今年以来，全球资产价格正经历一轮重要调整：10 年期美国国债收益率较年内高点回落超 50 个基点， 美元指数（DXY）较高点下跌超 10%。不过在夏季行情中，这两大资产的下行势头均遇阻。 摩根士丹利指出，这一利率低谷仍有进一步下行空间：一方面，当前水平高于 2025 年 4 月的 2.87% 和 2024 年 9 月的 2.69%；另一方面，美联储经济学家预计最终联邦基金利率可能降至 2.625%（而非市场 当前定价的 3%），核心原因是美国移民政策收紧将放缓劳动力市场增长，进而压低潜在经济增速与均 衡利率（r*）。 美债收益率与联邦基金利率的联动关系将持续主导债市行情。报告数据显示，二者在 2025 年 4 月短暂 偏离后已重新同步。 （市场隐含联邦基金利率低谷与 10 年期美债收益率） 摩根士丹利在最新全球宏观策略报告《At the Edge of Hot Summer, At the Threshold of a Larger Fall》中指 出，随着美联储降息窗口逐步临近，今年秋季美债收益率与美元指数有望双双创下年内新低，为投资者 提供明确的布局方向。 一、宏观主线：美联储降息成核心驱动力，美债收益率 ...

今年以来，全球资产价格正经历一轮重要调整：10年期美国国债收益率较年内高点回落超50个基点，美 元指数(DXY)较高点下跌超 10%。不过在夏季行情中，这两大资产的下行势头均遇阻。 摩根士丹利在最新全球宏观策略报告《At the Edge of Hot Summer, At the Threshold of a Larger Fall》中指 出，随着美联储降息窗口逐步临近，今年秋季美债收益率与美元指数有望双双创下年内新低，为投资者 提供明确的布局方向。 一、宏观主线：美联储降息成核心驱动力，美债收益率或跌破4% 美联储政策转向是下半年全球资产定价的核心逻辑。 在今年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放明确鸽派信号，称"当前政策处于限制性区 间，经济前景与风险平衡可能需要调整政策立场"，直接推动市场隐含的联邦基金利率低谷跌破3%(目 前为2.94%)。 摩根士丹利指出，这一利率低谷仍有进一步下行空间：一方面，当前水平高于2025年4月的2.87%和 2024年9月的2.69%；另一方面，美联储经济学家预计最终联邦基金利率可能降至2.625%(而非市场当前 定价的3%)，核心原因是美国移民政策收紧将放缓 ...

来源:金融界AI电报 DZ Bank分析师Birgit Henseler和Christian Reicherter在一份报告中说，10年期美国国债与德国国债的收益 率差最近有所收窄，而两年期至10年期美国国债和德国国债的收益率曲线都有所变陡。分析师表示，在 德国，收益率曲线尤其趋陡，原因是在经历了多年的低迷之后，人们对经济前景的信心日益增强。与此 同时，在美国，市场对美联储降息的预期更多地推动了这一动态。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，"债券之王"、太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)联合创始人比尔·格罗斯表示，实际联邦 基金利率可能在2027年中期触底。他还表示，在杰克逊霍尔会议之后，对10年期美国国债持适度看跌态 度。 他表示："如果是这样，那么10年期美国国债收益率达到4%是有可能的。不过，考虑到未来数万亿美元 的供应，4%的收益率实在难以想象。" 他告诉投资者要保持"适度看跌"的态度，预计未来几个月美国10年期国债收益率将在4.15%至4.45%之 间波动。他还表示，目前的收益率"并不便宜，尤其是在扣除税款后"。10年期美国国债收益率目前约为 4.3%。 今年迄今，10年期美国国债收益率已下跌6.3%，但与一年前相比则上涨了13.1%。 他在X平台上发布文章称，杰克逊霍尔会议之后的利率市场走势显示，联邦基金利率将在大约两年后跌 至3%的底部。 ...

花旗策略师Jason Williams在一份报告中说，花旗略微更新了对美国国债年底收益率水平的部分预测， 但对长期以来对10年期国债收益率的预测很有信心。他说，该机构仍预计10年期美国国债收益率年底将 达到4.10%的水平，与去年以来的预测保持一致。然而，花旗适度更新了其他基准点，以更好地符合其 对2026年更陡峭的曲线和更低的政策利率预期的看法。花旗对两年期美国国债收益率的新基本预测为 3.50%；五年期国债收益率为3.65%，30年期国债收益率为4.70%。 ...

