美联储降息之门正缓缓开启。 在最新的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布，美联储更新货币政策运行框架。这一新 框架对货币政策追求的充分就业和价格稳定目标做了新阐述，认为充分就业水平无法直接衡量，且随时 间推移变化，为就业设定固定目标是不适合的；价格稳定对健全稳定的经济至关重要，长期通胀率主要 由货币政策决定，委员会可为通胀设定长期目标。 市场普遍将美联储货币政策新框架概述为，取消了针对低利率环境的特殊表述，回归灵活通胀目标制， 并放弃此前的"补偿性"通胀策略。这向市场传递出一个微妙而明确的信息：正在开启的降息是预防性行 为，不要误解为"下坡冲刺式"的激进降息。 这种不得不设定给委员会的自由裁量空间，本质上是一种主观性评估，很难有真正的确定性、稳定性和 可预期性，自然就无法消除美国行政当局与美联储之间就货币政策的观点分歧。而要重塑美联储独立 性，货币政策框架机制设计就需尽可能地减少美联储对货币政策评估的自由裁量权。 美联储正开启的非典型降息，对全球金融市场的影响，可能也将较过往有所变化，这主要是由于当前全 球经贸体系的重塑和重构雏形已显，美联储降息的传导结构，将沿着两个方向演进，一是美国新构建的 经贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around the implications of stablecoins, particularly in the context of the US dollar's dominance and potential challenges posed by China's response to stablecoin developments [1][4][33]. Group 1: Stablecoin Applications and Implications - Stablecoins are increasingly used in cross-border transactions, especially in regions with strict capital controls and high inflation, such as Southeast Asia, Nigeria, Argentina, and Turkey [5][6][20]. - The issuance of stablecoins could enhance liquidity in capital flows, but it also raises concerns about potential negative impacts on China's economy and currency sovereignty [4][20]. - The current dominant stablecoins are primarily US-based, with 99% of the market share, raising questions about the competitiveness of a potential Chinese stablecoin [8][12]. Group 2: Regulatory Responses and Strategies - China is adopting a proactive approach to stablecoins, including pilot programs in Hong Kong, to explore their benefits in cross-border payments and to mitigate risks from US dollar dominance [4][12][33]. - Other countries, including the UK and EU, are also developing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, reflecting a cautious stance towards their potential impact on financial markets [16][19]. - The UK is exploring a dual regulatory structure for stablecoins, while Japan maintains strict regulations requiring local issuance [17][19]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The potential for systemic risks associated with stablecoins could undermine the credibility of the US dollar, especially if significant market disruptions occur [20][22]. - The internal political dynamics in the US regarding stablecoin regulation may lead to increased uncertainty, affecting global confidence in the dollar [21][32]. - The fragmented regulatory landscape across different jurisdictions could exacerbate risks, as countries implement varying strategies to manage stablecoin impacts [19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the legalization of stablecoins in the U.S. represents a significant shift in monetary policy, potentially allowing for increased liquidity and a new form of currency management that could rival the Federal Reserve [1][2][40]. - The "Genius Act," which has been passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, is essentially a stablecoin bill that legitimizes stablecoins, moving them from a gray market to a regulated financial instrument [3][4]. - The article suggests that the introduction of stablecoins could double or even multiply the purchasing power of the dollar, as one dollar can generate multiple stablecoins, leading to increased liquidity in the market [6][24][28]. Group 2 - The relationship between stablecoins and U.S. Treasury bonds is emphasized, indicating that stablecoins will likely be backed by U.S. debt rather than just the dollar itself, which could change the dynamics of currency issuance [13][14][37]. - The article discusses the potential for stablecoins to act as a "shadow central bank," allowing the U.S. government to issue currency without direct reliance on the Federal Reserve, thus altering the traditional monetary policy landscape [31][39]. - It is projected that the U.S. stablecoin market could grow from $200 billion to $2 trillion in three years, leading to an estimated $4 trillion in liquidity, which could significantly impact asset prices across the board [42][44].

