投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-8 关税担忧反复，⾦价波动加剧 特朗普关税威胁反复，初次申请失业⾦⼈数超市场预期，⾦价冲击3 400美元关⼝。 重点资讯： 1) 罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普或在下周举行会面 2) 中国7月美元计价出口同比增长7.2%，为三个月新高。 关税缓和期效应持续，助推中国7月进出口同比增幅双提 速，分别创下一年和三个月新高。 3) 评级机构标普全球周四确认中国的长期信用评级为A+， 并称中国强有力的财政刺激措施将在房地产行业和关税压力 的逆风中保持经济增长的韧性 4) 美国至8月2日当周初请失业金人数 22.6万人，预期22. 1万人，前值由21.8万人修正为21.9万人。 价格逻辑： 金价在周四亚洲交易时段维持小幅上涨，但未能有效突破34 00美元/盎司关口。美国总统特朗普近期接连宣布新的关税 威胁（涉及瑞士39%关税、印度额外关税、日本以及半导体 和药品关税），重新点燃了市场对全球贸易冲突的担忧。 此外，周四晚间公布数据显示8月初美国初次申请失业金人 数超出市场预期，短线避险需求升温推动金价走高。 此前降息预期与美元疲软提 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Market Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the gold market, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and macroeconomic factors influencing gold prices. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Volatility in Gold Prices**: April saw significant volatility in gold prices, with a notable drop of over 5% after April 2, primarily due to external risk assets declining rather than changes in gold's intrinsic logic [2][3][4]. 2. **Rebound After Decline**: Following the initial drop, gold prices rebounded, reaching over $3,500, marking a new historical high by late April, attributed to the stabilization of external assets and reduced liquidity risks [3][4]. 3. **Impact of U.S. Economic Data**: The U.S. economic indicators, including lower-than-expected CPI and fiscal expansion, initially suggested a positive outlook, but led to a "triple kill" scenario in the stock and bond markets, impacting gold negatively [4][6]. 4. **Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment**: Positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations on April 22 contributed to a shift in market sentiment, leading to a transition from safe-haven assets to risk assets, further amplifying gold's price adjustments [5][6]. 5. **Future Price Predictions**: The outlook for gold prices remains cautious, with expectations of limited upward or downward drivers in the short term, suggesting a sideways trading pattern [9][11]. 6. **Long-term Investment Logic**: Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term investment logic for gold remains bullish, driven by ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [9][10][15]. 7. **U.S. Trade Deficit and Gold Prices**: The U.S. trade deficit's impact on gold prices is complex, with potential long-term pressures if the deficit is effectively reduced, which could lead to a stronger dollar and lower gold prices [23][24]. 8. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks' strategies for accumulating gold are influenced by the need for currency stability and international trade dynamics, particularly in the context of promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [28][29]. 9. **Market Dynamics**: The performance of gold in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) shows that the Shanghai gold market has been relatively stronger, influenced by local investor sentiment and macroeconomic conditions [36][39]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Context**: The discussion references historical patterns from 2018 regarding U.S.-China trade agreements and their implications for gold prices, highlighting the unpredictable nature of trade negotiations [10][12]. - **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The relationship between inflation, economic growth, and gold prices is emphasized, noting that while inflation may support gold prices, economic growth can have mixed effects depending on the underlying factors [12][13]. - **Investor Behavior**: The behavior of domestic investors in the gold market, particularly in response to macroeconomic signals and price movements, plays a crucial role in shaping market dynamics [38][40]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the gold market, highlighting the interplay between macroeconomic factors, trade negotiations, and investor sentiment.

