1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE canola futures closed lower on June 27 due to Trump's announcement of terminating all trade negotiations with Canada. The most actively traded November canola contract settled down 18.60 Canadian dollars at 692.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market - expected 67%. The good condition of U.S. soybeans and favorable weather continue to constrain the U.S. soybean market [2]. - The Canadian government's order to Hikvision Canada may tighten China - Canada economic and trade relations, potentially affecting canola exports to China. The 2025 canola planting area in Canada was revised down, and the current growth of Canadian canola is in the "weather - dominated" stage [2]. - In the domestic market, the arrival of imported soybeans has increased the oil mill operating rate, putting pressure on the meal market. For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture peak season has increased demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The futures price rebounded due to short - covering [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high inventory of oil mills continues to constrain the market price. Affected by the decline of Canadian canola, rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed lower, with increased short - term volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9415 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2572 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 56 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 271 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The position of the main rapeseed oil contract was 299,277 lots, down 20,126 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract was 577,028 lots, down 16,073 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil was 27,227 lots, up 3997 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 23,547 lots, up 12,269 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 100, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 20,860, down 684 [2]. - The closing price of ICE canola futures (active) was 698.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 11.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 4949 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5045.75 yuan/ton, down 106.45 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.84, up 0.01 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 184 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 102 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2]. - The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8210 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1390 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2840 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global canola production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 202 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.46%, down 2.8% [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 11.15 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 1.1 million tons, up 0.09 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 61.59 million tons, down 1.46 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 36.83 million tons, down 0.41 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 2.81 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal was 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.41%, down 0.51%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.42%, down 0.51% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.94%, down 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, down 0.16% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.16%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, down 0.57% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 15.17%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.88%, down 0.09% [2].

尽管如此，《纽约时报》还是对此次会晤直白地总结称："没有突破"。该报报道称，卡尼当日对媒体谨 慎乐观地表示，"我们还有很多工作要做，我并不是说我们只要一次会晤就能改变一切，但现在我们已 经开始行动了"。卡尼预测，两国将就取消关税和达成新协议进行长时间的讨论，期间"会有一些曲 折"。 英国广播公司（BBC）称，当被记者问及卡尼能否说服他取消关税时，特朗普表示，"不，事情就是这 样。" "这是一次非常友好的谈话"，他补充说，"但我们想自己生产汽车。"据法新社报道，特朗普曾于 会晤前在社交媒体发文称，"我们不需要他们（加拿大）拥有的任何东西，除了他们的友谊，希望我们 能永远保持这种友谊。而他们却需要我们的一切"。 《华盛顿邮报》称，在会晤后接受媒体采访时，卡尼透露，他曾要求特朗普停止谈论加拿大成为美 国"第51个州"的话题，并且说这种言论"没有益处"。"他是总统，他有自己的想法，"卡尼告诉记者，有 必要区分"愿望和现实"。卡尼还表示，会谈后他对双边关系感觉"更好"了，但他承认关于美国何时可能 取消对加拿大商品的关税没有时间表。 《华尔街日报》称，卡尼将此次与特朗普的会晤称作一块将定义他任期内美加关系的基石，这是他成 ...