投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究 |（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-03-04 地缘问题持续扰动市场，铂钯偏强震荡 2026年3⽉2⽇收盘，⼴州期货交易所铂⾦主⼒合约上涨2.06%，报 626.5元/克；钯⾦主⼒合约上涨1.00%，报463.65元/克。 铂观点：地缘问题持续扰动市场，铂价偏强震荡 主要逻辑：美国关税问题和美伊局势持续扰动贵金属市场。根据央视新 闻，美国总统特朗普20日称，将签署行政令，对全球商品加征10%的进口 关税，随后又在社交媒体上表示将税率提升至15%。该行为显示了特朗普 对征收关税的坚定态度，长期来看或推动美元信用进一步收缩。此外，美 伊局势快速升级引发市场避险情绪抬升，进而在短期内提振贵金属价格， 后续冲突进展情况将决定短期铂钯向上弹性，建议对此保持持续关注。长 期来看，美国仍处于降息通道中，特朗普造成的美联储独立性受损和全球 政治经济秩序松动，从而促使美元信用走弱的长期趋势延续，有利于价格 长期弹性的释放。 展望：震荡偏强。基本面韧性叠加美元信用走弱，中长期维持价格震荡偏 强预期。 钯观点：现货持续紧缺，下方支撑较强 主要逻辑：当前钯金供应端不确定性持续： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in precious metal repurchase policies by China Gold and other leading gold retailers due to significant fluctuations in gold prices and increasing market uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Company Actions - China Gold announced the suspension of its precious metal repurchase business during non-trading days starting February 7, 2026, to enhance risk management and operational efficiency [1]. - Other companies, such as Caibai Co., also announced similar adjustments to their repurchase policies, including limits on repurchase amounts during operational hours [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The gold market has experienced notable volatility, with the latest price of gold T+D at 1111 RMB per gram, reflecting a 2.97% increase from the previous trading day, but down 11.47% from a recent high of 1255 RMB per gram [1]. - China Gold's stock price saw significant fluctuations, peaking at 14.85 RMB per share on January 30, 2023, a 77.21% increase from 8.38 RMB per share on January 22, but subsequently fell by 23.1% to 11.42 RMB per share by February 6 [2]. Group 3: Economic Insights - Analysts from CITIC Futures suggest that the current bull market in precious metals is primarily driven by a contraction in dollar credit, indicating a shift in gold's pricing mechanism from interest rate assets to physical currency [4]. - The report highlights that the ongoing rise in debt levels in developed countries and the strengthening trend of de-globalization are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4].

周内责金属整体维持调整走势,白银仍波动剧烈,黄金呈现盘整。据万得数据,2月6日沪银主力收于18799元/千克、跌幅 14. 92%，沪金主力收于1090. 12元/克，跌幅2. 02%。日内伦敦金现最低触及4654美元/盎司，伦敦银现最低触及64美元/盎司。 美股等外围资产持续下跌，对贵金属形成情绪、流动性层面冲击。1月29日受相关科技公司业绩影响，美股出现较大幅度下跌， 当晚即对商品市场产生拖累. 随后"沃什交易"进一步对责金属的过热行情形成修正。本周以来美股再度下跌，数字货币等流动性敏感 的资产也出现大幅下挫，外围市场情绪的持续低迷，对贵金属形成负反馈。值得关注的是，在近半年金银的大幅上涨中，价格和美股走 势的联动性加强,风险偏好的交易上贵金属呈现出接近风险资产的特征。 中美元首通话释放积极信号，贵金属对地缘冲突的敏感度边际下降。据外交部发布，2月4日晚间中美元首通话，特朗普表示" 美方愿与中方加强合作，推动两国关系取得新发展"。万得援引央视新闻报道，美东时间2月5日，美国国务院通过"虚拟驻伊朗德黑兰 使馆"发布安全警告称，伊朗全国范围内持续加强安全管控，局势依然紧张，美方敦促美国公民尽快自行离开伊朗。1 ...

