Group 1 - Canada has adjusted its tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products, which aligns with China's announcement of adjustments to its anti-discrimination measures against Canada [1] - The Ministry of Commerce of China initiated an anti-discrimination investigation against Canada on September 26, 2024, and announced additional tariffs on March 8, 2025 [1] - From March 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, China will not impose anti-discrimination tariffs on certain imported goods from Canada, following the recent adjustments by the Canadian government [1] Group 2 - Both countries aim to resolve trade issues in sectors such as electric vehicles, steel, aluminum, and agricultural products, based on the consensus reached by their leaders [1] - China is committed to promoting healthy, stable, and sustainable development of economic and trade relations with Canada [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by concentrated geopolitical and macro - risk events with unclear directions, and the macro - situation's influence on overall commodities needs attention [2][4] - Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors, and short - term trends are mainly in a state of shock, with some products having potential downward pressure [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Beans 1 - Policy - end soybean auctions increase marginal supply, with all 60,608 tons of planned auctions sold at an average price of 4,298 yuan/ton, a premium of 210 - 310 yuan/ton [2] - Affected by macro factors, volatility increases, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - US soybeans rose and then fell, and the main contract of Dalian soybean meal M2605 fell 1.05% [3] - In late January, the domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory rose to about 900,000 tons. In February, the crushing volume is expected to drop to 5.2 million tons, and the inventory may drop to about 650,000 tons [3] - Attention should be paid to the Brazilian soybean harvest, and short - term US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal may continue to be in a weak bottom - shock pattern [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by geopolitical and macro - risk events and the approaching Spring Festival, they are expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the overall commodity atmosphere [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil is strong and the meal is weak. The Australian seed crushing and rapeseed imports are the focus. The first - quarter Australian seed arrival and crushing will ease the supply tension [6] - Attention should be paid to the new dynamics of Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term rapeseed products are expected to be in a shock pattern [6] Corn - The main corn contract C2603 continues to fluctuate. The national grain sales progress is nearly 60%, and the spot prices in the Northeast and North ports are falling [7] - The downstream enterprises' Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the trading is dull. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to be in a weak shock pattern [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures are running weakly, and the spot prices are mainly falling. The slaughter rhythm is accelerating, and the second - fattening pigs still need to be slaughtered [8] - In the medium and long term, due to the increasing slaughter pressure, the pig price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures are fluctuating, and the spot prices are falling. The egg price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [9] - The chicken - chick replenishment in January shows a recovery, and the egg price in the first half of 2026 has the power to repair upwards. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the spot low point and then configure long positions [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Soybean No.1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybean futures have rebounded from their lows and are accompanied by an increase in positions. Pay continuous attention to the guidance from the policy and spot markets [2] - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal today opened higher and moved lower, with a weakening trend. The expected high - yield in South America has returned as the main trading logic, but the harvest progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans has been slow due to weather. In China, the procurement of soybeans for February and March shipments has exceeded 90%, and that for April shipments has exceeded 40%. Pay attention to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the impact of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports [3] - The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and investors' profit - taking have led to a decline in the price of Malaysian crude palm oil, and domestic palm oil has also been driven down. The US biomass diesel policy is bullish, and it is expected that the overall demand for US biomass fuel will increase year - on - year in the 26/27 market year. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesian policies and the supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil [4] - The rapeseed system has declined slightly today. Canadian rapeseed supply is relatively abundant, but exports are sluggish. It is expected that the rapeseed system will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports have remained stable, with sporadic price cuts by some deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China. Some deep - processing enterprises in Shandong have raised the purchase price. Corn supply is relatively sufficient this year, but prices are relatively strong due to reduced available grain sources and pre - holiday restocking demand. The Dalian corn futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [7] - The live hog futures have adjusted narrowly, and the spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south. Before the Spring Festival, there will be a situation of both strong supply and demand, but after the Spring Festival, prices are expected to be weak. In the long - term, the industry still needs to reduce production capacity [8] - The spot prices of eggs have generally increased across the country, while the futures have basically given back yesterday's gains. The Spring Festival stocking and the decline in supply have driven up spot prices. In the long - term, the fundamentals of eggs are gradually improving, and a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No.1 - The main contract price of domestic soybeans has rebounded from the low, and the trading volume on Friday was 38,114 tons, all of which were sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 3,950 yuan/ton, the same as Wednesday [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal opened higher and moved lower. The expected high - yield in South America is the main logic, but the Brazilian soybean harvest is slow. China has completed over 90% of February and March soybean shipments procurement and over 40% of April shipments. Pay attention to the Brazilian soybean harvest and the impact of Canadian imports [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and profit - taking have led to a decline in Malaysian palm oil prices, and domestic palm oil has also adjusted. The US biomass diesel policy is bullish, and it is expected that US soybean and soybean oil prices will be strong, which will also drive palm oil. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and the supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed system has declined slightly, with Canadian rapeseed supply abundant but exports sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports are stable, with some price cuts in Northeast China and price increases in Shandong. Corn supply is sufficient this year, but prices are strong due to reduced available grain and pre - holiday restocking. