导语： 日前，中国人民银行副行长陆磊发表题为《守正创新，稳步发展数字人民币》的文章（下称"陆文"），披露人民银行将出台《关于 进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》（下称《行动方案》），新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体 系、运行机制和生态体系将于2026年1月1日正式启动实施。这是贯彻落实"加快建设金融强国""稳步发展数字人民币"战略部署，做好金 融"五篇大文章"的重大举措，意味着数字人民币将由数字现金的1.0时代迈入数字存款货币的2.0时代。 1 中国是数字货币探索的先行者 2025年国际金融领域的大事件之一是，美国通过了三项关键的数字货币法案：《指导与建立美元稳定币国家创新法案》（下称 《GENIUS法案》，又称《天才法案》）、《2025数字资产市场清晰法案》（即《CLARITY法案》）和《反央行数字货币监控国 家法案》。这标志着私人发行美元数字货币（即美元稳定币）将逐步被监管"收编"。一时间，美国将用美元稳定币给美元霸权续命 的说法甚嚣尘上。国内不少专家学者也纷纷呼吁中国要奋起直追。彼时，似乎不讲稳定币，专家就是落伍；不搞稳定币，国家就要 掉队。 当时笔者一再澄清，中国早就开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The digital renminbi is transitioning from the 1.0 era of digital cash to the 2.0 era of digital deposit currency, with a new management and service framework set to be implemented by January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1: Digital Currency Development - China is a pioneer in digital currency exploration, having initiated theoretical research and closed testing of the digital renminbi in 2014, with pilot programs starting in 2019 [3] - The digital renminbi ecosystem has been preliminarily established, following a path that relies on central bank leadership and integration with commercial financial institutions [3] - The digital renminbi 2.0 will be a modern digital payment and circulation method, issued and circulated within the financial system, featuring functions such as value measurement, value storage, and cross-border payment [3][4] Group 2: Operational Framework - The transition to digital renminbi 2.0 retains the successful core elements of the previous phase, particularly the dual-layer operational structure that separates management and operation [4] - The People's Bank of China will establish a digital renminbi management committee to oversee relevant business lines and ensure comprehensive functional regulation [5] - The operational management centers for digital renminbi will be located in Beijing and Shanghai, focusing on system security and cross-border business operations [5] Group 3: Technological Integration - Digital renminbi 2.0 will combine account-based management with blockchain efficiency, utilizing a hybrid architecture that incorporates both account and blockchain characteristics [6] - The digital renminbi will leverage smart contracts and digital technologies to enhance payment services, moving from electronic to digital payment [8][10] - Blockchain technology will be applied not only in cross-border payments but also in the digitalization of real-world assets, with platforms established for various financial services [11] Group 4: Changes in Currency Structure - The digital renminbi will shift from being a central bank liability to a digital deposit currency, allowing banks to manage digital renminbi wallet balances as part of their asset-liability operations [8] - Digital renminbi wallet balances will earn interest and be included in the banks' balance sheets, enhancing the stability of commercial banks' liabilities [8][9] - The digital renminbi will maintain its equivalence to fiat currency, ensuring interoperability and convenience for users [9]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：美港股观察社） 高估值溢价或短期压制市场情绪 作者：JR Research 编译：美港股观察社 近期成长股轮动未阻其收益增长 若此前市场趋势尚不明确，如今则愈发清晰。成长股正经历一场酝酿数月的市场估值重估，市场泡沫逐 步出清，理性回归之下，那些曾被忽视或冷落的股票开始迎来提振。不过，金融板块依旧热度不减，本 周再创历史新高；与此同时，科技板块虽出现回调，但这只是长期牛市中的常规调整，远未到崩盘的地 步。 那么，对于SOFI这类兼具成长属性的金融股而言，这一市场格局意味着什么？首先必须明确的是，尽 管该股自2025年8-9月以来便始终未能突破31美元的关键阻力位，但我们也无需对此过度悲观。下周即 将迎来圣诞节假期，相比10月份，当前市场信号更为明确：在买家有足够信心推动股价突破新高之前， 还需要更多利好因素作为支撑。 10月，SOFI的看涨逻辑主要聚焦于其向高增长领域多元化扩张的能力，尤其是在金融服务板块的布 局。但市场不会继续大幅推高其成长股估值倍数——毕竟当前金融板块的平均预期市盈率还不到11.7 倍。 尽管如此，SOFI当前的预期市盈率仍高达近50倍。不过，部分多头可能会反驳，这一 ...

