加贸易关系和放开澳菜籽商业采买的可能。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9095 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2419 | 29 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 14 | -38 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -46 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is tightening due to restrictions on near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the current shutdown of oil mills. Import soybean clearance policies also affect near - month supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and a relatively loose supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed restrain prices. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, domestic oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices and keeps the basis at a high level. Import soybean clearance policies affect near - month supply, while the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The market is affected by the strengthening of soybean oil [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9,130 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,390 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 611.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 7.4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,448 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 52 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 47 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 220,345 lots, up 15,404 lots; rapeseed meal is 662,451 lots, up 17,751 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 18,486 lots, up 5,499 lots; rapeseed meal is - 45,495 lots, down 5,351 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3,297 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,570 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 10,018.75 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,456.26 yuan/ton, up 97.53 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 770 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 50 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 1,330 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 660 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; domestic rapeseed production annual forecast is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 626 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. - Oil mill rapeseed inventory is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.06%, down 0.38%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.05%, down 0.39%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 13.87%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 11.59%, down 0.08% [2]. - For rapeseed oil: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.68%, up 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.69%, up 0.06%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.15%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.78% [2]. Industry News - On January 5 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures rose more than 1%, but remained in a narrow range since before Christmas. The March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.90 Canadian dollars or 1.14% to 610.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. Key Points to Follow - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations. Also, pay attention to the possibility of opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed [2].

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 (文章来源：生意社) 生意社01月04日讯 交易商品牌/产地交货地最新报价 菜籽 粕 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 江苏南通市场江苏南通江苏省/南通市2450元/吨 天津市场天津天津市2430元/吨 福建厦门市场福建厦门福建省/厦门市2440元/吨 辽宁营口市场辽宁营口辽宁省/营口市2660元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly oscillating, by - products are oscillating, soft commodities like sugar are slightly oscillating, cotton is strongly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidating with a bullish bias [2]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,143, up 21 with a 0.51% increase, trading volume is 1.72 million lots (up 0.67 million lots), and open interest is 5.05 million lots (down 0.05 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open - Interest PCR**: Each option variety has different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes, which reflect the sentiment and strength of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.41, up 0.06, and the open - interest PCR is 0.89, down 0.04 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of option factors, each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200, and the support level is 4000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of each option variety also varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.535, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.76, up 0.40 [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, China's soybean procurement and Brazilian soybean import costs have an impact. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Fundamentally, trading volume, delivery volume, and basis have changed. Option strategies involve constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentally, production has decreased and exports have increased. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: Fundamentally, downstream consumption is weak. The option strategy is to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **By - product Options** - **Pig**: Fundamentally, supply has decreased and demand is in the peak season. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: Fundamentally, supply is sufficient and demand is weak. Option strategies involve constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: Fundamentally, cold - storage inventory has decreased. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: Fundamentally, inventory has decreased. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options** - **Sugar**: Fundamentally, production in Thailand has decreased and domestic industrial inventory is increasing. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: Fundamentally, China's cotton production has increased. Option strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option strategy, a neutral short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot [13]. - **Grain Options** - **Corn**: Fundamentally, the corn germ market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Starch**: Option strategies are not detailed in the text, but related data on price trends, option factors, etc. are provided [309][311]. - **Log Options**: Option strategies are not detailed in the text, but related data on price trends, option factors, etc. are provided [328][330]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9040 | -6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2387 | -4 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 43 191383 | 11 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日, ...