Group 1 - The majority of stablecoin-related stocks experienced declines in the afternoon trading session, with notable drops including Yunfeng Financial down 7.24% to HKD 2.82, Guotai Junan International down 5.43% to HKD 5.4, and OSL Group down 1.83% to HKD 14.49 [1] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation officially came into effect on August 1, requiring any entity issuing fiat-backed stablecoins in Hong Kong to apply for a license from the Financial Management Commissioner [1] - Zheshang Securities highlighted that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizes three core requirements for licensing: strict compliance review, specificity, and sustainability, with the first licenses expected to be issued in early 2026, later than market expectations [1] Group 2 - Currently, the active stablecoins in Hong Kong are primarily USD-backed, such as USDT and USDC, and failure to obtain a license post-transition period will prevent these stablecoins from operating on compliant VATP exchanges in Hong Kong [2] - Citigroup projects the median market size for stablecoins in Hong Kong to be USD 16 billion, with potential fluctuations of USD 8 billion depending on various factors, including monetary expansion and increased external demand for Hong Kong stablecoins [2]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of real assets is crucial for the future development of stablecoins, as the stability of stablecoins fundamentally depends on the quality of the underlying assets [1][3]. Regulatory Framework - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Management Ordinance, effective from August 1, 2025, marks Hong Kong as the first Asian financial center to comprehensively regulate the stablecoin market [2][5]. - The ordinance requires all stablecoin transactions to occur through regulated exchanges, prohibiting direct peer-to-peer transfers between wallets, and mandates strict KYC (Know Your Customer) and KYT (Know Your Transaction) compliance [3][17]. - This regulatory approach, while enhancing compliance, may undermine the decentralized advantages of blockchain technology [3][17]. Market Dynamics - Major Chinese tech companies like JD.com and Ant Group are actively entering the Hong Kong stablecoin market, primarily to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and capitalize on the stablecoin's profit model [16][18]. - The dominance of USDT and USDC in the global market creates challenges for new entrants, as user acceptance is heavily influenced by existing network effects [16][19]. Asset Quality and Stability - The stability of stablecoins is directly linked to the quality of the underlying assets; assets with clear ownership and predictable cash flows, such as fiat currencies or gold, provide greater stability [11][19]. - The potential for tokenizing real-world assets (RWA) hinges on the clarity of ownership and the ability to generate reliable cash flows [11][12]. Global Financial Implications - Stablecoins are reshaping the international monetary system, allowing tech companies to create currency-like assets, which poses significant challenges to traditional financial frameworks [4][30]. - The reliance on the US dollar as the primary backing for most stablecoins is due to the large offshore dollar market, but this dominance may not be permanent [19][20]. Future Considerations - The relationship between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is complex, with potential models suggesting that CBDCs could serve as a foundation for stablecoins issued by tech companies [26][27]. - The balance between innovation and regulation remains a critical issue, as overly stringent regulations may stifle technological advancements in the stablecoin space [23][30].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Management Ordinance" marks a significant regulatory step, making it the first Asian financial center to comprehensively regulate the stablecoin market, amidst growing interest from major tech companies like JD.com and Ant Group in enhancing cross-border payment efficiency [2][3][4] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The new ordinance requires all stablecoin transactions to occur through regulated exchanges, prohibiting direct peer-to-peer transfers between wallets, and mandates strict KYC (Know Your Customer) and KYT (Know Your Transaction) compliance [3][15] - This regulatory approach aims to enhance compliance and transparency but may compromise the decentralized nature of blockchain technology [3][15] - The ordinance is seen as a cautious yet necessary step to prevent risks associated with unregulated stablecoins, such as USDT, and serves as a potential model for mainland China's future stablecoin regulations [3][20][23] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Major tech companies are entering the Hong Kong stablecoin market primarily to improve cross-border payment efficiency and capitalize on the profit potential from stablecoin issuance [14][15] - The success of a stablecoin depends on its ability to create network effects, as user trust in its widespread adoption