(本文来自第一财经) 据商务部网站，11月14日，李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长在京会见加拿大国际贸易副部长斯图尔 特、副外长莫里森。双方就中加经贸关系和各自关注的议题进行沟通和交流。 ...

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Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to discuss key recent work in the business sector and answer reporters' questions [1] - Li Chenggang, the international trade representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, led a delegation to Canada from the 24th to the 27th to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - The Chinese side expressed willingness to work with the U.S. to continue utilizing the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to resolve issues through equal dialogue and maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - During the meeting in Ottawa, Li Chenggang and Canada's Deputy Minister of International Trade, Stewart, engaged in candid, pragmatic, and constructive communication regarding the improvement and development of bilateral economic and trade relations [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to discuss key recent work in the business sector and answer reporters' questions [1] - Li Chenggang, the international trade representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, led a delegation to Canada from the 24th to the 27th to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - The Chinese side expressed willingness to work with the U.S. to continue utilizing the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to resolve issues through equal dialogue and maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - During the meeting in Ottawa, both sides engaged in candid, pragmatic, and constructive communication regarding the improvement and development of bilateral economic and trade relations, addressing each other's economic and trade concerns, and promoting practical economic cooperation [1]

Group 1 - The 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee was held in Ottawa, Canada, focusing on improving bilateral economic and trade relations and addressing mutual concerns [1][3] - The meeting was described as a significant step in implementing the consensus reached during the phone call between the two countries' leaders [3] - Both parties expressed a willingness to manage differences constructively and expand cooperation in various fields, leveraging the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership [3] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the importance of the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee as a platform for ongoing communication and achieving positive outcomes in the economic and trade sectors [3]

Core Points - The 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee was co-hosted by China's Vice Minister of International Trade Negotiations Li Chenggang and Canada's Deputy Minister of International Trade Stewart in Ottawa, focusing on improving bilateral economic and trade relations [1] - The meeting was seen as an important step in implementing the consensus reached during the recent phone call between the two countries' leaders, with both sides having conducted substantial preparatory work beforehand [1] - Both parties engaged in constructive discussions on specific pathways to enhance the development of China-Canada economic and trade relations under the spirit of mutual respect and win-win cooperation [1] Summary by Sections - **Bilateral Relations**: The meeting aimed to address and manage economic concerns between China and Canada, leveraging the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership as opportunities for collaboration [1] - **Cooperation Mechanism**: Both sides agreed to continue utilizing the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee as a platform for ongoing communication, aiming to achieve positive outcomes in the economic and trade sectors [1] - **Future Prospects**: The discussions emphasized the importance of constructive approaches and practical actions to manage differences and expand cooperation in various fields [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆ - **Soybean Meal**: ☆☆☆ - **Soybean Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Palm Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Rapeseed Meal**: ☆☆☆ - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Corn**: ★★★ - **Live Hogs**: ★☆☆ - **Eggs**: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - For most agricultural products, short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts. In the case of unclear tariff issues, the market for related products is mainly in a state of shock. For soybean - related products, there is a possibility of a good harvest in the United States this year. For some products like live hogs and eggs, there are corresponding trends in price changes and investment suggestions [2][3][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Currently, soybeans in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the pod - setting stage. Precipitation in the Northeast this week is beneficial to soybean growth. The price of the main contract of Beans 1 is weak, and the price difference with Beans 2 has narrowed. Imported soybeans are also weak in the short - term due to good weather [2] 3.2 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Trump's new tariff policy will take effect at zero o'clock on August 7th US time, but Sino - US tariffs have not been announced. The oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains above 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory has reached about 1 million tons. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market is in a shock state [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans is weak, and there is a high probability of a good harvest this year. According to historical trends, there is a probability that Chinese soybean oil will strengthen in the medium - term. The short - term supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil is weak. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has strengthened, and soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. It is recommended to buy on dips for soybean oil and palm oil [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus of the rapeseed market is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The inventory of rapeseed oil in China remains basically the same as last week, and the combined inventory of coastal oil mills and imported granular meal continues to decline. The domestic rapeseed futures price is expected to be in a shock state [5] 3.5 Corn - As of August 1st, CGS has conducted 10 auctions of imported corn, totaling about 2.4896 million tons, but the transaction rate and premium have been declining. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6] 3.6 Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs continues to decline in a shock state. The futures price of near - month contracts is under pressure. The futures of live hogs may have reached the peak, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [7] 3.7 Eggs - The 09 - contract of eggs has fallen sharply. The inventory of laying hens in July continues to increase. If the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year. It is recommended to use the reverse arbitrage idea [8]

