Core Viewpoint - Current data indicates that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation remains relatively mild, with core CPI in May-June 2025 falling short of expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.1-0.2% [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The limited impact of tariffs on inflation is attributed to several factors: significant inventory accumulation by companies, a temporary buffer against rising tariffs, a weighted import tariff rate lower than theoretical values, weak corporate demand, and low service inflation [1] - It is expected that tariffs will moderately increase U.S. core inflation in the third quarter, although there is market disagreement regarding the magnitude and duration of this inflation rise [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, despite anticipated inflation recovery in the third quarter having limited constraints on the Fed's rate cuts in 2025 [1] - Short-term inflation recovery is expected to have a limited impact on U.S. Treasury yields, although the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may still exert pressure on these yields [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential buffers created by financial deregulation, expansion of stablecoins, and changes in U.S. Treasury issuance structure, which may influence the economic landscape [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. dollar may face depreciation pressure [1]