Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs indicates a rising demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy, with gold prices showing signs of recovery after a period of decline [4][5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of October 24, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) increased by 0.13%, reaching a price of 8.99 yuan, with a cumulative rise of 3.09% over the past two weeks [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF was 5.89 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.48%. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 32.88 billion yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [4]. - The total shares of the gold ETF reached 4.413 billion, marking a one-year high [5]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion stemming from strained U.S.-Russia relations and uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policies, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.91% to $4,143.2 per ounce [4]. - Recent sanctions against Russia by the EU and the U.S. have contributed to the supportive sentiment for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Huatai Securities suggests that short-term declines in gold prices do not alter the long-term investment logic for gold, viewing recent pullbacks as opportunities for accumulation [5]. - The market consensus on the long-term value of gold-related assets remains intact, with expectations for many gold companies to achieve both volume and price increases by 2026 [5]. - Over the past 14 days, the gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 7.355 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.449 billion yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand stemming from heightened tensions in US-Russia relations and uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia fell by 1.19% and gold stock ETFs decreased by 0.28% [1] - The postponement of a US-Russia meeting by Trump and the EU's formal approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia have contributed to the support of safe-haven sentiment [1] Group 2: Analysis and Forecast - According to CITIC Futures, after a gradual slowdown in the decline, precious metal prices experienced a slight rebound, with the US government shutdown continuing and overseas data remaining sparse [1] - The short-term bottom for precious metals may be confirmed, with expectations of entering a phase of oscillation and adjustment [1] - Key focus areas for the month include the performance of the US-China meeting around the APEC conference and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts in the fourth quarter [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of US dollar credit being a core foundation, leading to an ongoing increase in the value of physical currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand stemming from heightened tensions in US-Russia relations and uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1] Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia fell by 1.19% and gold stock ETFs decreased by 0.28% [1] Geopolitical Factors - The postponement of a US-Russia meeting by Trump and the EU's formal approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia have contributed to the support of safe-haven sentiment [1] - The US Treasury Secretary announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, further influencing market dynamics [1] Market Analysis - According to CITIC Futures, after a gradual slowdown in the decline, precious metal prices experienced a slight rebound, with the US government shutdown continuing and overseas markets remaining in a data vacuum [1] - The short-term bottom for precious metals may be confirmed, with expectations of entering a phase of oscillation and adjustment [1] Future Outlook - Attention is drawn to the upcoming APEC meeting and the potential for US-China discussions, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts in the fourth quarter [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of US dollar credit being a core foundation, leading to an ongoing increase in the value of physical currency [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bottom of precious metals may be confirmed, and they are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the long - term price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [1][3]. - The price of precious metals rebounded slightly on Thursday after the decline gradually slowed down. The U.S. government shutdown continued, overseas was still in a data vacuum period, and the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were calm [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - U.S. President Trump will make a statement in Washington at 3 p.m. local time and will visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will accompany Trump to Japan and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [2]. - During the federal government shutdown, the U.S. government's national debt scale exceeded $38 trillion on Wednesday for the first time in history. The debt has been growing rapidly in the past decade due to factors like population aging and increased interest payments [2]. - The release of the U.S. initial jobless claims data originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on October 23 was postponed due to the government shutdown [2]. Price Logic - In the short - term, the precious metals are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. In the month, attention should be paid to the Sino - U.S. meeting around the APEC meeting. In the fourth quarter, focus on the Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year, but the 2026 interest rate cut expectation has not been reflected. Pay attention to the game around the December FOMC meeting [3]. - Personnel changes in the Fed within 1 - 2 quarters are an important variable. After Thanksgiving, the nomination of the new Fed chairman is expected to be confirmed, which may bring greater long - term interest rate imagination [3]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of the right - wing tendency after Koike Sanae is elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan [3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The contraction of the U.S. dollar credit is the core foundation. In the long - run, the price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [3]. - This week, the price range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between $3,900 and $4,400 per ounce, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively [43]. - The precious metals index on October 23, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day decline of 5.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.32%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.27% [44].