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贵属策略报:盈盘扰动短期价格,银突破历史低位
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:32
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-10 价格逻辑: ⽌盈盘扰动短期价格,⽩银突破历史⾼ 位 节后开市⾸⽇,贵⾦属市场出现部分⽌盈盘,⽇内价格⼩幅回落,⽩银正 式突破历史⾼位。美国政府停摆状态维持,两党仍较为僵持,数据真空期 中"没有消息则是好消息"继续演绎。当前⾦银价格尚未出现4⽉的极端 拥挤,后续重点关注美国政府的停摆进展和价格波动率变化,这可能成为 ⾏情的转折驱动。 重点资讯: 1)纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯明确表态,支持在今年内进一步 下调利率,以应对劳动力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。他还表示, 并不认为美国经济处于衰退的边缘。通胀前景不像今年早些时候那么 可怕。劳动力市场疲软将有助于抑制通胀。 节后开市首日,贵金属市场出现部分止盈盘,价格小幅回落,白银正 式突破历史高位。美国政府停摆状态维持,两党仍较为僵持,数据真 空期中"没有消息则是好消息"继续演绎。高市早苗当选自民党总 裁,有望成为日本首位女总裁,其右翼主义的立场增加了亚太地区地 缘冲突的风险,对黄金的配置意愿进一步形成提振。 我们提示四季度贵金属上行逻辑整体顺畅,美联储降息周期伊始, ...
中国期货每日简报-20251010
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 00:38
Investment consulting business qualification:CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/10/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No:F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.:Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform:https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MOFCOM decided to control export of rare earth-related technologies. Futur ...
黄金会涨到什么时候?
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-10-09 12:48
8月底以来,金价一改震荡格局,开启陡峭升势。从金融机构的研报,到社交平台的热搜榜,"金价又创 新高"已成为常驻关键词。一方面,"害怕错过"的市场情绪仍在推高买盘,根据世界黄金协会数据,全 球黄金ETF持仓量已达到2022年9月以来的最高水平,显示投资者对上涨趋势的 押 注;另一方面,实物 黄金价格的接连上调,让普通消费者在购金时更迫切想知道"何时入手更合适"。 就在国庆中秋假期的最后一天,国际金价终于站上了4000美元/盎司的历史性关口。紧接着,北京时间 10月9日凌晨,伦敦金现(现货黄金)再度刷新历史高位,报4059.31美元/盎司,2025年以来涨幅已接 近55%;国内方面,上海黄金交易所(以下简称"上金所")Au99.99当日日间交易最高报918.8元/克,续 创新高。与此同时,10月9日营业后,国内多家金店黄金零售价格已超过1160元/克。 金价的"狂飙"态势让市场对其后续走势充满追问,全球投资者和消费者都在共同关注,黄金会涨到什么 时候? 金价加速上涨 谁在买黄金? "越涨越买"。 世界黄金协会的数据显示,在高金价环境下,今年二季度,全球央行仍净购金166吨,其中波兰央行以 29吨增持量领跑,土耳其 ...
黄金突破4000美元关?,关注波动率和美国政府停摆进展
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:25
中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-9 ⻩⾦突破4000美元关⼝,关注波动率和 美国政府停摆进展 ⾦银的价格波动率⼩幅抬升,但绝对位置仍处于偏低⽔准,价格尚未出现 4⽉的极端拥挤,短期上涨⾏情有望延续,我们分别上调⻩⾦和⽩银的⽬ 标位。后续重点关注两个⽅⾯,⼀是美国政府的停摆进展,以及停摆结束 后⾮农和通胀数据的披露,这可能形成短期降息预期层⾯的扰动。⼆是价 格波动率变化,若后续价格波动出现显著放⼤,会相应带来价格调整⻛险 的放⼤。 重点资讯: 1)美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人,预期增加5.1万人,前值增加 5.4万人。 2)美国9月ISM制造业PMI指数为49.1,预期为49,8月前值为48.7。 新订单指数48.9,预期50,前值51.4。在8月短暂扩张后,新订单指 数再次陷入收缩。就业指数45.3,预期44.3,前值43.8。物价支付指 数61.9,预期62.7,8月前值63.7,支付价格指数已连续三个月下 降。 3) 美国9月ISM非制造业PMI为50,预期51.7,前值52。新订单指数 降至50.4,几乎抹去前月的全部涨幅。就业指数连续第四个月萎缩, 萎缩速度有所放缓。支付价格指数 ...
