1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. Recently, rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined from high levels, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the sharp rise in international oil prices have promoted the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in the first 20 days of March, and the production has decreased slightly month - on - month, with the end - of - month inventory expected to decline. The domestic rapeseed oil futures price has generally maintained a high - level shock recently, with short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9950 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2399 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 726.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5898 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 119 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 239709 lots, up 2276 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 570722 lots, down 7656 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 22168 lots, down 4498 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 138882 lots, down 11735 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 805 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10401.25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5344.36 yuan/ton, down 29.43 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 470 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 241 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8980 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9920 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1440 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.02 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.25 million tons, down 8.25 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 26 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 6.13%, down 1.87% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.4 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.11%, down 1.84%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.1%, down 1.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.94%, up 0.25%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.1%, up 0.03%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.09%, down 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.3%, down 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 20 (Friday), the ICE rapeseed futures fluctuated and closed lower, but were still close to the key support level near the top of the long - term uptrend. The most actively traded May rapeseed futures contract closed down 1.80 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.50 Canadian dollars per ton, and the contract fell 1.8% this week [2]. - The continuous conflict in the Middle East has led to a continued strengthening of international oil prices, boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, as the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which has frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans, continuing to restrain the price of the US soybean market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on March 18, possibly due to profit - taking. The commodity market is affected by the Iran war. The recent rapeseed meal futures have been oscillating at a high level with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended. The rapeseed oil futures have generally maintained a high - level oscillation recently, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discriminatory tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. The supply pressure of soybeans is increasing with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, which restricts the price of US soybeans [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict drives up international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in March, and the inventory at the end of the month is expected to decline. The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, which is expected to tighten palm oil exports. Domestically, the spot market for oils and fats has a weak trading atmosphere, and the expected increase in the import of Canadian rapeseed in the later period adds supply pressure in the far - month [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9854 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 146 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is 5 yuan, down 11 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 16849 lots, up 1880 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 129361 lots, up 15965 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 805 sheets, down 100 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 286 sheets, down 300 sheets. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 726.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5852 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10480 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10461.25 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5361.22 yuan/ton, down 27.75 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.87, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 626 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 237 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8880 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1600 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 610 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 36 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, unchanged. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 25.58%, down 1.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 25.76%, down 1.72%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 29.21%, up 1.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 0.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.64%, up 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.85%, up 0.03% [2]. Industry News - On March 18 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, possibly due to profit - taking. The futures price fluctuated between gains and losses during the day because the commodity market was continuously affected by the Iran war. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract closed down 3.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.20 Canadian dollars per ton. The attacks on Middle - East energy infrastructure increased the risk of further disruption of energy supply in the region, driving up oil prices and boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans and continued to restrict the price of the US soybean market [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. Currently in the off - season of aquaculture demand, the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with expectations, with limited impact on the market. Driven by the rise of US soybeans, rapeseed meal continues to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in international oil prices have promoted the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel, and the external oil market has significantly supported the domestic market. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure. However, the market has already anticipated this, with limited impact on the market. Recently, the market is trading on the biodiesel demand drive, and the rapeseed oil futures price has also fallen from its high due to the decline in international oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9778 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2480 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 722 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 6049 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 117 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 253,670 hands, down 4131 hands; rapeseed meal is 652,140 hands, down 65,210 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 12,200 hands, down 381 hands; rapeseed meal is - 107,842 hands, up 27,909 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 1125 sheets; rapeseed meal is 2311 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9530 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 10,435 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 5395.43 yuan/ton, down 63.96 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 632 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 140 