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东方汇理资管中期展望:建议减配美债 增持欧亚资产
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 08:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the high uncertainty in the U.S. policy environment and fiscal path will dominate global economic and market trends over the next 12 months, with geopolitical risks and high debt levels exacerbating market vulnerabilities [1] - Major economies are showing resilience, but their growth paths are diverging, with the U.S. economy expected to slow down while Europe is projected to achieve moderate growth [1] - The report forecasts global economic growth to slow down, with estimates of 2.9% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026, while developed markets are expected to grow at approximately 1.3% and emerging markets at 3.9% over the next two years [1] Group 2 - In fixed income investments, due to increased interest rate volatility, a steepening yield curve is anticipated, leading to a preference for flexible strategies and diversification into global markets outside the U.S., particularly European and emerging market government bonds [2] - The company is optimistic about global equities, focusing on reasonably valued and profit-stable companies, while cautiously selecting sectors through major investment themes such as European defense and infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and U.S. deregulation [2] - The current investment strategy emphasizes risk diversification, reducing reliance on U.S. Treasuries, and shifting towards European and emerging market bonds due to high debt levels and rising inflation expectations [2] Group 3 - Overall, while policy uncertainty presents challenges for the global economy and markets, the company identifies investment opportunities related to different asset prices, noting that major economies and companies have shown strong resilience despite the uncertain and weak growth outlook [3] - The outlook for the global credit market remains optimistic, with expectations that corporate earnings will not fall into recession [3]