| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月09日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一期货主力合约高位表现为调整态势,国产大豆现货价格表现偏强，本周呈现上涨的状态。1月中旬吉林省贸 易粮也将要进行竞价拍卖,持续关注。进口大豆方面南美新李大豆目前仍然是维持年产预期,供应端的风险仍 然偏低。短期持续关注政策端表 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 事件驱动 踏"浪"而行 ---2026 年菜系期货行情展望 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：全球菜籽供应宽松，国内菜系商品注意供应增加风险，菜系商品偏空配 我们的逻辑： 2025/26 年度全球菜籽产量同比大幅回升，全球菜籽供应预计将转为宽松。主要出口国的菜籽期初库存较低，但 是 2025/26 年度的菜籽产量创历史新高，预计全球菜系商品的供应压力将在 2026 年逐渐体现。在欧盟菜籽产量大幅 恢复、中加经贸关系不明朗、美国生柴政策不确定的情况下，全球菜系商品的进口需求目前看不乐观，将加剧加拿大 的出口压力，注意国际菜籽价格的下行风险。 2026年中国的菜系商品的供应受政策影响存在不确定性，注意关键时间节点、注意重大事件发生后的行情驱动。 在国内停止进口加拿大菜籽、菜粕和菜油后，国内菜系商品的供应收紧预期已经交易比较充分，由于性价比偏差，国 内菜油和菜粕的消费已经降至较低水平。在全球菜籽产量创纪录，主要出口国有出口压力的背景下，需要防范后续国 内菜籽、菜油、菜粕进口增加的风险。 风险提示：政策风险，天气风险 请 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 据商务部网站，11月14日，李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长在京会见加拿大国际贸易副部长斯图尔 特、副外长莫里森。双方就中加经贸关系和各自关注的议题进行沟通和交流。 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ★☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | ★☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★★☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一价格接近前期平台高点，价格展现出高位盘整的状态。现货方面收购价格稳定运行。国产大豆和进口大豆价差缩小,因为 基于中美贸易预期转好。进口大豆转强。目前海外大豆市场主要围绕美豆贸易预期转好，美盘大豆价格反弹，美豆离岸升贴水 价差跟巴西大豆升贴水价差缩小，中国进口大豆成本上升。国内大豆盘面压榨利润虽然进行了小幅的 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to discuss key recent work in the business sector and answer reporters' questions [1] - Li Chenggang, the international trade representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, led a delegation to Canada from the 24th to the 27th to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - The Chinese side expressed willingness to work with the U.S. to continue utilizing the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to resolve issues through equal dialogue and maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - During the meeting in Ottawa, Li Chenggang and Canada's Deputy Minister of International Trade, Stewart, engaged in candid, pragmatic, and constructive communication regarding the improvement and development of bilateral economic and trade relations [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to discuss key recent work in the business sector and answer reporters' questions [1] - Li Chenggang, the international trade representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, led a delegation to Canada from the 24th to the 27th to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - The Chinese side expressed willingness to work with the U.S. to continue utilizing the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to resolve issues through equal dialogue and maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - During the meeting in Ottawa, both sides engaged in candid, pragmatic, and constructive communication regarding the improvement and development of bilateral economic and trade relations, addressing each other's economic and trade concerns, and promoting practical economic cooperation [1]

Group 1 - The 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee was held in Ottawa, Canada, focusing on improving bilateral economic and trade relations and addressing mutual concerns [1][3] - The meeting was described as a significant step in implementing the consensus reached during the phone call between the two countries' leaders [3] - Both parties expressed a willingness to manage differences constructively and expand cooperation in various fields, leveraging the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership [3] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the importance of the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee as a platform for ongoing communication and achieving positive outcomes in the economic and trade sectors [3]