财经金融博客Zerohedge评论称，在经历了昨天糟糕的3年期美债拍卖之后，市场对今天的10年期美债拍 卖高度紧张。而事实证明，他们的担忧是有道理的：10年期拍卖表现非常差。 新华财经北京8月7日电美国国债收益率周三（8月6日）延续反弹，盘中公布的10年期美债招标结果弱于 预期，刺激收益率短线拉升。截至纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率涨约2个基点，报4.23%。超长端涨幅 达4个基点。 短端收益率有所回落，2年期美债收益率跌1个基点，报3.71%，3至5年期美债收益率也出现小幅下跌。 美国财政部6日招标发行420亿美元10年期国债，中标利率为4.255%，为8个月新低，但比预发行利率高 1.1个基点，是2月以来首次出现尾部利差。投标倍数从前次的2.61降至2.35，为2024年8月以来最低，也 低于近期均值2.58。 衡量海外需求的间接认购比例为64.2%，低于上月的65.4%，为1月以来最低；衡量美国国内需求的直接 认购比例为19.6%，为4月以来最低；一级交易商本轮获配比例为16.2%，是2024年8月以来最高水平。 近6个月首次出现的尾部利差、低迷的投标倍数，以及国内外需求双双下降、一级交易商被迫接盘，均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden spike in U.S. Treasury yields during the New York trading session has sparked discussions among industry professionals regarding its causes, with theories ranging from a trading error to preemptive rate-locking operations related to corporate bond issuances [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On the night before, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond surged from 4.225% to 4.282% within five minutes, marking a 6 basis point increase in a low-volatility environment [4]. - The spike in yields was attributed to a potential "fat finger" error in the futures market, where a trader may have mistakenly sold 80,000 contracts instead of the intended 8,000, leading to significant market disruption [4][5]. - The erroneous sale of 80,000 contracts is estimated to represent a transaction worth between $8 billion and $10 billion, which is substantial even in the context of the $27 trillion U.S. Treasury market [5]. Group 2: Corporate Bond Issuance Impact - Some analysts suggest that the yield increase may have been influenced by market participants engaging in rate-locking operations ahead of corporate bond issuances, which typically involve selling Treasuries or futures to hedge borrowing costs [6]. - The yield spike coincided with a $42 billion auction of 10-year Treasuries, which ultimately showed weak demand, as evidenced by a bid-to-cover ratio dropping from 2.61 to 2.35, the lowest since August 2024 [6]. - The auction's awarded yield of 4.255% was the highest since December of the previous year, indicating a lack of buyer interest potentially exacerbated by the earlier market volatility [6]. Group 3: Trading Environment - The trading conditions on the day of the yield spike were characterized by typical August market traits, including low trading volumes and heightened sensitivity to sell-offs [7]. - The simultaneous movements in Treasury yields and the probability of Kevin Walsh becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair on prediction platforms suggest a complex interplay of market sentiments, although no direct correlation has been established [10].

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $42 billion in 10-year bonds with a winning yield of 4.255%, lower than the 4.362% from the July auction [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.35, the lowest since August 2024, indicating weak demand [1] - Indirect bids, reflecting foreign demand, dropped to 64.2%, the lowest since January this year, while direct bids from domestic investors fell to 19.6%, the lowest since April [1] - The allocation to primary dealers increased to 16.2%, the highest since August 2024, suggesting that primary dealers are filling the demand gap [1] - The auction results were deemed "unexpectedly poor," confirming market concerns about weak demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from its historical low of 0.51% on August 4, 2020, to nearly 400 basis points higher, marking the worst rolling five-year total return in recorded history for U.S. Treasuries [1][4]. Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached an unprecedented low of 0.51% on August 4, 2020, which is the lowest since records began in 1790 [1]. - Since that low point, the yield has increased significantly, leading to a decline in bond prices due to the inverse relationship between yield and price [1]. - The rolling five-year nominal total return for 10-year U.S. Treasuries has only seen a few instances of negative returns in the past 230 years, with the current period being one of the worst [4][5]. Group 2 - The only periods with worse real returns (nominal returns adjusted for inflation) than the past five years were the 1790s, post-World War I, and the five years leading up to 1981 [5][6]. - The 1981-1986 period saw the second-best five-year rolling real return for 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with an annual return of approximately 20% [7]. - Current yields are around 4.25%, which is close to the long-term average, making it unlikely to replicate the historical performance seen in the early 1980s [7]. Group 3 - The past five years have been characterized by a correction of long-term overvaluation in the Treasury market, with current prices appearing closer to fair value [8]. - Despite the potential for positive real returns, future U.S. inflation rates may remain above the target level of 2%, suggesting that actual annual returns for 10-year Treasuries may struggle to exceed 1% [8].

Core Insights - The data presents a comprehensive overview of various asset classes' performance from 2021 to 2025, highlighting significant fluctuations in returns across commodities, equities, bonds, and currencies [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Gold showed a notable increase of 27.54% in Q2 2025, contrasting with a decline of 2.17% in Q1 2025 [1] - Oil prices experienced a significant rise of 23.18% in Q2 2025, following a substantial increase of 33.44% in Q1 2025 [1] Group 2: Equity Indices - The S&P 500 index recorded a return of 49.06% in Q2 2025, a slight decrease from 47.97% in Q1 2025 [1] - The NASDAQ index also showed strong performance with a return of 50.23% in Q2 2025, down from 52.10% in Q1 2025 [1] Group 3: Bond and Currency Performance - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield saw a significant drop of 20.70% in Q2 2025, following a decline of 42.06% in Q1 2025 [1] - The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a modest increase of 1.97% in Q2 2025, contrasting with a decline of 20.81% in Q1 2025 [1] Group 4: Yearly Trends - In 2023, commodities like gold and oil had returns of 8.90% and 5.36% respectively, while equity indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ had returns of 17.62% and 19.91% [1] - The year 2022 saw a remarkable performance in equities, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ achieving returns of 57.78% and 60.57% respectively [1]