本轮以金银为代表的金属价格的史诗级波动，影响巨大。 金属史诗级波动余波：股期市场被"搅动" 金属价格近日经历史诗级波动，这里面以黄金和白银的价格波动最为典型。 数据显示，伦敦银现价格在短短几个交易日时间里自高位暴跌约40%，而后又一度暴力反弹，今日则再 度跳水；黄金、铂、钯等金属价格也经历类似走势；另外，贵金属的剧烈波动还传导至基本金属市场， 铜、铝、锡等基本金属近期同样"上蹿下跳"，波动加剧。 上述金属价格的剧烈波动直接让一些期货市场投资者感到震撼，一些人直呼"见证历史"。另外，证券时 报记者发现，金属价格的剧烈波动已影响了一些金属期货投资者的持仓意愿。 以沪金期货为例，数据显示，在本轮金价大跌之前，沪金期货合约总持仓量大体保持增长态势。但1月 30日沪金期货各合约均开始大跌，当天总持仓量骤减逾3万手，本周一沪金期货再度暴跌，总持仓量再 度减少约1.48万手，1月30日至目前，沪金期货总持仓量累计已减少逾4.7万手；沪银期货的总持仓量变 动亦非常明显：1月30日单日减少约3.4万手后，2月2日和2月3日再分别减少约0.88万手和6.5万手，1月 30日至目前，沪银期货总持仓量累计已减少逾10万手。 在黄金和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent epic fluctuations in metal prices, particularly gold and silver, have had significant impacts across various markets, including stocks, futures, and funds [1][5]. Price Movements - On February 5, international gold and silver prices dropped sharply, with spot gold falling over 3% and spot silver plummeting more than 17%, dipping below $74 per ounce [1]. - The London silver price fell approximately 40% in just a few trading days, followed by a violent rebound, and then another drop [5]. - Other metals like platinum and palladium also experienced similar price movements, with basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin showing increased volatility [5]. Market Reactions - The fluctuations in metal prices have led to a significant reduction in futures market positions, with the total open interest in Shanghai gold futures dropping by over 47,000 contracts since January 30 [6]. - In the A-share market, financing balances for metal-related stocks have mirrored the volatility in metal prices, with notable fluctuations in stocks like Hunan Silver and Hengbang Shares [7]. Fund Market Impact - The fund market has also reacted to the volatility, with several commodity funds, particularly gold ETFs, experiencing dramatic changes in scale. For instance, 14 gold ETFs collectively shrank by over 60 billion yuan between January 30 and February 2 [10]. - The scale of the Huazhong Gold ETF, which had reached 135.5 billion yuan, saw a reduction of approximately 7.9 billion yuan on January 30 and a further 16.5 billion yuan by February 2 [10]. Future Variables - Current metal prices remain unstable, with further declines observed on February 5, including a drop of over 10% in Shanghai silver futures [12]. - Analysts suggest that the core foundation of the current bull market in precious metals is the contraction of dollar credit, with expectations of a weak dollar providing support for both precious and basic metals [13]. - Future price movements will likely be driven by macroeconomic expectations and supply-side disruptions, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals continued to correct for the second day, with silver experiencing a more significant decline. The previous overheated market cooled down due to factors such as profit - taking by funds, commodity index rebalancing, and increased exchange supervision. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation with limited downside space, while silver has greater short - term volatility risks [1]. - The US economic data has been weakening. The December PMI weakened, and the number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The non - farm payroll data to be released this Friday is a crucial variable [1]. - In the long - term, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of gold and silver prices. The expected economic cycle shift to a mild recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Key Information - In October, the US wholesale sales monthly rate slowed down, and the import volume decreased. The number of Challenger job cuts in December was the lowest since July 2024 [2]. - In November, the Eurozone PPI monthly rate exceeded expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was better than expected and the previous value. In December, consumer confidence and industrial sentiment improved, while economic sentiment weakened [2]. - On January 8th, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the deployment of Western troops and military facilities in Ukraine would be regarded as an intervention threatening security, and they would be considered legitimate combat targets [2]. - On January 8th, Trump announced that he would request Congress to allocate $1.5 trillion for the military budget in the 2027 fiscal year, a more than 50% increase from this year [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: The intraday price declined again. The main reason was the short - term selling pressure caused by the commodity index rebalancing from January 9 - 15, during which the gold allocation ratio would be reduced from 20% to 14.9%. However, factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and bets on Fed rate cuts continued to provide support. In the short - term, four factors should be focused on, and in the quarter from the nomination to the assumption of office of the Fed chairman, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][8]. - **Silver**: The intraday price continued to decline significantly. It was suppressed by multiple factors such as the selling of silver futures due to commodity index rebalancing, increased supervision by domestic and foreign exchanges, and the cooling of speculative sentiment. The short - term volatility risk of silver should be vigilant, and the silver rental rate has fallen from a high level, alleviating the squeeze risk [8]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 1.06%, 1.00%, and 1.19% respectively [50]. - The precious metal index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.39%, a 5 - day increase of 3.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.94% [52].

