dual pressure on economic operations [1] - The downgrade affects several consumer-oriented sectors, including retail, alcoholic beverages, food services, global automotive manufacturing, and oil and gas extraction [1] Group 2 - Fitch notes that companies are struggling to maintain operational data through price increase strategies, contrasting with the previous inflation cycle of 2022-2023, where strong employment and fiscal stimulus supported consumer markets [1] - The agency predicts that if consumers cannot absorb price increases from tariffs, companies will be forced to adopt unconventional operational strategies, such as cost-cutting and delaying capital expenditures to maintain cash flow [1] - Despite the downgrade, Fitch maintains its basic judgment that the U.S. economy will not experience a technical recession in 2025-2026, but highlights that regulatory policy uncertainty is eroding economic growth momentum [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry rating differentiation, Fitch maintains a "stable" outlook for software technology services and business services, citing digital transformation demand as a stable support for related companies [2] - The aerospace and defense industry received an upgrade, driven by the recovery of the global civil aviation market leading to increased aircraft orders and sustained defense budget investments from major economies [2]
日美第五轮部长级关税谈判未达成一致
news flash· 2025-06-07 05:29
Core Point - The fifth round of ministerial-level tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States did not reach an agreement, highlighting ongoing trade tensions and unresolved differences between the two countries [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - The discussions have made some progress, but no consensus has been found yet [1] - The negotiations have been ongoing for three consecutive weeks without bridging the gap between the two nations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Japan's government is aiming to reach some level of agreement between the leaders by mid-month, but the feasibility of this goal remains uncertain [1]
日本自民党高层在美智库发言称关税政策影响安保
news flash· 2025-05-01 07:44
Core Viewpoint - The high tariff policies of the Trump administration are creating a sense of distance between the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia, which significantly impacts security cooperation mechanisms [1] Group 1: Tariff Policies and Security - The chairman of the Policy Research Council of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Nobuteru Ishihara, expressed concerns that high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on countries like Japan, South Korea, and India affect security collaboration [1] - Ishihara emphasized the need to explore the implications of Trump's tariffs on the future of international order [1]
经济热点问答丨美国经济萎缩意味着什么?
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-05-01 05:07
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, raising concerns about the impact of high tariff policies on economic growth and consumer confidence [1][3]. Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2025, the worst performance in over two years [1]. - The contraction is attributed to a surge in imports and a reduction in government spending, with imports increasing by 50.9% from January to March 2025 [1][2]. Tariff Impact - High tariffs have led to increased import activity as businesses stockpile goods in anticipation of further tariff hikes, which may suppress future consumer spending [2][3]. - Moody's analysis indicates that tariffs are eroding consumer purchasing power, contributing to a decline in domestic consumption and consumer confidence, with the consumer confidence index hitting its lowest level since the pandemic [3]. Employment Trends - Private sector job creation has significantly slowed, with April's new job numbers falling short of market expectations, indicating a potential downturn in employment opportunities [3][4]. Recession Outlook - Analysts predict a 65% chance of the U.S. economy entering a recession in 2025 due to policy uncertainties and the adverse effects of high tariffs on supply chains and demand [4][5]. - Bloomberg estimates a 50% likelihood of recession within the next year, as high tariffs complicate economic conditions [5].
这位大佬称,特朗普高关税“撑不过三个月”,为什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 00:01
Group 1 - Mahathir criticizes the high tariff policy of the Trump administration, predicting it will not last more than three months due to rising living costs leading to widespread protests among the American populace [1][4] - The U.S. economy's deep reliance on global supply chains is highlighted, with Mahathir noting that the country has "almost no domestic products," leading to a hollowing out of local manufacturing [3][4] - The imposition of high tariffs could result in significant price increases for American consumers, particularly for products like the iPhone, which relies heavily on overseas production [3][4] Group 2 - The anticipated nationwide protests in the U.S. in April 2025 are linked to rising prices, stock market declines, and shrinking retirement funds, reflecting the real impact of the trade war on American citizens [4][6] - Mahathir argues that the Trump administration's tariffs may backfire, creating three major challenges: overcoming cost disadvantages, increasing inflation, and the risk of global supply chain disruptions [4][6] - The U.S. stock market has already seen a significant decline, with a loss of $6.6 trillion in market value due to the tariff policies, indicating the immediate economic repercussions [4][6] Group 3 - Despite widespread protests, Trump maintains a high approval rating among Republican voters, and there is no unified opposition within the party against the tariff policies [6][7] - The slow response of the government to the negative economic impacts of tariffs is noted, with decision-making processes being influenced by public opinion and lobbying from interest groups [6][7] - Mahathir's critique reflects a broader concern about the decline of American hegemony and the potential ineffectiveness of unilateral pressure on China in trade negotiations [6][7] Group 4 - The conflict between globalization and protectionism is underscored, with Mahathir's predictions highlighting the structural contradictions within the U.S. economy [9] - The Trump administration faces a "triple paradox" involving insufficient domestic production, rising inflation pressures, and the political divide between populist movements and elite consensus [9] - The challenge for the Trump administration lies not only in the potential repeal of tariffs but in finding a way to exit the economic conflict without triggering a systemic crisis [9]