【大商所、郑商所夜盘收盘 菜籽粕涨超1%】智通财经12月25日电，大商所、郑商所夜盘收盘，多数上 涨。菜籽粕、PX等涨超1%，玉米、豆一等小幅上涨；焦煤、焦炭等跌超1%，甲醇、塑料等小幅下跌。 转自：智通财经 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with significant declines in several key metals, including palladium, which fell nearly 10%, and platinum, which dropped over 5% [1] - Lithium carbonate experienced a decline of over 3%, while Shanghai tin decreased by more than 2% [1] - Other commodities such as nickel, rapeseed meal, and coke also saw declines exceeding 1% [1] Group 2 - Conversely, ethylene glycol rose by more than 2%, and Shanghai silver, eggs, and white sugar increased by over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - On December 25, 2025, commodity futures opened with significant declines in several key contracts, indicating a bearish trend in the market [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - Palladium's main contract dropped nearly 10%, reflecting a substantial decrease in demand or market sentiment [2][5]. - Platinum fell over 5%, indicating a similar bearish sentiment in precious metals [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate experienced a decline of over 3%, which may impact the electric vehicle and battery sectors [2][5]. - Shanghai tin decreased by more than 2%, suggesting potential supply chain issues or reduced industrial demand [2][5]. - Nickel, rapeseed meal, and coke all saw declines of over 1%, further indicating a broader downturn in commodity prices [2][5]. Group 2: Price Increases - Ethylene glycol rose by over 2%, which may suggest increased demand or supply constraints in the chemical sector [2][5]. - Shanghai silver, eggs, and sugar all increased by over 1%, indicating some resilience in these markets despite the overall bearish trend [2][5].

| 油脂油料早报 | | | --- | --- | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/23 | | | 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： | | | 12月18日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为870,199吨，符合预期 | | | USDA周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年12月18日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为870,199吨，此前市场预估为 | | | 800,000-1,000,000吨，前一周修正后为810,110吨，初值为795,661吨。 | | | 当周，对中国大陆的大豆出口检验量为386，010吨，占出口检验总量的44.36%。 | | | 截至2024年12月19日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1,775,083吨。 | | | 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为14,586,856吨，上一年度同期为27,027,931吨。 | | | 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售396，000吨大豆 | | | 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售396,000吨大豆，其中330,000吨在2025/2026市场年度付运，66,000吨在2026/2027 | | | 市场年度付运。 | | | 12月4日止当周 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential Canadian imports, supply is expected to increase. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand. The rapeseed meal price has maintained a narrow - range fluctuation recently. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a structurally tight supply currently, with oil mills shut down and inventory decreasing, which supports the price. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, future supply pressure will increase. The abundant supply and good substitution of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil has rebounded slightly, and the short - term downward trend may slow down [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 8864 yuan/ton (up 120), rapeseed meal is 2337 yuan/ton (up 14), ICE rapeseed is 594.5 CAD/ton (down 5.6), and domestic rapeseed is 5481 yuan/ton (up 33) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is - 4 yuan/ton (down 2), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 3) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 200067 lots (down 8112), rapeseed meal is 604362 lots (up 5874) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 28709 lots (down 1210), rapeseed meal is - 57003 lots (up 17456) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3876 sheets (down 50), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9270 yuan/ton (down 230), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton (up 40) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9388.75 yuan/ton (down 230), the import cost of rapeseed is 7294.69 yuan/ton (down 83.67) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 526 yuan/ton (down 29), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 83 yuan/ton (up 26) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8270 yuan/ton (up 20), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1040 yuan/ton (down 80), rapeseed - palm oil is 1020 yuan/ton (down 80), soybean - rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton (down 40) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed imports are 0 tons (down 11.53 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton (up 100) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 tons (up 0.1), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0% [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 tons (down 2), and rapeseed meal imports are 22.06 tons (up 6.29) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 tons (down 0.15), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons (down 0.02) [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 tons (down 2.4), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 18.61 tons (down 0.75) [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 tons (down 0.15), South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.8 tons (up 1.4) [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.9 tons (up 0.9), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons (down 0.45) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan (up 858) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 tons (down 67.4) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.05), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.06) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.82% (up 0.17), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.85% (up 0.09) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.49% (up 1.54), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.52% (up 1.55) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 1.67), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 0.67) [2]. Industry News - On December 19, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, with the most - actively traded March contract falling below 600 CAD/ton for the first time since March 2025 [2]. - The US soybean export season has abundant supply, and Brazil is expected to have a high - yield soybean harvest. The US is facing competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. China's soybean purchases have slowed down [2]. - Canada's AAFC raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons [2]. - Indonesia started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]