菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9813 | -61 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2419 | -12 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 363 | -64 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 32 | -2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 243297 | -7957 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 387336 | -23838 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -745 | -1497 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -16912 | -12632 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 4161 | -1092 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 2000 | -745 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 655.9 | 0.3 期货收盘价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown persists, lacking data guidance, and the market focuses on Sino-US policy agreements and the return of US soybean orders. Domestically, near - term soybean and soybean meal supplies are relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease. The cost - end support for soybean meal is strong, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff policies and the growth of South American soybeans [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, suppressing the price. Domestically, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The supply is expected to tighten, but demand is also weak. In the long - term, the global supply - demand situation will suppress the price, and in the short - term, it will stabilize with the rebound of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and Sino - Canadian trade relations [3]. - For different participants: Traders with inventory can hedge against price drops by short - selling a small proportion; those seeking to build inventory can hedge on the futures or options market to prevent sudden price increases. Feed mills can also take similar hedging measures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The market expects a downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, which may tighten the fundamentals and support the price. The price has been oscillating at a high level between 1100 - 1160 cents/bu. Analysts' average estimate of the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bu/acre, a decrease from the September estimate. The export and ending inventory are expected to be adjusted downward. The current US soybean has a cost advantage over Brazilian soybeans, but there is still pressure on further price increases without large - scale purchases from China [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.02/bu, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.0886 million tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume since the beginning of the crop year was 8.89 million tons, lower than the previous year [18]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. The sowing in Argentina has started. China's procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to future weather conditions and China's procurement [26][27]. - As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons [27]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The international rapeseed price has stabilized and rebounded due to Canada's biofuel production incentive plan and the rebound of oilseed soybean prices. The 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase in consumption demand of 2.06%. The trade volume may decline due to trade policies, and the inventory and stock - to - use ratio are increasing [52][53]. - As of November 2, Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 188,400 tons. The cumulative exports from August 1 to November 2 were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease from the previous year. The commercial inventory was 1.3187 million tons [53]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The soybean meal futures continued to oscillate. Although the Sino - US trade policy has changed, the cost of US soybeans is still higher, and the near - term supply is loose, suppressing the upward space. However, the overall import cost increase provides strong support for the price [63][64]. - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September and a 17.25% increase from October 2024. The cumulative import from January to October was 95.682 million tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - As of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to reach 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% in the 46th week (November 8 - 14) [86]. - The rapeseed crushing in coastal areas has basically stopped, with a crushing volume of 0 tons and an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - As of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline [101]. - As of November 13, the total soybean meal transaction was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 221,100 tons. The daily average transaction was 172,700 tons, a 43.35% increase. The total soybean meal pick - up was 900,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons [119]. 3.5 Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price ranged from 3010 - 3050 yuan/ton this week, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. The average basis in coastal markets was between - 21 and - 61 yuan/ton, with mixed changes compared to the previous week. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan/ton [137].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are depleted with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand as the temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, influenced by trade optimism, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from lows and strengthened in the short - term. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near - month. Oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted, and shutdowns are common, so rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. But the supply of soybean oil is abundant and has a good substitution advantage, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs. After a continuous decline, the rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from the low recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,549 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The futures closing price of ICE rapeseed was 640.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1 Canadian dollar, and that of rapeseed was 5,120 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 391 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 133 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 2,830 hands to 211,735 hands, while those of rapeseed meal increased by 34,202 hands to 442,304 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil increased by 6,170 hands to - 2,365 hands, and those of rapeseed meal increased by 17,365 hands to 14,402 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,726 to 5,112, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 200 to 2,755 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,897.