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to pressure precious metals in the short term, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions providing some structural support for gold prices [1][2] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade frictions, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [2] - The recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a temporary spike in gold prices, but the sustainability of this increase is questioned due to the lack of significant physical demand [3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June and signaled a hawkish outlook, with the dot plot indicating two potential rate cuts this year, although seven officials support no cuts [1] - Inflation data continues to fall below expectations, paving the way for potential rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut increasing according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The dollar index has risen significantly, impacting the valuation of precious metals and creating a counterbalance to the geopolitical risks [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is at a critical stage, with negotiations between European nations and Iran facing uncertainty, which may influence gold prices [1] - Analysts from Julius Baer Research note that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict has been muted, attributing initial price increases to speculative trading rather than genuine safe-haven demand [3] - The Gold Forecast highlights that while geopolitical risks can drive short-term price spikes, true safe-haven demand may quickly give way to profit-taking and technical selling [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural factors such as ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [2][3] - The interplay between geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy changes, and evolving trade policies will shape the broader economic landscape and influence precious metal prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with recent data indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold investments [1][2][4]. Market Trends - COMEX gold futures reached a near one-month high of $3,476.3 per ounce on June 16 but fell below $3,400 per ounce by June 18, with London spot gold prices also declining to around $3,380 per ounce [2]. - The global gold ETF market saw its first monthly net outflow since November of the previous year, with a 1% decrease in total assets under management to $374 billion and a reduction of 19 tons in total holdings to 3,541 tons [2][4]. Central Bank Actions - Over 90% of central banks surveyed expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level of confidence since the survey began in 2019 [4][5]. - Approximately 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, driven by ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. Predictions and Scenarios - Citibank has lowered its target price for gold, suggesting that in a pessimistic scenario, prices could drop below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026 [4]. - The bank outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a basic scenario with prices stabilizing between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce, an optimistic scenario where prices could exceed $3,500 per ounce due to economic recession and geopolitical tensions, and a pessimistic scenario where prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce if geopolitical risks ease [4]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iran's signal to ease the conflict led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a decline in gold prices due to reduced risk aversion. If the geopolitical conflict ends, the market is expected to return to fundamental drivers. This week, focus on the guidance from the Fed's June FOMC meeting. Although it is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged in June, the release of the quarterly dot - plot and economic inflation guidance still needs attention. The long - term bullish trend of gold remains [1][3]. - In the medium to long term, the bullish trend of gold is maintained due to factors such as the continuation of the weakening US fundamentals in the second half of the year, the Fed still being on the path of interest rate cuts, and the contraction of the US dollar's credit under de - globalization and excessive debt issuance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Key Information - According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials have signaled their desire to end hostilities, resume nuclear - related negotiations, and are willing to return to the negotiating table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. They also conveyed to Israel that controlling violence is in the interests of both sides [2]. - The Fed will hold a monetary policy meeting this week, and the market generally expects it to maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25% - 5.50%. Despite robust economic data and moderate inflation in the US, President Trump has pressured the Fed to cut rates. Most institutions predict that September may be the first window for a rate cut this year [2]. - The US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index was - 16, worse than the expected - 5.5 and the previous value of - 9.2. The manufacturing employment index was 4.7, up from the previous - 5.1; the new orders index was - 14.2, down from the previous 7; the prices received index was 26.6, up from the previous 22.9 [2]. Price Logic - Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell, while silver prices fluctuated at high levels. The signal from Iran to ease the conflict led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a decline in gold prices due to reduced risk aversion. The long - term bullish trend of gold is maintained for three reasons: trade frictions still exist, the US fundamentals are expected to weaken in the second half of the year; the Fed is still on the path of interest rate cuts, and the probability of a rate cut in September has increased; the contraction of the US dollar's credit under de - globalization and excessive debt issuance is the cornerstone of the gold bull market [3]. - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3600], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [34, 38] [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term and maintain a long - term bullish view. Silver follows gold and is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but its elasticity will be suppressed by weak economic data [1][3]. - The upcoming non - farm payroll data on Friday night is more important due to the difference in caliber between ADP employment data and non - farm employment data [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content Key Information - The number of ADP employed people in the US in May increased by 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a revised previous value of 60,000. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in May was 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year, with an expected value of 52.0 and a previous value of 51.6 [2]. - Musk criticized Trump's new cut plan and spending bill, which proposed to cut $9.4 billion in funds, and said it would increase the government deficit to $2.5 trillion [2]. Price Logic - The price of precious metals was volatile during the day and was slightly boosted at night as the US ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing data were below expectations, and the US dollar weakened [3]. - The reasons for the long - term bullish view on gold are: the continuation of the US tariff path, the mid - term stagflation expectation in the US, the Fed's possible delay in interest rate cuts with limited negative impact, and the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price range to watch is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price range to watch is [32, 35] [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its dynamics in relation to macroeconomic factors, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S.