文/ 江苏省金科数字与科技金融研究院院长 邹传伟 本文分析了美元稳定币在境外进口商支付、中国出口商收款、提升交易安 全 性 与 时 效 性 B2B 大 宗 商 品 贸 易 等 四 类 主 要 场 景 中 的 应 用 模 式 与 运 作 机 制。同时，重点探讨了稳定币在跨境流通过程中带来的反洗钱监管挑战， 在此基础上，从防范稳定币相关洗钱风险提出政策建议，以提升我国在国 际支付体系中的自主可控能力。 美元稳定币在我国外贸跨境结算中的应用场景 目前，美元稳定币在中国对外贸易结算中的应用场景主要分为以下四类： 境外进口商以美元稳定币支付的结算场景 中国出口商收取美元稳定币的结算场景 此类场景主要针对我国受国外技术封锁或贸易限制的出口行业，相关企业无法通过境外商业银行正常收取美元货款，美元稳定币成为突破支付壁垒的关键 工具。一是稳定币支付机构（不需要同时是稳定币发行机构）作为中间载体，代中国出口商接收境外交易对手支付的美元稳定币，在该环节中，稳定币支 付机构承担客户身份识别责任，确保交易主体身份真实、贸易背景合规。二是稳定币支付机构将美元稳定币转入香港持牌虚拟资产交易所，将美元稳定币 兑换为美元或港元。从香港持牌虚拟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system faces significant structural flaws, including the broad "Triffin Dilemma," increasing spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies, and the trend of dollar "weaponization," which severely limits its stability and sustainability [2][8]. Group 1: Structural Flaws in the International Monetary System - The broad "Triffin Dilemma" remains unresolved, as the U.S. must continuously provide dollar liquidity to meet international demand, which undermines the dollar's credit foundation [9]. - The spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies have intensified, exposing the asymmetry of the current monetary system, where U.S. monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact emerging markets and developing countries [10]. - The trend of dollar "weaponization" has increased, with the U.S. using financial sanctions and the SWIFT system for geopolitical purposes, leading to a fragmentation of the international monetary system [11]. Group 2: Impact of Trump 2.0 on the International Monetary System - Trump 2.0 policies challenge the post-war international monetary system through debt tools, a retreat from multilateralism, and a focus on digital currencies, potentially leading to a restructuring of the global financial system [13][15]. - The U.S. is attempting to externalize its debt burden by encouraging trade partners to convert short-term U.S. debt into long-term bonds, which could undermine the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset [17][18]. - The cancellation of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) weakens the global aid network, potentially diminishing the dollar's soft power and its role as a global reserve currency [20]. Group 3: The Rise of the Renminbi and Digital Currencies - The internationalization of the renminbi is progressing rapidly, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, although it is unlikely to replace the dollar's dominance in the short term [5]. - The Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies may reshape the global monetary system, with private cryptocurrencies potentially gaining institutional status and challenging traditional fiat currencies [6][25]. - The emergence of a "new dollar cycle" through stablecoins is seen as a way to supplement traditional financial markets with digital dollar liquidity, enhancing the dollar's position in the digital economy [25][28]. Group 4: Future Directions of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is entering a transformation phase, potentially evolving into a multi-polar, regionalized, and digitized structure, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi as key currencies [30][31]. - The regionalization of the monetary system is becoming more pronounced, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi emerging as three major currency poles, reflecting structural adjustments in global supply chains [33]. - Digitalization is reshaping the competitive logic of the international monetary system, with the U.S. aiming to establish a digital dollar hegemony through stablecoins and cryptocurrency regulations [34].