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals prices have pulled back from high levels, with silver experiencing a larger decline than gold due to profit - taking by some investors and position adjustments before the re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed easing are expected to limit the downside of gold prices. Silver, which has had a large increase previously, faces high short - term volatility risks [1]. - Gold prices dropped nearly 1% during the day. Given geopolitical tensions, Fed easing expectations, and continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, the downside of gold is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the situation after the US raid on Venezuela, the weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and upcoming economic data [5]. - International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. Along with factors similar to those of gold, attention should also be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US economic data: In December, the ADP employment was 41,000 (expected 47,000, previous - 29,000), the JOLTs job openings in November were 7.146 million (expected 7.6 million, previous 7.449 million), the December ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (expected 52.3, previous 52.6), the October factory order monthly rate was - 1.3% (expected - 1.2%, previous 0.2%), and the October durable goods order monthly rate final value was - 2.2% (in line with expectations and previous value) [2]. - Chinese central bank's gold purchase: As of December 2025, the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, with the gold reserve reaching 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from November. The foreign exchange reserve was $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion from November, rising for the 5th consecutive month [2]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment: Starting from January 9, 2026, the flat - today trading fee of the silver futures AG2604 contract will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount. The trading margin ratio, daily price limit, and trading limit of some silver futures contracts will also be adjusted [3]. - Geopolitical event: On January 6, the US White House Press Secretary said that President Trump and his team are discussing "a series of options" to obtain Greenland, including "using the US military" [3]. Price Logic - Gold: The decline in gold prices during the day was nearly 1%. Given the weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the central bank, geopolitical tensions, and Fed easing expectations, the downside of gold prices is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls report on Friday [5]. - Silver: International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. In addition to factors similar to those of gold, attention should be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. Index Information - Special Index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [48]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on January 7, 2026, was 4030.94, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a 5 - day increase of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 14.46%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.40% [49].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - Precious metals continued their strong performance during the day, with silver surging significantly and Shanghai gold returning above 1,000 yuan. The weakening US manufacturing PMI in December intensified economic concerns and strengthened the safe - haven support. It is expected that gold will maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, while the volatility risk of silver is increasing, and attention should be paid to position risks [1]. - In the short term, gold and silver are affected by geopolitical developments, the adjustment of gold and silver weights in the Bloomberg Commodity Index on January 8, the upcoming US non - farm payroll report on Friday, and the nomination of the new Fed chairman. For silver, the results of the 232 report survey in mid - January also need to be noted [1]. - In the long - term, the contraction of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of gold and silver. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the Fed chairman in the first quarter may be the time when the Fed's stance is the most dovish, and the trading expectation of loose liquidity is smooth, and gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The expectation of the economic cycle shifting to a mild recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Logic - **Gold**: The international gold price first declined and then rose during the day, once breaking through $4,500 per ounce, and Shanghai gold returned above 1,000 yuan. Short - term gold prices may maintain a strong trend, supported by continuous geopolitical tensions and concerns about the slowdown of US economic growth. The newly released US ISM manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 47.9, the lowest since October 2024, and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, strengthening the market's concerns about economic growth slowdown. Four key factors should be focused on in the short term: the development of the situation after the US raid on Venezuela; the reduction of gold and silver weights in the Bloomberg Commodity Index starting from January 8; the potential "sell - on - news" risk after the confirmation of the new Fed chairman nomination; and the upcoming December non - farm and inflation data's guidance on the Fed's interest - rate cut path in 2026. In the long - term, the contraction of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of gold, and it is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the first quarter [3][6]. - **Silver**: Silver continued to rise during the day, once reaching $80 per ounce. The short - term volatility risk of silver has increased, and position risks need to be vigilant. The short - term drivers of silver are similar to those of gold. In addition, the results of the silver survey in the US 232 report in mid - January should be noted, as the expectation of silver tariffs may be the key factor for the change in the subsequent spot circulation. Currently, there is still a structural shortage of silver spot, and the silver lease rate, although