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美元稳定币的扩张对非美货币构成怎样的影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 15:50
Core Insights - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. Congress and its subsequent signing by President Trump is expected to accelerate the issuance, payment settlement, and trading of stablecoins, which may significantly impact global monetary policy and exchange markets [2][3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed concerns that the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins could undermine its control over monetary policy, as dollar stablecoins account for approximately 99% of the total stablecoin market, while euro stablecoins remain marginal with a market cap of less than €350 million [2][3] - The potential growth of stablecoin supply is projected to increase from $230 billion in 2025 to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, which could further tilt the balance in favor of the U.S. and raise financing costs in the Eurozone [3][4] Industry Implications - The U.S. financial system, primarily driven by capital markets, contrasts with Europe's bank-dominated system, leading to concerns that the rise of stablecoins may marginalize traditional commercial banks [3][5] - Major U.S. payment organizations like Visa and Mastercard are integrating stablecoins into their global products, while retailers such as Walmart and Amazon are exploring their use, potentially bypassing traditional banking systems [3][5] - The GENIUS Act aims to modernize the U.S. payment and financial systems, reinforce the international status of the dollar, and create new demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby enhancing the dollar's global influence [5][6] Market Dynamics - The efficiency and cost-reduction benefits of stablecoins are expected to strengthen the dollar's international position, creating a cycle of stablecoins, dollars, and U.S. Treasury bonds [6] - The emergence of high-yield stablecoin loans and interest-bearing stablecoin deposits poses challenges to traditional currencies and banking systems [3][4] - The recent enactment of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, which are pegged to the U.S. dollar, highlights the need for localized experiments in stablecoin issuance and trading in financial hubs like Shanghai [6]