Group 1: Achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan - China's economy grew by approximately 40 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching a total economic volume of 140 trillion RMB, which is equivalent to the total volume of several medium-sized economies [1][2] - Per capita GDP increased from 10,504 USD in 2020 to 13,445 USD in 2024, indicating resilience and vitality in economic development [2][4] - The World Bank adjusted its high-income standard, lowering the threshold from 14,005 USD to 13,935 USD, which brings China closer to crossing the high-income threshold by just 275 USD [2][4] Group 2: Economic Development Requirements for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan must achieve an average annual growth rate of 4.5% to 5% and gradually raise inflation to around 2% to support nominal economic growth [8][14] - By 2035, China's GDP needs to exceed 200 trillion RMB and per capita GDP should surpass 20,000 USD, building on the 40 trillion RMB growth achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8][14] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Responses - Current challenges include low inflation and employment pressures, which could hinder nominal GDP growth if not addressed [13][14] - The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized to ensure effective resource allocation and improve the business environment [13][14] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Environment - China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly 1 trillion USD in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 1.2 trillion USD in 2025, reflecting strong external competitiveness [15] - The global trade environment is expected to face significant challenges by 2026, necessitating proactive measures to adapt to changing conditions [15][16] Group 5: Digital Currency and Financial Infrastructure - The rise of digital currencies and financial infrastructure is reshaping global financial dynamics, with China leading in central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives [18][19] - The U.S. is focusing on stablecoins to maintain dollar dominance, while other countries are exploring their own digital currency strategies [19][21] - The integration of blockchain technology into traditional payment systems, such as SWIFT, is underway, indicating a shift towards a more digitalized financial landscape [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of U.S. national debt is supported by the dominance of the U.S. dollar, which remains strong as long as dollar credit is intact, leading to a significant increase in national debt levels, surpassing $38 trillion for the first time in history [1][11]. Group 1: U.S. National Debt Expansion - The U.S. national debt has grown at an unprecedented rate, accumulating at approximately $69,713.82 per second over the past year, marking the fastest increase outside of the COVID-19 pandemic period [1]. - As of October, the U.S. national debt reached over $38 trillion, following a previous milestone of $37 trillion in August [1]. - The U.S. government currently holds over 40% of the total global sovereign debt, surpassing the combined economic sizes of China, Japan, Germany, and the UK [5]. Group 2: Historical Context of Dollar Dominance - The Bretton Woods system established the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant currency post-World War II, replacing the British pound and leading to the creation of a global dollar system [2][3]. - The dollar's value was initially tied to gold, but significant military expenditures during the Korean and Vietnam Wars led to its devaluation and the eventual decoupling from gold [2][3]. - The establishment of the "petrodollar" system in the 1970s, where oil transactions were conducted in dollars, further solidified the dollar's global dominance [3]. Group 3: Mechanisms Supporting Debt Expansion - The Federal Reserve's control over dollar issuance and its ability to conduct quantitative easing (QE) have been crucial in supporting the U.S. national debt market, ensuring liquidity and preventing defaults [6][8]. - The Fed's purchasing of government bonds during economic downturns allows it to maintain a stable market for U.S. debt, preventing issues such as auction failures or price drops [6]. - The digitalization of the dollar through stablecoins has opened new channels for dollar issuance, further reinforcing the demand for U.S. debt as these stablecoins are often backed by U.S. Treasury securities [7]. Group 4: Global Demand for U.S. Debt - The U.S. dollar accounts for 56.3% of global foreign exchange reserves, and its dominance in international trade and finance makes U.S. debt a preferred asset for many countries [8][9]. - Countries with trade surpluses, particularly in East Asia and oil-exporting nations, are significant holders of U.S. debt, using it as a tool for balancing their foreign exchange markets [9]. - The U.S. financial market's sophistication allows for effective external financing, with national debt serving as a mechanism to recycle dollars back into the economy [9]. Group 5: Credit and Value of the Dollar - The stability of the dollar's value and its creditworthiness are key factors in its continued acceptance as a global reserve currency, with the Fed's monetary policies ensuring a controlled supply of dollars [11][12]. - The relationship between the credit of the dollar and U.S. debt is positive; as long as the dollar maintains its credit, the expansion of U.S. debt will continue smoothly [11][12]. - The absence of defaults or payment delays on U.S. debt reinforces its credibility, ensuring ongoing demand from both domestic and international investors [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current global economic turmoil, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by the US economy and its implications for Europe and China [1][13] - The US economy is heavily reliant on an AI bubble for growth, with 40% of its growth attributed to this factor, while the remaining 60% is distributed among businesses and citizens, resulting in a meager per capita income increase [8][10] - The article highlights the rising commercial real estate loan default rate in the US, which has reached 11.8%, surpassing levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, indicating significant distress among businesses [8][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the increasing acceptance of the Chinese yuan in international trade, particularly in energy transactions with Russia and Middle Eastern countries, as well as in dealings with resource-rich nations in South America and Africa [3][5] - It points out that as the yuan gains international traction, it could lead to cheaper imports and more favorable exchange rates for Chinese citizens, enhancing the overall economic stability [5][21] - The US is attempting to shift the economic burden onto Europe, particularly Germany, by increasing tariffs on German automobiles and imposing financial restrictions, which could undermine Europe's economic sovereignty [13][17] Group 3 - The article suggests that the US banking sector is tightening credit in response to economic pressures, which may exacerbate the financial struggles of both businesses and consumers, leading to a potential wave of defaults [12][19] - It discusses the strategic moves by the US to compel European companies to adopt US dollar stablecoins for transactions, effectively undermining European monetary sovereignty [17][19] - The article concludes with recommendations for individuals to maintain financial stability by holding cash and investing in safer assets, while also encouraging awareness of opportunities related to the internationalization of the yuan [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged nearly 3% recently, driven by weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by year-end [1][3][5] Economic Indicators - U.S. private sector job cuts exceeded 150,000 in October, marking the highest level for this period in over 20 years, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index dropped significantly to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, below market expectations [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve stand at 64%, with a 77% probability for January [3][4] Government Actions - The U.S. Senate has advanced a funding measure to reopen the government, which could enhance the clarity of economic data related to employment and inflation [4] - The potential end of the government shutdown is expected to shift market focus back to deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects, historically supporting gold investments [4] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have seen a decline of approximately 6% since reaching a record high of $4,380 per ounce in mid-October, yet remain up over 56% year-to-date [5] - Analysts predict gold prices could range between $4,200 and $4,300 per ounce by year-end, with further increases expected in the first quarter of next year [5] Gold Token Developments - The rise of gold tokens, such as Tether Gold (XAUT), has been noted, with XAUT's market cap increasing from $1.44 billion to nearly $2.1 billion in October, reflecting a 60% surge [6] - Gold tokens currently represent about 1% of the stablecoin market, with a total market cap of approximately $3 billion compared to $300 billion for dollar-backed stablecoins [6][7] Investment Risks - Concerns have been raised regarding the risks associated with gold tokens, including counterparty risks and the reliability of redeeming physical gold [7][8] - Recent reports indicate that even stablecoins pegged to the dollar can break their peg during extreme market conditions, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the gold token market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, driven by weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with predictions that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year [7][10]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices rose nearly 3% recently, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, marking a two-week high due to weak U.S. employment data that bolstered demand for non-yielding assets [7]. - The Challenger report indicated that over 150,000 job cuts occurred in October, the highest for this period in over 20 years, signaling a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [7]. - The consumer confidence index for November dropped significantly to 50.3, below market expectations, indicating economic concerns [7]. - Market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are at 64%, with a 77% chance for January [7]. Group 2: Economic and Political Influences - The U.S. Senate is advancing a measure to reopen the government, which could lead to the release of more economic data and further enhance expectations for a December rate cut [8][9]. - Concerns over the deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook are expected to shift market focus back to gold and other precious metals [9]. - Since peaking at $4,380 per ounce in mid-October, gold has declined about 6%, but remains up over 56% for the year [9]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Analysts predict gold prices could reach between $4,200 and $4,300 per ounce by year-end, with further increases to $5,000 in the first quarter of next year [9][10]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices could rise to $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases, particularly in emerging markets [10]. Group 4: Gold Token Market - The rise in gold prices has led to an increase in gold tokens, which are backed by physical gold and aim to track gold prices closely [11]. - Tether's gold token, Tether Gold (XAUT), saw its market value increase by 60% in October, reaching nearly $2.1 billion [11]. - Gold tokens currently represent about 1% of the stablecoin market, with a total market value of approximately $3 billion compared to $300 billion for dollar-backed stablecoins [11]. Group 5: Risks of Gold Tokens - There are concerns regarding the risks associated with gold tokens, including issues related to delivery, long-term reliability, and the ability to redeem physical gold [13]. - Critics argue that while gold tokens may offer advantages, they still carry counterparty risks, unlike Bitcoin, which eliminates such risks [13]. - Recent reports indicate that even stablecoins pegged to the dollar can break their peg during extreme market stress, raising questions about the reliability of gold tokens [13].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year and $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, driven by economic uncertainties and central bank purchases [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged nearly 3% recently, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, due to weak U.S. economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][4]. - The Challenger report indicated over 150,000 job cuts in October, the highest for this period in over 20 years, signaling a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [3]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve are at 64%, with a 77% probability for January [3]. Group 2: Government Impact - The U.S. Senate is advancing a funding bill to reopen the government, which could enhance data transparency and further elevate rate cut expectations [4]. - The potential end of the government shutdown may shift investor focus back to deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects, historically supporting gold investments [4]. Group 3: Gold Tokenization - The rise of gold tokens, such as Tether Gold (XAUT), has been noted, with XAUT's market cap increasing from $1.44 billion to nearly $2.1 billion, reflecting a 60% surge [6]. - Gold tokens currently represent about 1% of the stablecoin market, with a total market cap of approximately $3 billion compared to $300 billion for dollar-backed stablecoins [6][7]. - Concerns about the risks associated with gold tokens have been raised, including issues related to delivery, long-term reliability, and the ability to redeem physical gold [7].