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,864.44 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.75, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 216 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 1 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons, and the annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1,068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons, and that of rapeseed meal was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons, and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit was 662 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 3,128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons, and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 450.86 billion yuan, up 1.29 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 21.78%, down 0.03 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil was 12.74%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 25.75%, up 0.5 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 26.92%, up 0.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.7%, down 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.03%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures changed little on November 5, after significant price fluctuations in recent days, the market consolidated without a clear direction. The January rapeseed futures rose 0.30 Canadian dollars to close at 640.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years, which boosted the US soybean futures price and benefited the domestic meal market [2]. - The leaders of Canada and China met in South Korea last week but failed to make a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The rapeseed operation rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

Group 1 - The average spot price of rapeseed meal in China on November 6 is 2636.32 CNY/ton, which is 87.32 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 2549.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market saw the main rapeseed meal contract close at 2549.00 CNY/ton on November 6, with a daily increase of 1.47%, reaching a high of 2554.00 CNY/ton and a low of 2532.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 362,939 contracts [2] Group 2 - As of November 6, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 2755, a decrease of 200 from the previous trading day [3] - Coastal oil mills have a rapeseed meal inventory of 0.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, while the inventory in East China is 260,500 tons, down by 7,000 tons from the previous week [3] - The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of China is 514,800 tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons from the previous week [3] Group 3 - The Canadian Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food, Marie-Claude Bibeau, has expressed a desire to deepen agricultural trade cooperation between Canada and China [4] - The rapeseed meal inventory at coastal oil mills remains low, and demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing as aquaculture enters the off-season [4] - The uncertainty in China-Canada trade relations may lead to operational adjustments in coastal oil mills, with a potential halt in soybean processing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the futures market in supporting the real economy and enhancing risk management for various industries, particularly in the context of increasing price volatility in global markets [1][2]. Group 1: Role of Futures Market - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has listed 27 futures products and 20 options, covering key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and chemicals, forming a market-based risk management chain [1]. - The collaboration between Dahuacaifang and ZCE aims to explore the practical applications of the futures market in supporting the construction of a strong manufacturing and agricultural nation [1]. Group 2: Risk Management in Industries - In the context of rising commodity price fluctuations, futures tools are becoming essential for stabilizing operations across various industries, transitioning from single hedging to multi-dimensional tools [2]. - Companies like COFCO and Dongguan Fuzhiyuan are utilizing futures tools to effectively manage price volatility risks, shifting from traditional pricing to basis trading as a mainstream practice [3][5]. Group 3: Case Studies of Successful Implementation - Dongguan Fuzhiyuan has adopted a systematic hedging approach since 2004, forming a risk-sharing mechanism with upstream and downstream enterprises [5]. - Guangzhou Yelong International Trade Company has developed four trading models, including basis trading and futures-spot combinations, to enhance profitability and manage risks [7][8]. Group 4: Impact on Chemical Industry - The launch of futures for caustic soda at ZCE provides chemical enterprises with diverse risk management strategies, addressing the increasing price volatility in the sector [11][13]. - Companies like Dongbo Chemical have established a futures-spot risk management system, leading to over 20% growth in sales and 30% increase in exports in recent years [13]. Group 5: Future Directions - The chemical industry is shifting from scale competition to a comprehensive competition model that includes energy efficiency and carbon management, with futures tools playing a crucial role in this transition [13][14]. - Companies are encouraged to promote derivative business models and enhance risk management capabilities across the industry [14].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. The overall performance shows that oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils and agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is weakly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidating. The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of the A2601 soybean contract is 4,083, with a price change of - 9 and a change rate of - 0.22% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are provided. Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean option is 1.16, with a change of 0.34, and the open interest PCR is 1.14, with a change of 0 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each agricultural product option are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean option is 4,200, and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean option is 11.535, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.26, with a change of - 0.46 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean**: The soybean price is stable with a slight upward trend. The implied volatility of soybean option is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean weekly crushing volume has decreased. The implied volatility of soybean meal option is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of Malaysian palm oil is expected to face pressure, and the export growth rate has narrowed. The implied volatility of palm oil option is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The peanut oil price is stable. The implied volatility of peanut option is at a relatively high historical level. The recommended strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The