Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its dynamics in relation to macroeconomic factors, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S.-China trade relations and U.S. economic data. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **April Gold Price Adjustment**: The adjustment in gold prices in late April was attributed to the visibility of macro narratives, such as the difficulty of achieving de-dollarization in the short term and positive signals from U.S.-China negotiations. Additionally, despite weak U.S. economic data, the decline in interest rate expectations was delayed, leading to a shift of risk-averse funds towards risk assets [1][4][5]. 2. **Short-term Price Predictions**: In the short term, gold prices are expected to stabilize with limited upward or downward drivers, forming a new platform for sideways trading. The positive factors from trade tensions have been fully priced in, and U.S. economic data remains resilient [6][23]. 3. **Long-term Bullish Outlook**: The long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with the U.S.-China tariff situation not reversing. A 30% tariff has been established, with potential fluctuations of 24% in the future. The negative economic impact of tariffs and their positive influence on gold prices are expected to persist [7][8]. 4. **U.S. Economic Data**: The first quarter GDP showed resilience, driven by private consumption and investment, but trade deficits pose significant negative impacts. The trend of "import grabbing" supports short-term data but is unsustainable in the long run [9]. 5. **Dollar Credit Contraction**: Long-term factors contributing to the contraction of U.S. dollar credit include de-globalization, excessive debt issuance, and the rise of domestic AI. These factors collectively indicate a prolonged contraction cycle for dollar credit [10][11]. 6. **Impact of Trade Relations on Gold**: The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are expected to continue influencing the U.S. economy, with the likelihood of recession increasing if interest rate cuts are delayed. This scenario supports the bullish outlook for gold [8][9]. 7. **Manufacturing Repatriation Challenges**: The U.S. manufacturing repatriation plan aims to reduce trade deficits but faces high costs and effectiveness concerns. Successful implementation could pressure gold prices in the medium to long term, but the plan's feasibility is questionable [14][15]. 8. **Gold Price Sensitivity to Trade Agreements**: If the U.S. reaches tariff reduction agreements with other countries, leading to increased exports and reduced trade deficits, this could exert downward pressure on gold prices. However, the actual impact remains uncertain due to the complexities of trade dependencies [14]. 9. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold as a strategic move against dollar credit contraction and to support internationalization efforts, particularly in the context of the RMB [17][18]. 10. **Market Dynamics Between Different Gold Markets**: Shanghai gold has shown stronger performance compared to New York and London gold, reflecting robust domestic demand and confidence among Chinese investors. The long-term outlook suggests that domestic gold prices may outperform due to the underlying economic conditions [21][22]. Other Important Insights - The volatility in gold prices during April was linked to external risk asset declines, leading to liquidity squeezes, which have historical precedents [3]. - The potential for gold price rebounds exists, but achieving a sustained upward trend is challenging given the current market conditions [13]. - The effectiveness of U.S. manufacturing repatriation is under scrutiny, with historical precedents indicating only marginal improvements during past trade tensions [16]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the intricate relationship between gold prices, macroeconomic indicators, and geopolitical factors, providing a nuanced understanding of the current and future landscape of the gold market.