declining, remains high, and the squeeze risk has not been completely eliminated. In the long - term, the contraction of the US dollar credit also supports the upward trend of silver, and the expectation of economic recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [6]. Key Information - The final values of the US S&P Global Services PMI and Composite PMI in December were both lower than the previous values. The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in December was 52.5 (expected and previous values were both 52.9), and the final value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in December was 52.7 (previous value was 53) [2]. - The final values of the Eurozone Services PMI and Composite PMI in December were both lower than the expected and previous values. The final value of the Eurozone Services PMI in December was 52.4 (expected and previous values were both 52.6), and the final value of the Eurozone Composite PMI in December was 51.5 (expected and previous values were both 51.9) [2]. - On January 5, the Swiss Federal Council announced the freezing of all assets of Nicolas Maduro and related personnel in Switzerland, with an immediate and a validity period of 4 years [2]. - On January 5, Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded "not guilty" to the US "accusations" during a court hearing in New York [2]. - On January 6, the 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held, emphasizing strengthened supervision of the inter - bank bond market, money market, foreign exchange market, bill market, gold market, and related derivatives [2]. - Guotou Ruixin Fund Management Co., Ltd. announced on January 6 that the fund will be suspended from trading from the opening on January 7, 2026, until 10:30, and resume trading at 10:30 on the same day. If the premium rate of the fund's secondary - market trading price on January 7, 2026, does not effectively decline, the fund has the right to apply to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for intraday temporary suspension or extended suspension to alert the market of risks [2]. Index Information - **Characteristic Index**: The Commodity Index was 2387.24, up 2.43%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2730.32, up 2.47%; the Industrial Products Index was 2317.00, up 2.19%; the PPI Commodity Index was 1458.90, up 3.45% [48]. - **Sector Index**: The Precious Metals Index on January 6, 2026, was 4058.30, with a daily increase of 6.12%, a 5 - day increase of 2.00%, a 1 - month increase of 15.09%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.12% [49].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous weakening of US manufacturing PMI data, precious metals prices oscillated upward on the day. Short - term gold is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, while silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [1]. - In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of both gold and silver. The expectation of a mild economic recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The employment index was 44.9, and the new orders index was 47.7 [2]. - The US launched a military operation against Venezuela on January 3, capturing President Maduro. Venezuela established a committee for Maduro's release [2]. - The air forces of the UK and France carried out a joint air strike on a suspected underground weapons depot of the "Islamic State" in Syria on January 3 [2]. - Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India on January 4 if India does not meet US requirements to curb oil purchases from Russia [2]. - On January 5, the on - the - spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 6.977, hitting a new high since mid - May 2023 [3]. Price Logic - **Gold**: Driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions and weak US manufacturing PMI data, gold prices oscillated upward. Short - term factors to focus on include the situation in Venezuela after the US raid, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starting on January 8, the possible "sell - the - fact" risk after the Fed chair nomination, and important US macro data this week. In the annual outlook, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][7]. - **Silver**: Silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's. However, attention should be paid to the results of the silver survey in the US 232 report in mid - January. The risk of short - term volatility may increase. In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports silver, and the expectation of economic recovery gives it greater upward elasticity [8]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2330.50 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2664.63 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2267.44 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1410.29 (+0.00%) [50]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on January 5, 2026, was 3824.25, with a daily increase of 0.00%, a 5 - day decline of 4.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [51].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant volatility and upward trend in silver prices throughout 2025, with a notable increase of 147.8%, surpassing the 64.6% growth of gold during the same period [3][4] - In December 2025, silver prices broke through key psychological levels of $60, $70, and $80 per ounce, reaching a peak of $83.971 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline [1][3] - Factors supporting the rise in silver prices include the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, changes in the credibility of the US dollar, and global geopolitical risks, alongside increasing demand from sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and electronics [3][4] Group 2 - Peter Krauth from SilverStockInvestor suggests that historical analysis of the gold-silver ratio indicates potential for significant further increases in silver prices, particularly due to supply constraints expected in 2026 [4] - A report from CITIC Futures indicates that the narrative of shrinking dollar credit will continue to dominate the gold-silver bull market trend, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the global economy benefiting cyclical assets [4] - The silver market is anticipated to experience a release of upward price elasticity as the gold-silver ratio may have room to decline [4]