is crucial [15][16] - The existing dominance of USDT as a "chain-based dollar" poses challenges for new entrants, particularly in terms of user acceptance and market competition [15][16] Group 3: Asset Quality and Stability - The stability of a stablecoin is fundamentally linked to the quality of its underlying assets, with a focus on ensuring that these assets have clear ownership and predictable returns [3][10] - The introduction of real-world assets (RWA) into the stablecoin ecosystem is seen as essential for enhancing financial robustness, provided these assets are of high quality [3][10][18] - The potential for stablecoins backed by other scarce assets, such as gold or carbon credits, is increasing, reflecting a shift in market dynamics and trust in the dollar [18][19] Group 4: Global Financial Implications - Stablecoins are reshaping the international monetary system by enabling tech companies to create currency-like assets, challenging traditional banking structures [4][28] - The emergence of stablecoins as a new form of banking raises questions about regulatory frameworks and the need to redefine risk boundaries in algorithm-driven financial ecosystems [5][28][29] - The regulatory landscape varies globally, with Europe and the U.S. adopting different approaches to stablecoin regulation, which may influence the competitive dynamics of the market [16][21][22]

Group 1: Core Insights - The upcoming implementation of the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation on August 1, 2025, is expected to significantly impact the development of stablecoins and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][4] - The regulation aims to establish a framework that prioritizes monetary sovereignty while promoting internationalization through a phased approach [4][6] - Hong Kong is positioned as a crucial hub for offshore Renminbi transactions, with a current offshore Renminbi fund pool of approximately 1 trillion yuan, accounting for over two-thirds of the global total [11][12] Group 2: Stablecoin Development - The emergence of stablecoins is driven by technological advancements, particularly blockchain and Web3.0, but cannot replace regulatory frameworks [2][3] - The rapid growth of US dollar stablecoins like USDT and USDC has extended the dollar's dominance into the blockchain space, highlighting the need for a regulatory response [3][4] - The Chinese approach to stablecoin regulation emphasizes establishing rules before allowing market entry, contrasting with the US model of "develop first, regulate later" [4][6] Group 3: Application Scenarios - The primary application for Hong Kong stablecoins is expected to be in cross-border trade settlements, leveraging Hong Kong's role as a major trade hub [7][8] - Real World Asset (RWA) digitization is another promising area for stablecoin application, with successful examples already emerging [7][8] - The potential for stablecoins to facilitate retail payments exists, particularly in regions with high inflation, but caution is advised in the Chinese context to protect monetary sovereignty [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The development of a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins is essential for the internationalization of the Renminbi, with a focus on real-world testing in cross-border trade [6][11] - Future steps may include replicating offshore experiences in free trade zones and gradually expanding the use of stablecoins in mainland China, with strict controls on foreign currency stablecoins [6][10] - The ongoing evolution of the offshore Renminbi market will likely lead to increased demand for stablecoins, particularly as more digitalized assets are introduced [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that while USD stablecoins can enhance the functionality and usage scenarios of the dollar, thereby reinforcing its position in the international monetary system, they do not fundamentally resolve the underlying issues of the U.S. dollar's twin deficits and may exacerbate risks in the long term [1] Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are essentially "on-chain" dollars, with issuers earning a "spread" [2] - They are designed to address volatility in the cryptocurrency market and improve payment efficiency, but their reliance on fiat and crypto assets for collateral reflects a centralized characteristic [2] - The market is highly concentrated, with USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 90% of stablecoin trading volume and about 80% of market capitalization [2] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory frameworks for stablecoins in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong share a common structure but differ in specifics [3] - The U.S. GENIUS Act focuses on payment-type stablecoins, requiring 100% cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves [3] - The EU's MiCA Act aims for broader regulation of crypto assets, emphasizing risk prevention and financial market stability [3] - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations are characterized by strict approval processes and high reserve coverage, balancing financial innovation with stability [3] Group 3: Macro Impact - Stablecoins enhance liquidity similar to fiat currencies, increasing the speed of money circulation but posing new challenges for central banks in liquidity management [4] - Potential effects include the creation of additional liquidity through lower reserve ratios and the emergence of a "shadow" banking system led by stablecoins [4]