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate in the short term [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures have adjusted narrowly, and the spot market is strong in the north and weak in the south. There will be a situation of both strong supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but prices will be weak after. The industry still needs to reduce production capacity [8] Eggs - The spot prices of eggs have generally increased, while the futures have given back yesterday's gains. Spring Festival stocking and supply decline have driven up spot prices. In the long - term, the fundamentals are improving, and a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance of China announced a meeting on January 8 between Vice Minister Liao Min and former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien to discuss China-Canada relations and economic ties [1] - Topics of discussion included bilateral trade and investment between China and Canada [1] - The meeting highlights the ongoing dialogue and potential for strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming week will be on the potential economic and trade breakthroughs during Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, as well as the successful processing of Australian canola seeds [2][3][16] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit from January 13 to 17, 2026, aims to enhance cooperation in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, marking the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to China since 2017 [3][17] - The market is reacting positively to the potential easing of trade tensions between China and Canada, with Canadian ICE canola contracts rising, while the domestic market in China remains relatively weak [3][17] Group 2 - Canada has recently imposed trade restrictions on certain Chinese products, including cast iron sewage pipes and thermal paper, indicating ongoing trade tensions [4][18] - The upcoming discussions on canola seeds and electric vehicles between China and Canada remain uncertain, with the potential for further trade restrictions impacting negotiations [4][20] - The complexity of the topics to be discussed during the Prime Minister's visit suggests that fluctuations in trade relations are likely, leading to increased market volatility [6][20] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring the processing of Australian canola seeds, with current non-GMO CNF prices for Australian canola recovering to $570-$580 per ton, while Canadian canola is around $530 per ton [9][23] - The ability to anchor valuations based on Australian canola will depend on the successful processing of these seeds, with potential impacts from Dubai and Russian pricing if expectations are not met [9][23] - The first quarter will see a focus on the recovery of canola processing, with expectations that supply may not be sufficient before the Chinese New Year and contract deliveries [11][25] Group 4 - The overall valuation pressure on canola oil and meal is influenced by uncertainties in trade relations, with no significant rebound drivers currently in place [13][27] - If trade discussions do not meet expectations, there remains a possibility for weekly rebounds, particularly with the upcoming soybean auctions likely to exert more pressure on canola meal than on oil [13][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: Soybean, Palm Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product futures market shows a mixed trend, with different varieties affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions [2][3][4] - For most varieties, short - term market trends need to be continuously monitored, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures is in an adjustment state at a high level, and the spot price of domestic soybeans is rising. Jilin Province will conduct a competitive auction of trade grains in mid - January [2] - South American new - season soybeans maintain the annual production forecast, and the supply - side risk is low. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and market guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The USDA will release the January supply - demand report next Tuesday. Reuters predicts that the US 2025/26 soybean production will be 4.229 billion bushels, and the ending inventory will be 292 million bushels [3] - The US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2025 is expected to be 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase year - on - year. South American soybean production is expected to rise slightly [3] - If the South American weather does not change significantly, the soybean meal price will follow the US soybean price and fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are continuing to rebound. Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy [4] - The Malaysian palm oil market is at risk of further inventory accumulation. The overseas soybean supply - side risk is low, and the palm oil inventory pressure in Malaysia is expected to continue. The market is expected to be volatile [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products show a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil rises due to the increase in international crude oil prices, while rapeseed meal is pressured by the expectation of improved China - Canada economic and trade relations [6] - The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week. It is expected that the market will be in a weak and volatile state [6] Corn - Corn futures are oscillating at a high level. The spot price in Northeast China has risen slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised the purchase price [7] - The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn has a high transaction rate and premium. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are continuing to oscillate, and the spot price is slightly stronger. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is still high, but the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low [8] - There may be an accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the supply pressure is large. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound [8] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is stable. Due to the low replenishment in the second half of 2025, the egg - laying hen inventory will decline rapidly from January 2026 [9] - With pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take a long position in the first - half - year contracts of 2026 or adopt a long - near and short - far strategy [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish allocation for rapeseed products in 2026 [4][72] Core Viewpoints - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, with a significant year-on-year increase in production. However, the initial inventory of major exporting countries is low, and the supply pressure may be postponed. [4][18][19] - The import demand for global rapeseed products is not optimistic due to factors such as the significant recovery of EU rapeseed production, uncertain China-Canada economic and trade relations, and uncertain US biodiesel policies, which will increase the export pressure on major exporting countries, especially Canada. [4][72] - In 2026, the supply of rapeseed products in China is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers after major events. There is a risk of an increase in imports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in the future. [4][72] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Futures Trend Review Rapeseed Meal - In the first stage (January - end of March 2025), it followed soybean meal and was stronger than soybean meal. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed meal and the expected supply shortage in March pushed up the price, but the impact was short-lived. [9] - In the second stage (early April - end of August 2025), it followed soybean meal in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Concerns about trade policies and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans affected the price. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also had a short-term impact. [10] - In the third stage (early September 2025), it followed soybean meal in a weak and volatile trend. The increase in domestic soybean meal inventory and the recovery of soybean purchases from the US affected the price. [11] Rapeseed Oil - In the first stage (January - early March 2025), it was the weakest among the three major oils due to sufficient supply and no event-driven factors. [14] - In the second stage (mid-March - early June 2025), it was relatively strong due to the expected supply tightening after the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and the increase in ICE rapeseed futures prices. [14] - In the third stage (mid-June - early September 2025), it followed the overall oil sector in an upward trend, driven by the optimistic outlook for global biodiesel consumption and the expected supply shortage of palm oil. [15] - In the fourth stage (since mid-September 2025), it followed the oil sector in a downward trend, but the uncertainty of supply and the strong basis supported its performance. [15] 2. Main Supply and Demand Contradictions Analysis of Rapeseed Products 2.1 Global Rapeseed Supply: Significant Increase in Production, Supply Pressure May Be Postponed - The global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 6.27 million tons year-on-year, with the EU's production increasing by more than 3 million tons. The initial inventory is expected to decrease by 2.12 million tons, and the effective supply will increase by 4.15 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. [18][19] - **Canada**: The initial inventory in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The new rapeseed export is not ideal at the beginning of the season, and the export is expected to decrease by at least 2.5 million tons year-on-year. The domestic crushing volume is expected to remain high, but the inventory pressure may gradually appear from December to the end of March. [23][25][29] - **Australia**: The production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.233 million tons, an increase of 837,000 tons year-on-year. The export is expected to increase from 5 - 5.1 million tons to 5.8 - 5.9 million tons. China may account for about 50% of its exports. [32][33] - **Russia and Ukraine**: The rapeseed production in the Black Sea region reached a record high in the 2025/26 season. Russia's rapeseed production continues to increase, and its rapeseed oil and rapeseed exports may increase. Ukraine's rapeseed production has decreased for two consecutive years, and its rapeseed export has decreased this year. [38][41][43] 2.2 Global Rapeseed Product Demand - The global demand for rapeseed products is not optimistic, mainly due to the uncertainty of trade demand. Attention should be paid to the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations and the final plan and details of the US biodiesel policy. [45] - **EU**: The rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season has significantly recovered, and the rapeseed import demand is expected to decrease year-on-year. The absolute price and relative cost-effectiveness of rapeseed oil will determine the import demand. The import volume is expected to be 5.7 - 6.1 million tons. [46][48][54] - **US**: The import demand for rapeseed oil in 2026 may increase slightly. It is related to the US biodiesel policy, and the current policy details are uncertain. [56] - **China**: The import of rapeseed products in 2026 is uncertain, and the supply may turn loose. The import of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase, and the import of Canadian rapeseed depends on the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations. The import of rapeseed oil is expected to increase steadily, and the import of rapeseed meal may increase significantly. [62] 3. Summary of Main Contradictions and Strategy Outlook - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, and the supply pressure will gradually appear in 2026. The import demand is not optimistic, which will increase the pressure on major exporting countries. [71][72] - The supply of rapeseed products in China in 2026 is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers. There is a risk of an increase in imports. [72] - It is recommended to pay attention to the bearish allocation opportunities for rapeseed products in 2026. [72]

Group 1 - The meeting between China's international trade representative and Canadian officials focused on discussing China-Canada economic and trade relations [1] - The dialogue included communication on topics of mutual concern between the two countries [1]

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Douyi [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Douyi [1] - **Not Rated**: Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as Sino-US and Sino-Canadian economic and trade relations, supply and demand, and cost [2][3][4][6] - Different agricultural products show different trends and investment opportunities, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments and market supply and demand changes [3][4][7] Summary by Category Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of Douyi is approaching the previous platform high and shows a high-level consolidation state. The purchase price of domestic soybeans is stable, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state [2] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal has risen, and the inventory has increased slightly. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the policy adjustment of China's soybean imports from the United States and look for opportunities to buy on dips [3] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean futures has rebounded, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased. The crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state. The price of soybean oil is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the supply of the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Palm Oil - The palm oil market in Malaysia still faces high inventory pressure, and the production in Indonesia is higher than expected. The export demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price of rapeseed meal has risen significantly, mainly due to market trading on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. It is recommended to maintain a short - term long - position thinking [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, and it benefits from the listing of imported rapeseed oil from Russia [6] Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn is running strongly, but the supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the import situation of corn, and the price may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of subsequent slaughter, it is expected that the price of live hogs may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong, and the far - month contract has hit a new high. The price of vegetables provides support for the price of eggs. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to discuss key recent work in the business sector and answer reporters' questions [1] - Li Chenggang, the international trade representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, led a delegation to Canada from the 24th to the 27th to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - The Chinese side expressed willingness to work with the U.S. to continue utilizing the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to resolve issues through equal dialogue and maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - During the meeting in Ottawa, Li Chenggang and Canada's Deputy Minister of International Trade, Stewart, engaged in candid, pragmatic, and constructive communication regarding the improvement and development of bilateral economic and trade relations [1]