始出现紧张。 从2023Q3国债供给恐慌的复盘来看,今年三季度如果 美债收益率因为国债供给增加、流动性收紧等因素出现 快速走高,可能成为倒逼美联储加速宽松的诱因,届时 可能进一步明确美联储在9月重启降息以对冲利率走高 对经济的冲击、同时美联储可能退出量化紧缩。 2025Q3财政部计划再融资规模1.007万亿美元 7.50 7.00 1.50 1 00 0.50 nt.ill.hillil. (0.50) 2018-09 2019-03 2017-09 2018-03 2019-09 2020-03 60 Too 012-09 014-05 015-03 2016-09 2017-03 023-03 023-09 013-03 013-09 014-03 2015-09 2016-03 2024-03 2024-09 011-09 012-03 025-03 025-09 ■财政部实际融资金额(2025Q2-Q3为预测值,万亿美元) Q3中长期国债净发行4700亿美元,短期国债净发行5370亿美元 0.80 3.00 7 40 0.60 0.40 0.20 023-12 020-12 021-09 023-03 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which rose approximately 2 basis points to 4.23% as of the New York market close [1] - The 10-year Treasury auction on August 6 saw a weak performance, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.35, the lowest since August 2024, and below the recent average of 2.58 [2] - The indirect bid ratio, reflecting foreign demand, fell to 64.2%, the lowest since January, while the direct bid ratio from domestic investors dropped to 19.6%, the lowest since April [2] Group 2 - The auction's results revealed a tail risk for the first time in six months, indicating a weak issuance environment, with both domestic and foreign demand declining [2] - Following the auction results, U.S. Treasuries experienced depreciation, as noted by fixed income strategists from Royal Bank of Canada [2] - The overall sentiment in the market was tense, particularly after a disappointing 3-year Treasury auction, which heightened concerns about the 10-year auction's performance [2]