-China trade relations and U.S. economic data. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **April Gold Price Adjustment**: The adjustment in gold prices in late April was attributed to the visibility of macro narratives, such as the difficulty of achieving de-dollarization in the short term and positive signals from U.S.-China negotiations. Additionally, despite weak U.S. economic data, the decline in interest rate expectations was delayed, leading to a shift of risk-averse funds towards risk assets [1][4][5]. 2. **Short-term Price Predictions**: In the short term, gold prices are expected to stabilize with limited upward or downward drivers, forming a new platform for sideways trading. The positive factors from trade tensions have been fully priced in, and U.S. economic data remains resilient [6][23]. 3. **Long-term Bullish Outlook**: The long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with the U.S.-China tariff situation not reversing. A 30% tariff has been established, with potential fluctuations of 24% in the future. The negative economic impact of tariffs and their positive influence on gold prices are expected to persist [7][8]. 4. **U.S. Economic Data**: The first quarter GDP showed resilience, driven by private consumption and investment, but trade deficits pose significant negative impacts. The trend of "import grabbing" supports short-term data but is unsustainable in the long run [9]. 5. **Dollar Credit Contraction**: Long-term factors contributing to the contraction of U.S. dollar credit include de-globalization, excessive debt issuance, and the rise of domestic AI. These factors collectively indicate a prolonged contraction cycle for dollar credit [10][11]. 6. **Impact of Trade Relations on Gold**: The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are expected to continue influencing the U.S. economy, with the likelihood of recession increasing if interest rate cuts are delayed. This scenario supports the bullish outlook for gold [8][9]. 7. **Manufacturing Repatriation Challenges**: The U.S. manufacturing repatriation plan aims to reduce trade deficits but faces high costs and effectiveness concerns. Successful implementation could pressure gold prices in the medium to long term, but the plan's feasibility is questionable [14][15]. 8. **Gold Price Sensitivity to Trade Agreements**: If the U.S. reaches tariff reduction agreements with other countries, leading to increased exports and reduced trade deficits, this could exert downward pressure on gold prices. However, the actual impact remains uncertain due to the complexities of trade dependencies [14]. 9. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold as a strategic move against dollar credit contraction and to support internationalization efforts, particularly in the context of the RMB [17][18]. 10. **Market Dynamics Between Different Gold Markets**: Shanghai gold has shown stronger performance compared to New York and London gold, reflecting robust domestic demand and confidence among Chinese investors. The long-term outlook suggests that domestic gold prices may outperform due to the underlying economic conditions [21][22]. Other Important Insights - The volatility in gold prices during April was linked to external risk asset declines, leading to liquidity squeezes, which have historical precedents [3]. - The potential for gold price rebounds exists, but achieving a sustained upward trend is challenging given the current market conditions [13]. - The effectiveness of U.S. manufacturing repatriation is under scrutiny, with historical precedents indicating only marginal improvements during past trade tensions [16]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the intricate relationship between gold prices, macroeconomic indicators, and geopolitical factors, providing a nuanced understanding of the current and future landscape of the gold market.

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in gold prices has sparked discussions about future trends, with prices dropping below $3200 per ounce, marking an over 8% decrease from April highs [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price - The rapid increase in gold prices in early April was driven by escalating U.S. tariffs, leading to a "triple hit" on assets, which highlighted a contraction in dollar credit [2] - Market speculation intensified during this period, accumulating price risks, while subsequent economic data from the U.S. indicated a slowdown, delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions on May 12 boosted market risk appetite, prompting a shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further exacerbating gold's price adjustment [2][6] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of inflation rising alongside economic downturns, creating a stagflation scenario [3] - The ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle are seen as core factors supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [3][5] - The trend of de-globalization and the ongoing expansion of U.S. debt are also contributing to a long-term bull market for gold, as dollar credit continues to contract [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - In April, global gold trading volumes surged, with an average daily trading volume of $441 billion, reflecting a 48% month-over-month increase [4] - Central bank demand remains a critical support factor for gold prices, driven by the diversification of global reserves and the decline in dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [5] - Investment demand for gold is bolstered by insufficient internal growth dynamics in the global economy and the resulting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic instability [5] Group 4: Short-term Investment Strategy - Current sentiment around gold is relatively weak, with potential further declines if prices drop below $3100 per ounce, possibly testing critical support levels around $2950 to $3000 [7] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains bullish, suggesting that recent price adjustments present buying opportunities for investors [7] Group 5: Future Price Projections - Institutions like UBS predict that gold prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $3800 per ounce under favorable conditions [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts supporting a bullish outlook for gold [10]

当地时间4月24日，美股三大股指集体上涨，大型科技股上涨成为重要推手之一。纳斯达克中国金龙指 数迎来四连阳，热门中概股多数上涨。 COMEX黄金期货价格重拾涨势。截至北京时间4月25日5:55，COMEX黄金期货价格涨逾2%，收复3300 美元/盎司。在机构看来，短线黄金有整理需求，但中长期维持多头观点不变，美元信用收缩是长期利 多黄金的核心支撑。 美股大型科技股上涨 当地时间4月24日， 美股三大股指开盘后持续拉升 ，道指收复40000点关口，纳指、标普500指数双双涨 逾2%。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指涨1.23%，纳指涨2.74%，标普500指数涨2.03%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数低开高走 ，截至收盘涨0.68%，日线迎来四连阳。热门中概股多数上涨，小马智 行涨近40%。 图片来源： Wind 国际金价上涨 图片来源：Wind 行业板块及个股方面，美股大型科技股上涨。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨2.82%，英伟达以3.62%的涨 幅领涨。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 45729.08 1252.18 2.82% ...