average price of pigs in some regions has increased slightly, but the market may face downward pressure in the future. The implied volatility of pig option is above the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy, a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens has decreased. The implied volatility of egg option is at a relatively high level. The recommended strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The price of apple futures has increased due to poor fruit quality. The implied volatility of apple option is above the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The physical inventory of jujube has increased. The implied volatility of jujube option has rapidly risen above the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi has decreased, and the basis has weakened. The implied volatility of sugar option is at a relatively low historical level. The recommended strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The China Cotton Price Index has increased, and the basis is volatile. The implied volatility of cotton option is at a relatively low level. The recommended strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The supply of corn in the origin is increasing, and the trading enthusiasm of traders is weakening. The implied volatility of corn option is at a relatively low historical level. The recommended strategy is a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a bias for various varieties, with "偏空" (Bearish) and "偏多" (Bullish) ratings for different financial and commodity instruments such as stock indices, bonds, and commodities [4]. Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on economic growth within a reasonable range, improving total factor productivity, and enhancing residents' consumption rate [6]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market and improve market - stabilizing mechanisms [7]. - Different commodities have their own market drivers and trends. For example, gold is influenced by factors like geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and market sentiment, while oil is affected by geopolitical sanctions and market trading trends [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Main News International News - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, leading to the continuation of the government shutdown [5]. Domestic News - The full - text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting goals for economic and social development, including economic growth, technological self - reliance, and reform breakthroughs [6]. Industry News - The central bank governor stated that the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, execute existing measures, and study new policies to support the capital market [7]. 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - A table shows the daily returns of various outer - market assets, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and different commodities such as oil, gold, and agricultural products [10]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices are entering a direction - selection phase. With a potentially loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds opened higher and closed higher. With the central bank's supportive monetary policy and expected market liquidity, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to be supported [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Geopolitical sanctions on Russian oil companies have been imposed, but the downward trend of oil prices remains due to unclear market situations and limited impact on Russian oil transportation [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin and methanol production decreased, and coastal methanol inventories increased. Market uncertainties have intensified price fluctuations [15]. - **Rubber**: As the rubber - tapping season progresses, supply pressure may increase. However, potential weather impacts on production and positive progress in Sino - U.S. trade negotiations may support prices [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Following the oil trend and with high downstream demand, the market may start to oscillate after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures oscillated. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and market sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [18][19]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell significantly and then rebounded slightly. Geopolitical risks have cooled, and after a rapid rise, prices are adjusting due to weakened driving factors and accumulated profit - taking [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. With a tight supply of concentrates and high smelting output, an Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. With an increase in zinc concentrate processing fees and expected production growth, the price may fluctuate within a range due to different inventory situations at home and abroad [22]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke market oscillated upwards at night. While high iron - water production provides support, the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits should be considered [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated upwards at night. With good progress in Sino - U.S. trade talks and high U.S. soybean export inspections, the domestic market may oscillate in the short term [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oil prices were weak at night. With expected increases in palm oil production and exports in Malaysia, and supply - side expectations of relaxation, short - term prices are under pressure [25]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated within a range. The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and Brazilian factors are dragging down prices. In the domestic market, cost support and import - related rumors may affect prices [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to oscillate. Affected by the U.S. government shutdown and domestic market conditions, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated. With multiple shipping companies reducing freight rates and limited capacity control, the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product options market shows diversified trends, with oilseeds and oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains each having their own market characteristics. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,129, up 37 with a 0.90% increase, and its trading volume is 12.84 million lots, a decrease of 3.11 million lots compared to the previous period [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various agricultural product options reflect the market sentiment and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.78, a decrease of 0.18, and the open - interest PCR is 1.05, an increase of 0.07 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open - interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of each agricultural product option are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200, and the support level is 3900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each agricultural product option is at different levels and shows different trends. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 13.095%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.55%, an increase of 0.94% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: Construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Build a bearish spread combination strategy of put options and a short bearish call + put option combination strategy, as well as a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: Adopt a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Agricultural By - product Options**: - **Pig**: Build a bearish spread combination strategy of put options, a short bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long covered strategy [10]. - **Egg**: Build a bearish spread combination strategy of put options and a short bearish call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: Construct a short bullish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: Build a short bullish strangle option combination strategy and a long covered hedging strategy [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options**: - **Sugar**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: Build a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered strategy [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy [13].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese buyers have collectively suspended the procurement of Brazilian soybeans for December and January, signaling a significant shift in the market dynamics between China and Brazil, the world's largest soybean buyer and supplier respectively [1][7]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Brazilian soybean offshore prices have surged from $565 to $628 per ton over the past three months, an increase of over 11% [3]. - The price premium for Brazilian soybeans has become unreasonable, with the landed price per bushel being nearly $3 higher than Chicago futures, while U.S. soybeans are only $1.7 higher [3]. Group 2: Brazilian Confidence Factors - Brazil's confidence stems from three main factors: the exclusion of U.S. soybeans from the Chinese market since May, limited alternative suppliers capable of meeting China's demand, and the belief that China has no choice but to buy Brazilian soybeans due to its significant import gap [4][6]. - The U.S. soybean industry is facing severe challenges, with storage facilities at over 98% capacity and reports of grain storage collapses [4]. Group 3: China's Countermeasures - In response to Brazil's price hikes, Chinese buyers have paused purchases, leading to increased storage utilization and rising storage costs in Brazil [7]. - China has quickly pivoted to secure a large order of 130,000 tons from Argentina, capitalizing on Argentina's recent tax policy changes that made their soybeans more competitive [9]. Group 4: China's Strategic Advantages - China has established three strategic advantages: a substantial national reserve of over 200 million tons of soybeans, diversified import sources from 16 countries, and increased use of alternative feed sources, reducing reliance on soybeans [12][18]. - The increase in domestic soybean planting area by 15% this year indicates a shift towards self-sufficiency and reduced dependence on Brazilian imports [18]. Group 5: Market Implications - Brazil's short-sighted pricing strategy may lead to a loss of long-term market share in China, as the country could have solidified its position instead of pursuing immediate profits [14][20]. - The ongoing shifts in China's soybean import landscape suggest a move towards a more resilient and diversified food security system, reducing reliance on any single supplier [18][20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 22, 2025. Some commodities like asphalt and SC crude oil rose, while others such as沪金 and沪银 declined. Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals and market outlooks, with some expected to be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, and some suggest temporary exit for observation due to factors like upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose nearly 3%, and some commodities like rapeseed, SC crude oil, etc. rose over 2%.沪金 and沪银 fell nearly 4%, and some like palm oil and rapeseed meal fell over 1%. In the stock index futures, most contracts declined, while in the bond futures, most contracts rose or remained flat. In terms of fund flow,沪金 2512, lithium carbonate 2601, and沪铝 2512 had fund inflows, while中证 1000 2512,中证 500 2512, and沪深 300 2512 had outflows [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Copper (沪铜)**: It opened low and moved weakly. Supply - side factors like copper mine accidents and low inventory limited the decline. Although the high price was resisted by the downstream, the export window was open and it was in the peak season, so the market was expected to be mainly in a range - bound oscillation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and moved strongly. It showed a pattern of strong supply and demand. With rising prices, production profit improved, and demand from the downstream battery industry was strong. However, demand was expected to decrease slightly next month, and it was expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + planned to increase production in November, which would increase supply pressure. The demand peak season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical risks decreased. The market was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation in the medium - to - long term, and it was recommended to exit the market temporarily and watch the Sino - US trade negotiation [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply was at a high level, with开工率 slightly rising. Demand was restricted by factors like funds and weather. With the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strengthening of the basis in Shandong, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 was low. Supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream, and although it was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [15][16]. - **Plastic**:开工率 was at a medium level. Supply increased with new capacity. Although the agricultural film was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [17]. - **PVC**: Supply开工率 decreased, but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Export expectations weakened, and inventory pressure was large. With the lack of actual policies and high inventory, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and moved strongly. Supply was tight due to production control and environmental policies, and demand was supported by the peak season. It was recommended to pay attention to the impact of major meetings [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened flat and moved strongly. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost increased due to rising coal prices. Demand was weak as the autumn fertilizer season ended. The market was expected to stop falling and stabilize [22].