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop followed by a period of high volatility, with COMEX gold futures reaching a low of $4021 before recovering to close at $4116.60 per ounce, marking a 0.18% increase [1] - The global gold market saw an average daily trading volume of approximately $388 billion in September, representing a month-on-month increase of 34%, with off-exchange trading also strong at an average of $191 billion, up 12% from the previous month [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures analysis suggests that precious metals may enter a monthly adjustment phase, with key factors to monitor including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical and trade developments [2] - The market is particularly focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with three rate cuts already priced in for this year, while expectations for cuts in 2026 have yet to materialize, making the December meeting a critical point of interest [2] - The potential impact of the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister, who has right-wing tendencies, is also a factor to consider in the precious metals market [2] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of dollar credit being a core foundation, indicating a continued upward trend in the value of physical currency [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals continued the adjustment trend on Wednesday, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous day. They may enter a monthly - level adjustment, but the long - term bull market trend remains intact. The key factors to watch are Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, geopolitical and trade changes [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information from Different Sections 1. Key News - Trump said that China and the US would reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that they maintain close communication, and no specific information is available [2] - New Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth over 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) to help families cope with inflation. The plan focuses on anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security. The specific scale is being finalized and may be announced next month [2] - UK's September CPI increased 3.8% year - on - year (expected 4%, previous 3.8%), and was flat month - on - month (ending the growth since February 2025, expected 0.2%, previous 0.3%). Core CPI increased 3.5% year - on - year (expected 3.7%, previous 3.6%) [2] 2. Price Logic - Precious metals continued the adjustment on Wednesday, with better performance during the Asian trading session. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets continued to repair upwards. Future focuses include Fed's monetary policy (the expectation of three rate cuts this year is well - priced, but 2026's rate - cut expectation is not), personnel changes (new Fed chair nomination may be confirmed after Thanksgiving), and the potential impact of Kaochi Sanae's right - wing tendency. In the long run, the bull market remains due to the shrinking of the US dollar's credit [3] 3. Outlook - This week, the price range of spot London gold is expected to be between $3900 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot London silver is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3] 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the commodity index (2234.80, - 0.20%), the commodity 20 index (2531.94, - 0.48%), and the industrial products index (2204.41, + 0.87%) [42] 5. Sector Index - For the precious metals index on October 22, 2025, the daily decline was 3.94%, the decline in the past 5 days was 2.56%, the increase in the past month was 12.63%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 50.14% [44]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metal prices may enter a shock adjustment phase, and when gold and silver prices fall below the 5 - day moving average, it can be regarded as a reference for phased profit - taking. In the long run, the contraction of the US dollar credit will drive up the value of physical currency, and the price centers of gold and silver will continue to move upward. The long - term bull market of gold has not reversed, and the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [1][3]. - The expected trading range for London gold spot this week is [3900, 4400] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver spot, it is [48, 55] US dollars per ounce [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Key Information - The Bank of Japan may slightly raise its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 at its October policy meeting and maintain the view that the economy is moving towards a mild recovery. Bank of Japan official Takada So said it is necessary to further adjust monetary easing policies, the inflation target has basically been achieved, concerns about the impact of tariffs have eased, attention must be paid to the risk of inflation exceeding expectations in Japan, the process of reducing bond purchases must be cautious and time - consuming, the US economy is unlikely to experience a significant recession, and now is the best time to raise interest rates [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order on October 17 (local time), imposing a new 25% tariff on imported medium - and heavy - duty trucks and parts starting from November 1, and will also impose a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said that if the government shutdown does not end, the White House will consider taking stronger measures [2]. 2. Price Logic - On Monday during the Asian trading session, precious metals fluctuated. Before the opening of the domestic night session, the prices of gold and silver in the overseas market rose slightly, but immediately fell back after the opening of the domestic night trading session, and the domestic market was weaker than the overseas market. After the price volatility in the overseas and domestic markets significantly increased, both COMEX and domestic exchanges increased margin requirements and issued risk warnings, indicating a further over - heating risk in the market [1][3]. - In the short term, the positive factors are gradually being digested. Positive signals from China - US trade negotiations have reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Non - farm and inflation data are to be released this week, which may end the trading logic of "no news is good news" after the National Day. The silver lease rate has declined from its peak, and the overseas spot situation has been alleviated temporarily [3]. - In the long term, debt over - issuance and anti - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the US dollar credit. Gold, as a currency beyond sovereignty, is still the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks. The trend of global central banks' gold purchases remains unchanged, and the long - term bull market of gold has not reversed. The silver trend is still consistent with that of gold, and the value loosening of credit currency has a spill - over effect on physical currency, so the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [3]. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 20, 2025 is presented, including the characteristic index and the sector index. The commodity index is 2231.41, down 0.06%; the commodity 20 index is 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index is 2183.97, up 0.37%. For the precious metals index on October 20, 2025, the current value is 3394.67, with a daily decline of 3.31%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month increase of 16.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 53.44% [43][44][46].