Core Viewpoint - A systemic "devaluation" is sweeping the globe, with the Federal Reserve in Washington at its center, transforming from a stabilizer to an accelerator of this devaluation [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in the U.S. has risen to 2.7% as of June 2025, with the core PCE price index also stubbornly at 2.7% in May [3] - The U.S. federal deficit exceeded $1.3 trillion in the first six months of the 2025 fiscal year, averaging over $70 billion in debt issuance daily [6] - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed $1.3 trillion this year, surpassing the defense budget and becoming the fastest-growing expenditure in the federal budget [6] Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. national debt is expected to reach $50 trillion, with current levels already surpassing $36 trillion [5] - The "Inflation Reduction Act" signed in July 2025 raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to an estimated increase of over $3.4 trillion in new debt over the next decade [7] - By 2025, $9.2 trillion of national debt will mature, representing a quarter of the total debt, complicating refinancing efforts in a high-interest environment [6] Group 3: Trust and Credibility - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, which undermines market expectations [8][9] - The global consensus on the dollar is eroding, with countries increasingly opting for alternatives like gold and bypassing the dollar in trade [10][11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Diversification is crucial as the era of solely betting on dollar assets is over; attention should shift to undervalued assets in markets like A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14] - Scarcity is becoming a key value anchor, with gold and commodities likely to retain value during inflationary periods due to their limited supply [15] - Stablecoins are not a reliable value anchor as they are still tied to the dollar's credibility, which is under threat [16]

Group 1 - The recent enactment of the stablecoin legislation in the U.S. is seen as a move to expand the global role of the dollar into the digital realm, marking the beginning of a new "currency war" driven by the digital currency revolution [1] - As of mid-July, $2.17 billion in cryptocurrency has been stolen from various platforms this year, surpassing the total theft of $1.87 billion for all of 2024, with projections indicating this could reach $4 billion by the end of 2025 [1] - The surge in cryptocurrency-related crimes coincides with the Trump administration's favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies, raising concerns about global financial security due to the lack of regulation in various cryptocurrency exchanges [1] Group 2 - Trump's shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies is attributed to the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections and support from key figures in the crypto industry, such as Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal [4] - Nearly 70 officials appointed by the Trump administration have investments in cryptocurrencies or related companies, with investments ranging from small amounts to over $120 million [6] - The newly established "American Bitcoin Company," backed by the Trump family, has raised $220 million and is planning to go public [6] Group 3 - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $260 billion, with 95% being dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are increasingly investing in U.S. Treasury bonds [8] - The U.S. government has issued over $36 trillion in debt, and with declining credit ratings from major agencies, the expansion of the stablecoin market could see it grow to $3.7 trillion by 2030, making stablecoin issuers significant holders of U.S. debt [8] - This creates a new "on-chain U.S. debt cycle," where stablecoin companies purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, providing the government with cash while users receive stablecoins [8] Group 4 - The U.S. aims to "on-chain" the dollar to maintain its dominance, while criminals exploit new technologies to launder illegally obtained cryptocurrencies, complicating global financial governance [10] - The emergence of stablecoin legislation in the U.S. has sparked an invisible "currency war," raising questions about the future of the international monetary system amid increasing calls for de-dollarization and skepticism towards U.S. debt [10] - The challenge lies in establishing a fair and stable international financial order as various countries' local currencies seek to go "on-chain" in an era of decentralized and peer-to-peer payments [10]