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import quantity: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 33 yuan/ton, up 117 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 200,000 tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; imports of rapeseed meal: 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 60,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 15,000 tons, up 8500 tons [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 255,500 tons, down 5500 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory: 80,500 tons, down 12,400 tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 0 tons, down 80,000 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory: 283,000 tons, down 15,000 tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量: - 1800 tons, down 1800 tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量: 5400 tons, up 5400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: 30.086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail: 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: 5.254 million tons, up 606,000 tons [2]. Option Market - Rapeseed meal: Implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.65%, down 3.95 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.65%, down 3.94 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 16.75%, up 0.76 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 16.35%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - Rapeseed oil: Implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.86%, down 5 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, down 4.96 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 19.27%, down 0.36 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 20.13%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On March 10 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell along with other vegetable oils due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. The most actively traded May contract fell 6.30 Canadian dollars, settling at 720.10 Canadian dollars per ton; the July contract fell 6.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 729 Canadian dollars; the November contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars, settling at 714.10 Canadian dollars [2]. - There are strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market hopes that the Sino - US negotiations can make a breakthrough. Affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the US soybean biodiesel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing will support the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - Statistics Canada's survey shows that the total intended rapeseed planting area in Canada in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres of traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed meal futures continued to rise supported by the strong US soybean market, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. Currently, it is the off - season of aquaculture demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid [2]. - The price of rapeseed oil futures continued to rise significantly driven by the international oil price increase and the expectation of biodiesel demand. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase the import volume in the far - month, but the market has already expected this, so the impact on the price is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9954 yuan/ton, up 288 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2433 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active contract) was 729.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 10.4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 6056 yuan/ton, up 222 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 122 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 19239 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 273150 lots, and rapeseed meal was 746843 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 6544 lots, down 607 lots; rapeseed meal was - 130978 lots, up 42003 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 725 sheets, and rapeseed meal was 1411 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10810 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2690 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10835 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5453.78 yuan/ton, up 75.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 856 yuan/ton, up 272 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was 257 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.05 [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 9240 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9830 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3270 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - Spot price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1570 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil was 980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal was 580 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: Forecast annual production was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecast production was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; rapeseed meal was 0.5 million tons [2]. - Oil mill inventories: Rapeseed was 20 million tons, up 12.5 million tons [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 8%, up 4.8% [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 57 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal was 29.8 million tons, up 2.3 million tons; East China rapeseed oil was 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; East China rapeseed meal was 9.29 million tons, up 0.85 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil was 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; South China rapeseed meal was 1.5 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; rapeseed meal was 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production: Monthly production was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons [2]. - Consumption in the catering industry: Monthly social consumer retail sales of catering was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: Monthly production was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 22.74%, up 1.95%; rapeseed oil was 18.88%, up 1.79% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 22.74%, up 1.95%; rapeseed oil was 18.85%, up 1.76% [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 15.99%, up 0.68%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 16.18%, up 0.82%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 19.63%, up 2.38%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 19.48%, up 0.93% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On March 6 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher and recorded weekly gains, boosted by the rising soybean oil price. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 10.90 Canadian dollars to 730.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - There is a strong expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market's outlook for US soybean demand remains uncertain. However, due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the soaring crude oil price, the US soybean biodiesel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing will support the US soybean market to rise [2]. - Statistics Canada's survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the previous average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - The operating rate of rapeseed and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Canadian canola and rapeseed meal will flow back to the domestic market, increasing the supply pressure in the far - month. The current stage is the off - season for aquaculture demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are basically in line with previous expectations, with limited overall impact. The rapeseed meal futures closed higher with fluctuations today, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten slightly. The optimistic forecast of the US Department of Agriculture for the demand of soybean oil for biofuel production and the rise in international oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict have boosted the rapeseed oil market. The anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already anticipated this. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has been oscillating strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9489 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2318 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 708 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5840 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 74 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 49 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 278896 hands, up 908 hands; rapeseed meal is 878387 hands, down 2333 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 9642 hands, up 1254 hands; rapeseed meal is - 202173 hands, up 13505 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 1411 sheets, up 411 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8670 yuan/ton, unchanged; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 10200 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan [2]. - Import cost price: Imported rapeseed is 5316.44 yuan/ton, up 30.44 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 661 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 192 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 1150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 530 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: Forecasted annual production is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecasted production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; rapeseed meal is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Oil mill inventories: Rapeseed is 200 thousand tons, up 125 thousand tons [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly startup rate is 3.2%, up 3.2 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit is - 141 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil is 10 thousand tons, up 5 thousand tons; coastal rapeseed meal is 6.5 thousand tons, up 0.5 thousand tons; East China rapeseed oil is 261 thousand tons, up 19 thousand tons; East China rapeseed meal is 92.9 thousand tons, down 0.6 thousand tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil is 8 thousand tons, up 3 thousand tons; South China rapeseed meal is 298 thousand tons, up 23 thousand tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil is - 1800 tons, down 1800 tons; rapeseed meal is 5400 tons, up 5400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed is 30086 thousand tons, up 307 thousand tons; edible vegetable oil is 5254 thousand tons, up 606 thousand tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales: Catering revenue is 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option is 21.12%, up 0.6 percentage points; rapeseed meal at - the - money put option is 21.12%, up 0.6 percentage points; rapeseed oil at - the - money call option is 17.71%, up 0.64 percentage points; rapeseed oil at - the - money put option is 17.71%, up 0.67 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal is 13.83%, up 0.07 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed meal is 14.5%, up 0.01 percentage points; 20 - day rapeseed oil is 16.55%, down 0.02 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed oil is 18.17%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On March 4 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, but the increase was less than that of CBOT soybean oil futures. The market is waiting for the 2026 planting intention report of Statistics Canada to be released on Thursday. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 2.80 Canadian dollars to 709.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - There is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. At the same time, there is still uncertainty about the prospect of US soybean demand. However, affected by the soaring crude oil prices, the US biofuel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing supports the US soybean market [2]. - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 is expected to be 1.92 million tons, lower than 2.18 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 165 thousand tons, lower than 275 thousand tons in the previous year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's Outlook Forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the suspension of tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural products from March 1 until the end of 2026, indicating a thaw in trade tensions between China and Canada following a preliminary agreement during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to China in January [1] Group 1: Tariff Suspension Details - China will suspend the 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal and peas, as well as the 25% tariff on lobsters and crabs [1] - The announcement is seen as a direct implementation of the outcomes from Carney's visit to China [1] Group 2: Oilseed and Other Products - The announcement did not address the previously discussed canola seed tariff issue, which Carney indicated could be reduced from 84% to approximately 15% by March 1 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce stated that the investigation into Canadian canola seeds will conclude on March 9 [1] - Chinese buyers have reportedly begun to book Canadian canola seed shipments for March delivery, signaling optimism regarding potential tariff reductions [1] Group 3: Market Implications - The announcement did not cover other products such as canola oil and pork, but there is speculation that further adjustments may be announced before March 1 [1] - In 2024, China is expected to be the second-largest export market for Canadian canola seeds, making the tariff policies significantly impactful on Canadian agriculture and export revenues [1]

Group 1 - The benchmark price of rapeseed meal on February 23 is 2620.00 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 0.77% compared to the beginning of the month when it was 2600.00 CNY per ton [1] - The daily price remains unchanged at 2620.00 CNY, with the one-year position being at the median level [3] - The minimum price recorded over the year is 2356.00 CNY, while the maximum price is 2851.67 CNY, indicating a price range with a median value of 2603.84 CNY [3]

Group 1 - The benchmark price of rapeseed meal on February 20 is 2620.00 CNY/ton, which represents an increase of 0.77% compared to the beginning of the month (2600.00 CNY/ton) [1] - The daily price on the same date is reported as 2620.00 CNY, with a daily increase of 0.00% [3] - The one-year price position is at the median, with a minimum value of 2356.00 CNY and a maximum value of 2851.67 CNY [3] Group 2 - The median price is recorded at 2603.84 CNY, with a top position difference of -231.67 CNY and a bottom position difference of 264 CNY [3] - The average price over the period is noted as 2559.72 CNY [3]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed with most contracts declining, indicating a bearish trend in the market [2] - Notable declines included tin futures dropping over 7%, silver futures falling more than 5%, and crude oil prices decreasing by over 4% [2] - Other commodities such as international copper and fuel oil saw declines exceeding 2%, while polypropylene (PP) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) fell by over 1% [2] Group 2 - On the positive side, shipping rates on the European route increased by over 3%, indicating a potential uptick in shipping demand [2] - Other commodities that experienced gains included caustic soda and eggs, both rising by more than 2%, while apples and double glue paper saw increases exceeding 1% [2] - Additionally, oilseed meal and soybean meal showed slight upward movements [2]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed mixed on February 12, with significant movements observed in various sectors [2] - The shipping index for Europe increased by over 6%, indicating strong demand in that segment [2] - Lithium carbonate rose by more than 3%, reflecting ongoing interest in battery materials [2] Group 2 - Urea and soybean futures both saw increases of over 2%, suggesting positive market sentiment in agricultural commodities [2] - Other commodities such as rapeseed meal and apples experienced gains exceeding 1%, while starch and polysilicon saw slight increases [2] - On the downside, silicon iron and palm oil fell by more than 1%, with plastics and glass also experiencing minor declines [2]