美国中期选举政策
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美国中期选举年,特朗普政府政策前瞻与投资策略:在政策旋涡中顺应时代潮流
Western Securities· 2026-03-19 12:25
Group 1 - The U.S. midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election. Young voter turnout will be a key variable affecting the election outcome, as their concerns focus on inflation, healthcare, and housing [1][8][15] - The report suggests that Trump's policies may shift towards economic and healthcare issues to gain support, while the Democratic Party needs to rebuild trust among young voters [1][8][15] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policy is expected to ease, with potential risks of increased tariffs on polysilicon, wind turbines, and drones. The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review process may lead to a painful renewal and annual review [2][20][25] - The healthcare policy will continue to follow the "America First, market-oriented, and reduce federal intervention" logic, with the "Great Healthcare Plan" unlikely to pass in an election year, but reforms in drug pricing and PBM are potential compromise areas [2][26][28] Group 3 - The housing policy aims to regulate demand but is unlikely to address the core supply-side issues, as young people's housing problems stem from low real income and tight housing supply [2][30][31] - The energy policy pressures tech giants to resolve their own power supply issues, as rising electricity prices due to data center demand could pose risks for the Republican Party in the midterm elections [2][36][37] Group 4 - The investment strategy for the midterm election year suggests focusing on precious metals and opportunities in Latin America, which has significant potential in key minerals, infrastructure, and new energy development [3][45][47] - The report highlights the importance of addressing electricity supply shortages as a constraint on U.S. tech development, recommending a focus on grid equipment and related engineering themes [3][49][50] - Geopolitical conflicts and increased strategic reserves may benefit basic and strategic metals, with a specific recommendation to focus on copper due to its demand driven by AI and energy storage [3][52]