冉学东 7月17日，美国《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（下称：《GENIUS法案》）在国会两院获得高票通过； 7月18日，特朗普总统签署了该法案。不出意外，接下来稳定币的发行、支付结算、交易、基础设施构架等将可能 走上快车道，这种扩张不可能不对全球货币政策、汇率市场等产生重大影响。 国内目前还在讨论的议题停留在稳定币并不"稳"；稳定币并非美元"救心丸"的层次。 不过欧洲央行明显感到了威胁，他们已经提出美元稳定币可能冲击欧元货币政策的控制力。7月28日，欧洲央行市 场基础设施和支付部门顾问尤尔根·沙夫发表文章指出，如果美元稳定币在欧元区广泛使用，欧央行对货币政策的 控制力可能被削弱。 主要原因是，美元稳定币在全球市场占比过高，占据绝对主导地位，约占稳定币总市值的99%。相比之下，欧元 稳定币仍处于边缘地位，市值不足3.5亿欧元。 而欧元是全球第二大国际储备货币，根据欧洲央行今年6月11日发布报告显示，2024年欧元占国际货币市场各类指 标约19%，其中外汇储备占比20%、未偿外币债券26%、国际信贷20%、存款账户15%，总体保持全球第二大货币 地位。稳定币方面的占比，欧元显然是落后了。 连全球第二大储备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) warns that a dollar-dominated digital currency system poses a strategic challenge to European monetary sovereignty, potentially undermining financial stability and monetary autonomy if no strategic response is implemented [1] Group 1: Impact of Dollar Stablecoins - Dollar stablecoins dominate the global market, accounting for approximately 99% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, while euro stablecoins remain marginal with a market cap of less than €350 million [1][5] - The potential widespread use of dollar stablecoins in the Eurozone could weaken the ECB's control over monetary policy, especially as stablecoins are increasingly adopted for mainstream payments and commercial transactions [6][7] Group 2: Financial Stability Risks - The ECB has previously warned that stablecoins could pose financial stability risks, particularly if a mainstream stablecoin were to collapse, potentially causing widespread disruption in the financial system [5] - Major U.S. payment organizations like Visa and Mastercard are integrating stablecoins into their global products, which could lead to significant transactions bypassing traditional banking systems [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses for Europe - The ECB has several policy options to counter the challenges posed by dollar stablecoins, including supporting well-regulated euro-denominated stablecoins to meet legitimate market demand and enhance the euro's international role [8] - The digital euro project and private sector innovations should be viewed as complementary elements of a broader European digital payment strategy, with the digital euro potentially serving as a strong defense of European monetary sovereignty [8] - Strengthening global coordination on stablecoin regulation is crucial to avoid a fragmented regulatory landscape that could exacerbate financial instability and the dominance of the dollar [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]

以下文章授权转载自公众号： 通俗解释 ，作者 谢幺。 俗解释 ，作者 谢幺。 有粉丝私信让我聊聊「稳定币」。 以下文章来源于通俗解释 ，作者谢幺 通俗解释 . 最终解释权归通俗所有 我猜可能是因为两个事，让大家最近关注这个东西： 一是《香港稳定币条例》即将在8月1日生效，听说蚂蚁集团和京东金融已经赶着去申请稳定币牌照了。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看路演详情 ）以下文章授权转载自公众 号： 通 我觉得要想真正理解 「稳定币」 ，肯定得知道，这玩意儿最开始是怎么流行起来的。 二是美国有一家做稳定币生意的公司最近上市了，股价蹭蹭涨。（可参考： 稳定币站上最强风口！5股获机构持仓超50亿！最新机构持仓曝光！ ） 所以大家就好奇：稳定币到底是什么？或者说，是个什么生意。（ 点此一键查看路演 ） 在2017年9月4日之前，一个中国的普通老百姓想买到加密货币，难度就跟充话费差不多。 只要在加密货币交易所的App里支付一笔钱，立刻就可以得到对应价值的币。 也正因为这个操作太简单，很多老百姓甚至大爷大妈都被忽悠买币。 2017年前后，各路牛鬼蛇神都跑出来发行加密货币，什么鸡币、牛币、马币、屎币、傻币，各路山寨币冒出来，挂到交易所里卖 ...

关联阅读： 国泰海通｜稳定币· 合集（一） ·概 要 · 在 《稳定币：如何重塑全球货币和资产》 中，我们详细分析了稳定币市场的发展现状、发展前 景及其对大类资产的影响。本篇专题我们进一步指出当前市场对于稳定币的几个认知误区。 误区一：稳定币的价值绝对稳定。 稳定币本质是锚定资产的信用延伸，其价值既存在技术性脱锚 风险，又受到锚定资产波动影响，因此稳定币的价值并非绝对稳定，而是相对稳定。 误区二：所有法币都可以大量发行稳定币。 并不是所有的货币都能大量发行稳定币，不同法币稳 定币最终的发展取决于法定货币本身的接受度，获得最广泛信任的法币稳定币会出现"赢家通 吃"。 误区三：美元稳定币会弱化美元信用。 美元稳定币的快速发展并不会冲击美元体系，而会进一步 强化美元地位，因为美元稳定币拓宽了美元的功能和使用范围。而美元稳定币对于其他国家尤其 是汇率波动大的经济体的法定货币反而冲击较大。 误区四：美元稳定币是美债的"救命稻草"。 美元稳定币市场仅能稍微缓解美国短债的压力，但短 债市场最终还是由美联储来主导。美元稳定币更不能缓解美国长债的压力，整体上来看，美元稳 定币对美债市场影响较小。 误区五：美元稳定币会大幅增加美 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the growing interest in stablecoins due to the upcoming implementation of the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation and the recent IPO of a stablecoin company in the US, which has seen its stock price rise significantly [1][2][90]. - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency that is pegged to a fiat currency, providing stability in value, which has led to their increased adoption in the cryptocurrency market [49][55][66]. - The emergence of stablecoins was driven by the need for a reliable medium of exchange in the cryptocurrency space, especially after regulatory crackdowns on direct fiat-to-crypto transactions [66][94]. Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of stablecoins, noting that they gained popularity after 2017 when traditional fiat channels for purchasing cryptocurrencies were restricted [66][94]. - The lack of regulatory oversight initially allowed for rapid expansion of stablecoin issuance, leading to concerns about the adequacy of reserves backing these coins [71][73]. - Recent enforcement actions against stablecoin issuers highlight the need for clearer regulations to ensure compliance and protect investors [82][86]. Group 3 - The article mentions that large institutions are now investing in cryptocurrencies and require stablecoins for transactions, emphasizing the importance of regulatory clarity for their participation [88][90]. - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation is seen as a significant step towards legitimizing stablecoins as a financial service, encouraging more companies to engage in the market [94][97]. - There is speculation that stablecoins could play a role in alleviating the US debt crisis by indirectly supporting the purchase of US Treasury bonds through their backing [99][102].