1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's second - term tax cut expansion may lead to concerns about the unsustainability of US public debt. Combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy and Interest Rates - The US Senate and House of Representatives passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. Trump's administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. With better - than - expected economic data and lower - than - expected inflation in April, the Fed may cut interest rates in September or December [3]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. Given the economic data and the economist's prediction of the neutral interest rate, the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May and will continue to reduce its government bond holdings by £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. Due to inflation data, the market expects the BoE to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the benchmark rate to 0.5%. With inflation data and the stance of some officials, the market still expects the BoJ to raise interest rates [4]. US Debt and Liquidity - The US outstanding public debt is $36.2 trillion, hitting the $36.1 trillion debt ceiling. Trump's second - term tax cut bill may increase the fiscal deficit by at least $3.3 trillion in the next decade, raising concerns about debt sustainability [9]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale is about $162.8 billion. From a weekly perspective, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse repurchase scale decreased, and the Treasury's general account cash balance decreased. Before the debt - ceiling issue is resolved, the Treasury's cash account balance may decline, and the Fed may slow down its balance - sheet reduction [10][12]. Inflation and Yields - US consumers' one - and five - year inflation expectations have significantly increased from January to May. Trump's tariff policies and the expansionary tax cut bill have raised medium - and long - term inflation expectations [16][18]. - Trump's tax cut bill, large - scale bond maturities, and high federal funds target rates have led to a significant increase in US medium - and long - term Treasury yields [22]. - The expectation of out - of - control Treasury supply has pushed up medium - and long - term Treasury yields, while the declining consumer - end inflation has led to an increase in medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields [25]. - The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury yields in the US is positive and expanding, mainly due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing short - and medium - term yields and concerns about fiscal deficits pushing up long - term yields [29]. Financial Market Indicators - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week, with declines in credit, stock valuation, safe - asset, and volatility indicators [32][33]. - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases decreased, with only credit - card loans showing a week - on - week increase [37]. - The US Redbook commercial retail sales' weekly annual rate decreased. As of May 17, the year - on - year growth rate was 5.4%, indicating a still - prosperous consumer industry but more price - sensitive consumers [40]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index decreased due to the increase in 15 - and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates. The number of new and existing home sales in March decreased [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.881 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, indicating a still - prosperous labor - market demand [47]. International Comparison - The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany has increased, mainly due to the ECB's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing German yields and the increase in US Treasury supply and delayed Fed interest - rate cut expectation pushing up US yields [51]. - The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar, driven by concerns about US debt and reduced expectations of the BoE's interest - rate cuts [53]. Precious Metal Market - The volatility of the US gold ETF index has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased, with a reduction in SPDR gold ETF holdings [54][59]. - The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE increased compared to last week [63][64]. - The premium of domestic gold futures prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for gold cross - market arbitrage opportunities [68]. - The gold basis in London and COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and SHFE is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - level long - entry opportunities for the SHFE gold basis [72]. - The spreads between near - and far - month gold contracts in COMEX and SHFE are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE gold monthly - spread arbitrage opportunities [76]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [79]. - The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased compared to last week [83]. - The premium of domestic silver futures and spot prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver cross - market arbitrage opportunities [87]. - The silver basis in COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver basis is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver basis arbitrage opportunities [91]. - The spreads between near - and far - month silver contracts in COMEX and Shanghai are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver near - and far - month contract spread arbitrage opportunities [96]. - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) is much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Given central - bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the "gold - to - silver ratio" on dips [99]. - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) are much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Due to OPEC's oil - production increase expectation and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for these ratios on dips [102].