突破4000美元关?,关注波动率和美国政府停摆进展
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 02:22
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-9 ⻩⾦突破4000美元关⼝,关注波动率和 美国政府停摆进展 ⾦银的价格波动率⼩幅抬升,但绝对位置仍处于偏低⽔准,价格尚未出现 4⽉的极端拥挤,短期上涨⾏情有望延续,我们分别上调⻩⾦和⽩银的⽬ 标位。后续重点关注两个⽅⾯,⼀是美国政府的停摆进展,以及停摆结束 后⾮农和通胀数据的披露,这可能形成短期降息预期层⾯的扰动。⼆是价 格波动率变化,若后续价格波动出现显著放⼤,会相应带来价格调整⻛险 的放⼤。 重点资讯: 1)美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人,预期增加5.1万人,前值增加 5.4万人。 2)美国9月ISM制造业PMI指数为49.1,预期为49,8月前值为48.7。 新订单指数48.9,预期50,前值51.4。在8月短暂扩张后,新订单指 数再次陷入收缩。就业指数45.3,预期44.3,前值43.8。物价支付指 数61.9,预期62.7,8月前值63.7,支付价格指数已连续三个月下 降。 3) 美国9月ISM非制造业PMI为50,预期51.7,前值52。新订单指数 降至50.4,几乎抹去前月的全部涨幅。就业指数连 ...
受美联储降息预期与美债收益率回落推动,??徘徊在3700美元/盎司历
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 08:24
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is hovering near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce due to the expectation of the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut and the decline of US Treasury yields [1][3] - The first interest - rate cut is about to happen, and attention should be paid to the guidance on the subsequent path from the quarterly end interest - rate meeting. There can be a moderate optimism about the subsequent interest - rate cut space at the beginning of the interest - rate cut cycle [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Key Information - The US and China have reached a framework agreement on TikTok's ownership transfer to US control, to be confirmed in a call between US President Trump and Chinese leaders on Friday [2] - The Trump administration is taking actions to weaken China's global port network and place more strategic docks under Western control [2] - The central bank and the General Administration of Customs have optimized the "non - one - batch - one - certificate" policy for gold imports, expanding applicable customs from 10 to 15, extending the license validity period to 9 months and allowing multiple declarations within the validity period, which is beneficial to the gold trade [2] - Chinese leaders proposed a global governance initiative at the "SCO+" meeting, aiming to promote the multipolarization of the international monetary system and improve the global financial governance system [2] b) Price Logic - In the European session on Tuesday, gold hovered near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce. Market bets on the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut continued to suppress the US dollar, driving up non - yielding assets. The market focus is on the Fed's policy meeting this week [3] - US economic data in August showed that retail sales and industrial output both exceeded expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver. Meanwhile, the unexpected decline of Canada's CPI strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the probability of a rate cut this week in the swap market rose to 93% [3] c) Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities includes special indices (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index, PPI Commodity Index) with corresponding increases of +0.62%, +0.79%, +0.67%, and +0.39% respectively on September 16, 2025 [44] - The precious metals index on September 16, 2025, had a daily increase of +1.15%, a 5 - day increase of +1.69%, a 1 - month increase of +9.09%, and a year - to - date increase of +33.31% [45]
贵属策略报:降息预期?撑?价
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 06:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver for gold prices. US inflation and fundamental data are in line with this trend, causing gold prices to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, gold will still benefit from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [1][3]. - Although the continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed the elasticity of silver prices, as the performance of US assets diverges and the market's trading of a soft landing continues to strengthen, silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver. The 2 - year US Treasury bond has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the quarterly FOMC meeting on the subsequent path. The central bank's gold - buying behavior continues, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced, which is favorable for gold allocation. In the long - term, gold benefits from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. - **Silver**: The continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed silver's elasticity. However, as the US recession expectation weakens, the obstacle to silver's elasticity is removed. Silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2 Outlook Next week, focus on the FOMC meeting guidance and US retail data. The weekly range for spot London gold is [3500, 3800], and for spot London silver is [39, 45] [3]. 3.3 Key Information - China and the US delegations are holding talks in Madrid to resolve trade tensions, and the US and China are close to reaching an agreement on TikTok [2]. - A drone invaded Romanian airspace during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing Romania to scramble fighter jets [2]. - The Fed will hold a policy meeting on September 16 - 17. There are uncertainties regarding the attendance list due to a lawsuit to dismiss a Fed governor and a pending Senate approval for a new appointment [2]. 3.4 Index Information - On September 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2239.53, up 0.50%; the commodity 20 index is 2507.34, up 0.37%; the industrial products index is 2254.68, up 0.90% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 15, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.27%, a 5 - day increase of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 7.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.79% [48].