对于中国来说，程恩富提出，数字经济时代，应该立足我国的基本国情，加强金融监管，确保金融安 全。 对于货币新形态的发展，他建议，借助区块链技术大力发展央行数字货币。程恩富认为，在技术层面 上，数字人民币吸收了稳定币的便捷性，通过分布式记账、智能合约等技术优化支付效率（如数字人民 币的点对点交易可降低跨境结算成本）；在交易上，数字人民币通过可控匿名、实时监控、可追溯，避 免成为洗钱工具。 数字人民币的优势也在助推人民币国际化。程恩富表示，通过大力发展数字人民币，借助数字人民币点 对点交易，以及分布式记账和智能合约等技术优势，可以大大降低跨境结算成本，提高支付效率，进一 步助推人民币国际化。 程恩富总结称，我国需秉持"加强监管、技术创新、服务实体"理念，以实体为基、以技术为器，凭借科 技进步和产业创新，大力发展数字人民币，走出一条具有中国特色的数字人民币发展道路，为数字时代 的全球货币治理提供中国方案。 "美元稳定币很难从根本上解决美债问题。"12月14日，中国社科院学部委员、世界政治经济学会会长程 恩富在由上海财经大学等联合主办的"科技—产业—金融协调发展论坛"上称。 程恩富表示，随着美国经济实力的衰退，财政长期 ...

" TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融购评论 与此同时，美国财政赤字持续扩大，危机凸显。截至2025年10月21日，美国联邦债务已达38万亿美元，距离2025年8月突破37万亿美元仅间隔两个多月， 创历史最快万亿级增速。2024财年美国联邦债务利息支出已超1万亿美元，占当年GDP的3.6%，成为仅次于社会保障的第二大财政支出。此外，在美国反 复将美元当成金融制裁"武器"后，美元信用危机日益加深，2025年2月以来，美元、美股、美债"三杀现象"多次出现，揭示了美元和美债存在的内在问 题。 美元与美债存在相互支撑关系。美元维持霸权地位，美债就能持续受到各国和地区央行及金融市场的追捧；美债作为核心安全资产促成美元国际循环，是 维系美元霸权体系的关键制度安排。自布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元与石油挂钩，既巩固了美元的国际货币地位，也为美债扩张埋下伏笔。 前瞻美债与美元 文 / 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 当前，国际竞争特别是大国竞争极为激烈。美国作为全球第一大经济体，正竭尽全力维持其全球霸权地位，特别是维护美元的世界主要储备货币地位和美 国资本市场的特殊影响力。与此同时，美国经济结构中的一些问题逐渐 ...

SSA同时警示"结算层匿名性"风险。其指出，如果处理美元稳定币交易的节点/路由器长期保持匿名且监 管不足，即便发行环节加强合规，GENIUS框架仍可能面临金融完整性风险。为此，SSA提出一种新的 合规思路——"链上节点KYC"。 该组织建议建立"链上节点KYC（Know Your Customer）"与联邦级"节点登记系统（Node Registry）"： 要求参与美元稳定币验证、排序、结算或跨链路由的节点运营方必须是可识别的合规实体，其法律身份 需与链上公钥进行加密绑定并登记在册，以便监管实现穿透式监督，并在必要时快速处置。 市场人士认为，SSA此番将焦点扩展到"结算层节点识别"，说明全球稳定币监管的争议正从"谁有资格 发币"进一步延伸到"谁在运行与控制稳定币的底层结算轨道"。 在中国，人民银行11月28日召开多部门协调机制会议并于11月29日发布信息指出，虚拟货币相关业务活 动属于非法金融活动，并明确稳定币是虚拟货币的一种形式，目前难以有效满足客户身份识别、反洗钱 等要求，存在被用于洗钱、集资诈骗及违规跨境资金转移的风险。 简而言之：即便在推动稳定币立法的美国，行业也在要求对USDT等离岸稳定币及"链上结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that dollar-backed stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC with a total market capitalization of $260 billion, may accelerate currency substitution in countries with weak monetary systems, undermining central banks' effective control over capital flows [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - In high inflation and low trust economies, households and individuals tend to prefer stablecoins over volatile local currencies, increasing risks [1] - The presence of stablecoins in these economies could lead to a greater reliance on them, further destabilizing local currencies [1] Group 2: Systemic Threats - Key systemic threats include regulatory arbitrage, risk of bank runs, and illicit fund flows [1] - The IMF emphasizes that stablecoins are likely to persist in the financial landscape, necessitating a robust and coordinated international regulatory framework [1] Group 3: Financial Inclusion - The IMF calls for the establishment of strong regulations to manage risks while leveraging stablecoins to enhance financial inclusion [1]