Core Insights - The price of gold futures for December 2025 on the New York Commodity Exchange has surpassed $4200 per ounce, marking a historical high, which has led to increased activity in the gold recycling market [1] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei gold market has seen a significant rise in gold recycling volume, but merchants are becoming more cautious, adjusting deposit requirements for transactions [2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold recycling business has experienced a surge, with reports indicating a nearly 20% month-on-month increase in recycling volume at individual stores since October [6] - The "Love Recycling" platform reported a 149% year-on-year increase in gold recycling volume from October 1 to October 10, with a notable 313% increase in the days following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [6][7] Group 2: Changes in Trading Practices - Several gold merchants in Shenzhen Shui Bei have altered their pricing and deposit requirements for gold transactions, with some platforms increasing the deposit from 20 yuan to 40 yuan to lock in gold prices [2][3] - A specific platform has removed the option for pricing transactions, indicating a shift in trading functionalities due to increased regulatory scrutiny [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are actively evaluating the value of their gold holdings, with some opting to sell their gold at current high prices, while others choose to hold onto their assets [4][6] - The price difference for gold recycling in the Shui Bei market has widened to around 30 yuan, compared to the previous range of 10 to 15 yuan, indicating increased caution among merchants [7] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association has issued a warning letter in response to the operational irregularities observed among gold merchants, highlighting the need for enhanced risk monitoring and regulatory measures [2][3] - Industry experts suggest implementing a registration and whitelist system for gold merchants to prevent unauthorized large-scale delayed delivery transactions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are primarily driven by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions, expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing central bank purchases, with profit-taking contributing to the sharp declines observed in the afternoon [1][4][5]. Gold Market Summary - Gold prices surged significantly, with spot gold reaching a high of $4179.7 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 56% [2][4]. - Analysts from Société Générale have raised their gold price target for the end of 2026 to $5000 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and stable demand from central banks [4]. - The expectation of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is anticipated to further support gold prices, with a potential for continued upward movement [5]. Silver Market Summary - Silver prices have shown even stronger momentum than gold, with spot silver hitting a high of $53.579 per ounce, reflecting an approximate 80% increase year-to-date [7][9]. - The London silver market is experiencing unprecedented liquidity issues, leading to significant price volatility, with rental rates for silver soaring above 30% [9][10]. - Analysts from Bank of America have increased their silver price target for the end of 2026 from $44 to $65 per ounce, driven by ongoing supply shortages and fiscal deficits [10].

Group 1 - Gold prices surged on October 13, with spot gold reaching a high of $4060 per ounce and COMEX gold exceeding $4070 per ounce [1] - As of the report, spot gold was priced at $4046.06 per ounce, while COMEX gold was at $4066.1 per ounce [1] - The London gold price on October 10 was reported at $4017.845 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 53.11% [5] Group 2 - The recent volatility in precious metals markets has seen both gold and silver prices hitting record highs, with silver prices increasing by 73.53% year-to-date [5][6] - Analysts from CITIC Futures indicated that the upward trend in precious metals is supported by the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and liquidity easing [6] - Key factors to monitor include the U.S. government's "shutdown" developments and the release of non-farm payroll and inflation data [6] Group 3 - Major banks, including China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding the increased volatility in precious metals prices [8][10] - These banks recommend that clients manage their positions carefully and stay informed about market changes to mitigate risks [8][10] - The adjustments in risk ratings for various asset management products by banks reflect the overall market volatility and aim to guide investors in making informed decisions [11][12]