关税担忧反复,?价波动加剧
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 04:53
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are affected by Trump's repeated tariff threats and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding market expectations, with gold prices approaching the $3400 mark [2][3] - The gold market sentiment will turn positive as the trading on the short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the pricing logic of a weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle [5] - Gold has a long - term bullish trend. The slowdown of the US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the long - term bullish foundation [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Putin and Trump may meet next week [4] - China's exports denominated in US dollars in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, reaching a three - month high, and the year - on - year growth rates of imports and exports both accelerated [4] - S&P Global confirmed China's long - term credit rating as A+ and said that China's strong fiscal stimulus measures would maintain economic growth resilience [4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 2 was 226,000, exceeding the expected 221,000 [4] Price Logic - Gold prices rose slightly in the Asian trading session on Thursday but failed to break through the $3400/ounce mark. Trump's new tariff threats reignited market concerns about global trade conflicts, and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding expectations increased short - term safe - haven demand [5] - The expectation of the Fed restarting interest - rate cuts in September supported gold prices and pressured the US dollar, but the positive risk sentiment in global stock markets limited the increase in gold prices [5] Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is [3300, 3500], and for spot London silver is [36, 40] [8] - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change, and the accelerated pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest - rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, amplifying price elasticity [8]
黄金抹平4月涨幅,后续如何抉择
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call on Gold Market Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the gold market, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and macroeconomic factors influencing gold prices. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Volatility in Gold Prices**: April saw significant volatility in gold prices, with a notable drop of over 5% after April 2, primarily due to external risk assets declining rather than changes in gold's intrinsic logic [2][3][4]. 2. **Rebound After Decline**: Following the initial drop, gold prices rebounded, reaching over $3,500, marking a new historical high by late April, attributed to the stabilization of external assets and reduced liquidity risks [3][4]. 3. **Impact of U.S. Economic Data**: The U.S. economic indicators, including lower-than-expected CPI and fiscal expansion, initially suggested a positive outlook, but led to a "triple kill" scenario in the stock and bond markets, impacting gold negatively [4][6]. 4. **Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment**: Positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations on April 22 contributed to a shift in market sentiment, leading to a transition from safe-haven assets to risk assets, further amplifying gold's price adjustments [5][6]. 5. **Future Price Predictions**: The outlook for gold prices remains cautious, with expectations of limited upward or downward drivers in the short term, suggesting a sideways trading pattern [9][11]. 6. **Long-term Investment Logic**: Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term investment logic for gold remains bullish, driven by ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [9][10][15]. 7. **U.S. Trade Deficit and Gold Prices**: The U.S. trade deficit's impact on gold prices is complex, with potential long-term pressures if the deficit is effectively reduced, which could lead to a stronger dollar and lower gold prices [23][24]. 8. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks' strategies for accumulating gold are influenced by the need for currency stability and international trade dynamics, particularly in the context of promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [28][29]. 9. **Market Dynamics**: The performance of gold in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) shows that the Shanghai gold market has been relatively stronger, influenced by local investor sentiment and macroeconomic conditions [36][39]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Context**: The discussion references historical patterns from 2018 regarding U.S.-China trade agreements and their implications for gold prices, highlighting the unpredictable nature of trade negotiations [10][12]. - **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The relationship between inflation, economic growth, and gold prices is emphasized, noting that while inflation may support gold prices, economic growth can have mixed effects depending on the underlying factors [12][13]. - **Investor Behavior**: The behavior of domestic investors in the gold market, particularly in response to macroeconomic signals and price movements, plays a crucial role in shaping market dynamics [38][40]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the gold market, highlighting the interplay between macroeconomic factors, trade negotiations, and investor sentiment.
机构看金市:6月19日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 02:47
Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to pressure precious metals in the short term, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions providing some structural support for gold prices [1][2] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade frictions, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [2] - The recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a temporary spike in gold prices, but the sustainability of this increase is questioned due to the lack of significant physical demand [3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June and signaled a hawkish outlook, with the dot plot indicating two potential rate cuts this year, although seven officials support no cuts [1] - Inflation data continues to fall below expectations, paving the way for potential rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut increasing according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The dollar index has risen significantly, impacting the valuation of precious metals and creating a counterbalance to the geopolitical risks [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is at a critical stage, with negotiations between European nations and Iran facing uncertainty, which may influence gold prices [1] - Analysts from Julius Baer Research note that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict has been muted, attributing initial price increases to speculative trading rather than genuine safe-haven demand [3] - The Gold Forecast highlights that while geopolitical risks can drive short-term price spikes, true safe-haven demand may quickly give way to profit-taking and technical selling [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural factors such as ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [2][3] - The interplay between geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy changes, and evolving trade policies will shape the broader economic landscape and influence precious metal prices [3]