文/ 江苏省金科数字与科技金融研究院院长 邹传伟 本文分析了美元稳定币在境外进口商支付、中国出口商收款、提升交易安 全 性 与 时 效 性 B2B 大 宗 商 品 贸 易 等 四 类 主 要 场 景 中 的 应 用 模 式 与 运 作 机 制。同时，重点探讨了稳定币在跨境流通过程中带来的反洗钱监管挑战， 在此基础上，从防范稳定币相关洗钱风险提出政策建议，以提升我国在国 际支付体系中的自主可控能力。 美元稳定币在我国外贸跨境结算中的应用场景 目前，美元稳定币在中国对外贸易结算中的应用场景主要分为以下四类： 境外进口商以美元稳定币支付的结算场景 中国出口商收取美元稳定币的结算场景 此类场景主要针对我国受国外技术封锁或贸易限制的出口行业，相关企业无法通过境外商业银行正常收取美元货款，美元稳定币成为突破支付壁垒的关键 工具。一是稳定币支付机构（不需要同时是稳定币发行机构）作为中间载体，代中国出口商接收境外交易对手支付的美元稳定币，在该环节中，稳定币支 付机构承担客户身份识别责任，确保交易主体身份真实、贸易背景合规。二是稳定币支付机构将美元稳定币转入香港持牌虚拟资产交易所，将美元稳定币 兑换为美元或港元。从香港持牌虚拟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system faces significant structural flaws, including the broad "Triffin Dilemma," increasing spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies, and the trend of dollar "weaponization," which severely limits its stability and sustainability [2][8]. Group 1: Structural Flaws in the International Monetary System - The broad "Triffin Dilemma" remains unresolved, as the U.S. must continuously provide dollar liquidity to meet international demand, which undermines the dollar's credit foundation [9]. - The spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies have intensified, exposing the asymmetry of the current monetary system, where U.S. monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact emerging markets and developing countries [10]. - The trend of dollar "weaponization" has increased, with the U.S. using financial sanctions and the SWIFT system for geopolitical purposes, leading to a fragmentation of the international monetary system [11]. Group 2: Impact of Trump 2.0 on the International Monetary System - Trump 2.0 policies challenge the post-war international monetary system through debt tools, a retreat from multilateralism, and a focus on digital currencies, potentially leading to a restructuring of the global financial system [13][15]. - The U.S. is attempting to externalize its debt burden by encouraging trade partners to convert short-term U.S. debt into long-term bonds, which could undermine the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset [17][18]. - The cancellation of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) weakens the global aid network, potentially diminishing the dollar's soft power and its role as a global reserve currency [20]. Group 3: The Rise of the Renminbi and Digital Currencies - The internationalization of the renminbi is progressing rapidly, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, although it is unlikely to replace the dollar's dominance in the short term [5]. - The Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies may reshape the global monetary system, with private cryptocurrencies potentially gaining institutional status and challenging traditional fiat currencies [6][25]. - The emergence of a "new dollar cycle" through stablecoins is seen as a way to supplement traditional financial markets with digital dollar liquidity, enhancing the dollar's position in the digital economy [25][28]. Group 4: Future Directions of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is entering a transformation phase, potentially evolving into a multi-polar, regionalized, and digitized structure, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi as key currencies [30][31]. - The regionalization of the monetary system is becoming more pronounced, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi emerging as three major currency poles, reflecting structural adjustments in global supply chains [33]. - Digitalization is reshaping the competitive logic of the international monetary system, with the U.S. aiming to establish a digital dollar hegemony through stablecoins and cryptocurrency regulations [34].

Group 1: Achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan - China's economy grew by approximately 40 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching a total economic volume of 140 trillion RMB, which is equivalent to the total volume of several medium-sized economies [1][2] - Per capita GDP increased from 10,504 USD in 2020 to 13,445 USD in 2024, indicating resilience and vitality in economic development [2][4] - The World Bank adjusted its high-income standard, lowering the threshold from 14,005 USD to 13,935 USD, which brings China closer to crossing the high-income threshold by just 275 USD [2][4] Group 2: Economic Development Requirements for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan must achieve an average annual growth rate of 4.5% to 5% and gradually raise inflation to around 2% to support nominal economic growth [8][14] - By 2035, China's GDP needs to exceed 200 trillion RMB and per capita GDP should surpass 20,000 USD, building on the 40 trillion RMB growth achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8][14] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Responses - Current challenges include low inflation and employment pressures, which could hinder nominal GDP growth if not addressed [13][14] - The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized to ensure effective resource allocation and improve the business environment [13][14] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Environment - China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly 1 trillion USD in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 1.2 trillion USD in 2025, reflecting strong external competitiveness [15] - The global trade environment is expected to face significant challenges by 2026, necessitating proactive measures to adapt to changing conditions [15][16] Group 5: Digital Currency and Financial Infrastructure - The rise of digital currencies and financial infrastructure is reshaping global financial dynamics, with China leading in central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives [18][19] - The U.S. is focusing on stablecoins to maintain dollar dominance, while other countries are exploring their own digital currency strategies [19][21] - The integration of blockchain technology into traditional payment systems, such as SWIFT, is underway, indicating a shift towards a more digitalized financial landscape [22][23]