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between the US and Canada have reached a deadlock, with the US imposing a 35% tariff on all Canadian goods starting August 1, which has put pressure on the new Canadian Prime Minister Carney [1] - In response to US pressure, Canada has taken a hard stance against China, demanding the cessation of operations of Hikvision Canada under the pretext of "national security" [1] - Canada announced a limit on steel imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Canada, including China, capping imports at half of the 2024 volume, with tariffs up to 50% on excess amounts [1][2] Group 2 - Canada has decided to impose an additional 25% tariff on products from all non-US countries, particularly targeting steel products from China, to protect its domestic steel industry [2] - The Canadian government's actions appear to be aimed at appeasing the US while disappointing China, indicating a shift in Canada's trade policy [2] Group 3 - Despite efforts to improve relations, including increased imports of Canadian crude oil, Canada has continued its aggressive stance, leading to a deterioration in China-Canada relations [4] - China has significantly increased its imports of Canadian crude oil to 7.3 million barrels, a record high, in an attempt to foster cooperation [4] Group 4 - Australia is reportedly close to an agreement allowing its suppliers to export canola seeds to China, which could total between 150,000 to 250,000 tons, signaling a potential shift in trade dynamics [6] - This move by China to allow Australian canola imports is seen as a response to Canada's actions and a way to strengthen ties with Australia [6] Group 5 - Canada, previously a major supplier of canola seeds to China, has seen its market share threatened due to its previous tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which damaged trade relations [9] - China's shift in canola seed contracts from Canada to Australia serves as a warning to Canada about the consequences of its trade policies [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - **Soybean Oil**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Palm Oil**: Three red stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Soybean Meal**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Corn**: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, recommending to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Eggs**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as weather, policies, trade, and supply - demand relationships. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance, and long - term thinking for vegetable oils is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans maintain a rebound trend. There is a risk of short - term waterlogging in some areas in the future week. Policy - related bidding procurement had zero transactions today. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in North China rose by 40 yuan per ton today. The oil mill's operating rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory continues to increase. The demand - side提货量 is also at a high level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Pay attention to possible Sino - US trade news tonight and the August 1st tariff node. The price trend of soybean meal mainly depends on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both domestic oil and meal prices are rising, with meal stronger than oil. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. The palm oil main contract continues to strengthen. In the long - term, the development of biodiesel can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying vegetable oils on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather guidance [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal had a significant increase today due to changes in economic and trade expectations. Canada's plan to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel products has raised concerns about Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Although there is growth potential in Sino - Australian rapeseed trade, there are uncertainties in direct rapeseed imports. It is expected that the trend of rapeseed product inventory reduction will continue, and short - term prices may rise [6] Corn - Dalian corn oscillated sideways today. The increased auction sales by CGS have affected market expectations. There will be a US - imported corn auction tomorrow, with a quantity of about 300,000 tons. US corn is growing well, and Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig 19 contract strengthened after hitting a new low during the day and closed slightly higher. The spot price continued to decline, and the supply is accelerating. In the first half of the year, pork production increased by 1.3%. At the end of the second quarter, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In the first half of the year, the number of live pigs slaughtered was 366.19 million, an increase of 0.6%. The industry supply is abundant in the later period, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term. The industry can participate in short - selling hedging at high prices and pay attention to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures decreased with increasing positions, mainly in off - season contracts such as October and November. Due to high production capacity and insufficient culling, off - season contracts are under pressure, while the peak - season contract 09 is still relatively supported. The spot price rose today, and the seasonal demand peak is approaching. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the current high good - rate of US soybeans and concentrated arrival of imported soybeans lead to short - term supply relaxation and pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture increases the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The domestic rapeseed meal market is stronger than the external market due to trade policy uncertainty, and it may maintain short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the increase in palm oil inventory and the weakening of palm oil prices, along with the off - season of domestic oil consumption and high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, restrain the market price. However, the decline in rapeseed oil production pressure and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by the strengthening of soybean oil and shows increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9470 yuan/ton (up 66 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2653 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), ICE rapeseed is 689 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.5 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5065 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan) [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 72 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 344 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 14661 lots (up 228 lots), and for rapeseed meal are 24639 lots (up 10416 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 8911 (down 1175) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9570 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the oil - meal ratio is 3.64 (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 166 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 93 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8230 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8770 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2820 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the domestic annual forecast is 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and inventory: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 297 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86% (down 2.67%) [2]. Industry Situation - Imports and inventories: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.29 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons (up 1.05 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 million tons (up 1.18 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.46 million tons (up 0.14 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons (up 98.1 million tons), and that of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons. The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.25% (down 0.17%), and that of put options is 19.25% (down 0.18%). For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of call options is 11.73% (down 1.76%), and that of put options is 11.72% (down 1.77%) [2]. Industry News - On July 15, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, driven by the rise of other oils. The most actively traded November contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 690.80 Canadian dollars per ton. As of July 13, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, up 4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the expected 67% [2].