Core Viewpoint - The aspiration for a single global currency based solely on the Renminbi (RMB) is seen as both a positive dream and a misguided notion, reflecting a one-polar order mentality that could lead to extreme outcomes [2] Group 1: Digital Currency and Sovereignty - The idea that digital RMB could replace the US dollar is considered a fundamental error, as the transition would not occur through digital RMB [3] - Digital RMB is tied to the RMB, which is a sovereign currency, while US dollar stablecoins are linked to the dollar but are not sovereign currencies [5] - The assertion that government-backed digital RMB has higher international credit than privately issued dollar stablecoins is challenged, as both currencies rely on government credit [6] Group 2: Stability and Future Trends - Dollar stablecoins serve as a digital tool for cross-border payments, maintaining a 100% asset reserve as mandated by the Federal Reserve, thus avoiding liquidity risks [7] - The future trend favors decentralization, with US dollar stablecoins currently dominating the cross-border payment market at 99% [8] - For RMB to effectively replace the dollar, it would require three key pillars: free convertibility, decentralization, and 100% gold reserves [10] Group 3: Currency Exchange Rate Insights - Predictions regarding the RMB exchange rate, such as whether it will break 7 against the dollar, are uncertain, with two underlying trends noted: China does not emphasize RMB appreciation due to export pressures, and the long-term trend has been depreciation since 1978 [11]

Core Insights - The current international monetary system is facing a "lack of anchor" dilemma, with traditional dollar hegemony exposed due to decoupling from Chinese production, leading to a shift towards technology as a new anchor [1][5][7] - The U.S. tech sector has become a focal point for capital inflow, and any issues within this sector could trigger systemic risks across the U.S. financial ecosystem and potentially lead to global repercussions [2][10] - The relationship between gold and silver indicates that rising gold prices often correlate with economic recession and deflationary conditions, suggesting a complex interplay between monetary factors and asset prices [3][4] Monetary System and Anchors - The concept of "anchor" in the monetary system is crucial for maintaining price stability, and its absence can lead to significant risks for assets like Bitcoin and RWA, exacerbating the Triffin dilemma [4][6] - The historical context of the 2000-2008 "dual low" prosperity period illustrates how global value chains absorbed dollar liquidity, temporarily avoiding the Triffin dilemma, which is now challenged by the decoupling from Chinese production [5][7] Risks and Innovations - The emergence of stablecoins and their innovative combinations aims to address the Triffin dilemma, but they also introduce new risks such as decoupling and bank run scenarios, particularly evident during downturns in the tech sector [11][12] - The financial ecosystem's reliance on technology as a new monetary anchor raises concerns about potential bubbles and the stability of the entire U.S. financial system if the tech sector experiences significant declines [10][11] Globalization and Economic Dynamics - The decoupling between the U.S. and China disrupts the previous global resource allocation mechanisms that supported dollar liquidity, leading to a shift towards virtual assets and a decline in real investment [7][9] - The U.S. has increasingly focused on innovation and financial services, sidelining manufacturing, which has implications for the middle class and overall economic stability [8][9]