Core Points - The 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee was co-hosted by China's Vice Minister of International Trade Negotiations Li Chenggang and Canada's Deputy Minister of International Trade Stewart in Ottawa, focusing on improving bilateral economic and trade relations [1] - The meeting was seen as an important step in implementing the consensus reached during the recent phone call between the two countries' leaders, with both sides having conducted substantial preparatory work beforehand [1] - Both parties engaged in constructive discussions on specific pathways to enhance the development of China-Canada economic and trade relations under the spirit of mutual respect and win-win cooperation [1] Summary by Sections - **Bilateral Relations**: The meeting aimed to address and manage economic concerns between China and Canada, leveraging the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership as opportunities for collaboration [1] - **Cooperation Mechanism**: Both sides agreed to continue utilizing the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee as a platform for ongoing communication, aiming to achieve positive outcomes in the economic and trade sectors [1] - **Future Prospects**: The discussions emphasized the importance of constructive approaches and practical actions to manage differences and expand cooperation in various fields [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆ - **Soybean Meal**: ☆☆☆ - **Soybean Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Palm Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Rapeseed Meal**: ☆☆☆ - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Corn**: ★★★ - **Live Hogs**: ★☆☆ - **Eggs**: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - For most agricultural products, short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts. In the case of unclear tariff issues, the market for related products is mainly in a state of shock. For soybean - related products, there is a possibility of a good harvest in the United States this year. For some products like live hogs and eggs, there are corresponding trends in price changes and investment suggestions [2][3][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Currently, soybeans in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the pod - setting stage. Precipitation in the Northeast this week is beneficial to soybean growth. The price of the main contract of Beans 1 is weak, and the price difference with Beans 2 has narrowed. Imported soybeans are also weak in the short - term due to good weather [2] 3.2 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Trump's new tariff policy will take effect at zero o'clock on August 7th US time, but Sino - US tariffs have not been announced. The oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains above 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory has reached about 1 million tons. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market is in a shock state [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans is weak, and there is a high probability of a good harvest this year. According to historical trends, there is a probability that Chinese soybean oil will strengthen in the medium - term. The short - term supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil is weak. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has strengthened, and soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. It is recommended to buy on dips for soybean oil and palm oil [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus of the rapeseed market is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The inventory of rapeseed oil in China remains basically the same as last week, and the combined inventory of coastal oil mills and imported granular meal continues to decline. The domestic rapeseed futures price is expected to be in a shock state [5] 3.5 Corn - As of August 1st, CGS has conducted 10 auctions of imported corn, totaling about 2.4896 million tons, but the transaction rate and premium have been declining. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6] 3.6 Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs continues to decline in a shock state. The futures price of near - month contracts is under pressure. The futures of live hogs may have reached the peak, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [7] 3.7 Eggs - The 09 - contract of eggs has fallen sharply. The inventory of laying hens in July continues to increase. If the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year. It is recommended to use the reverse arbitrage idea [8]

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between the US and Canada have reached a deadlock, with the US imposing a 35% tariff on all Canadian goods starting August 1, which has put pressure on the new Canadian Prime Minister Carney [1] - In response to US pressure, Canada has taken a hard stance against China, demanding the cessation of operations of Hikvision Canada under the pretext of "national security" [1] - Canada announced a limit on steel imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Canada, including China, capping imports at half of the 2024 volume, with tariffs up to 50% on excess amounts [1][2] Group 2 - Canada has decided to impose an additional 25% tariff on products from all non-US countries, particularly targeting steel products from China, to protect its domestic steel industry [2] - The Canadian government's actions appear to be aimed at appeasing the US while disappointing China, indicating a shift in Canada's trade policy [2] Group 3 - Despite efforts to improve relations, including increased imports of Canadian crude oil, Canada has continued its aggressive stance, leading to a deterioration in China-Canada relations [4] - China has significantly increased its imports of Canadian crude oil to 7.3 million barrels, a record high, in an attempt to foster cooperation [4] Group 4 - Australia is reportedly close to an agreement allowing its suppliers to export canola seeds to China, which could total between 150,000 to 250,000 tons, signaling a potential shift in trade dynamics [6] - This move by China to allow Australian canola imports is seen as a response to Canada's actions and a way to strengthen ties with Australia [6] Group 5 - Canada, previously a major supplier of canola seeds to China, has seen its market share threatened due to its previous tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which damaged trade relations [9] - China's shift in canola seed contracts from Canada to Australia serves as a warning to Canada about the consequences of its trade policies [9]