受美国消费者数据低于预期，以及美联储潜在"鸽派"主席人选影响，市场降息预期升温，推动全球股市走强，美元走软。与此同时，俄乌停火协 议的不确定性再度引发避险需求，黄金获支撑上涨。 。受加息预期推动，日本10年期国债收益率升至1.815%。尽管日本首相表示准备采取"必要"的外汇行动，日元仍疲软，日元兑美元走弱至 156.39。 美股指期货集体上涨，标普500期货涨0.36%，纳斯达克100期货涨超0.5%，道琼斯期货涨超0.2% 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.6%，德国DAX指数涨0.55%，英国富时100指数涨0.2%，法国CAC 40指数涨0.6% 日经225指数收盘涨1.8%，报49559.07点，日本东证指数收涨2%，报3355.50点，韩国首尔综指收盘涨2.7%，报3960.87点 10年期美国国债收益率上升2个基点至4.01%，日本10年期国债收益率升至1.815% 美元指数跌近0.2%，报99.73% 现货黄金上涨0.5%，至每盎司4151.21美元，现货白银涨0.89%至51.92美元/盎司，布伦特原油涨0.5%至62.1美元/桶 比特币上涨0.7%，至87647.35美元 11月26日，美股指期货 ...

据全球资产管理公司Nuveen称，美国国债长端收益率料将不会跟随美联储的政策利率走低。该公司在 其第四季度全球展望中表示："我们预测10年期美国国债收益率今明两年将维持在当前水平附近。"该公 司认为，财政背景是收益率曲线趋陡的主要驱动因素。该公司称，由于赤字持续高企，预计未来十年美 国债务水平将增加约GDP的20%。该公司补充称，这种不断恶化的财政环境意味着，仅财政压力一项就 给10年期国债收益率带来约75个基点的上行空间，几乎完全抵消了美联储降息带来的任何下行压力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

而在短短几天内，市场对美联储的利率预期发生了戏剧性逆转。 与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约持仓量在过去三个交易日飙升，其中1月合约上周连续两个 交易日成交量创下历史新高。 （绿线美联储12月降息概率vs蓝线明年1月降息概率） 市场定价显示，交易员们认为下个月降息25个基点的可能性已高达约80%，而就在几天前，这一概率还仅为30%。 给财经人的礼物！ 金融圈"明星"日历 美联储官员"鸽声"推动市场预期逆转 投资者正大举押注美联储将在下月会议上再次降息。 周二，10年期美国国债收益率一个月来首次盘中跌破4%，摩根大通本周的客户调查显示，投资者的美债净多头头寸已升至约十五年来的最高水平。 （10年期美债收益率自鲍威尔10月份发表鹰派言论以来首次跌破4.00%） 华尔街见闻提及，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特成为下任美联储主席热门人选的消息，提振了市场对未来一年利率走低的预期。 在过去两年多的20次美联储会议中，仅有三次交易员在如此接近政策决定时未完全消化结果。 就在几天前，市场对12月降息的押注概率仅为30%，但形势在短短几日内急剧逆转。 法国兴业银行策略师Rajappa表示， 尽管一些更担忧通胀的官员提出反对，但 ...

投资者正大举押注美联储将在下月会议上再次降息。 周二，10年期美国国债收益率一个月来首次盘中跌破4%，摩根大通本周的客户调查显示，投资者的美债净多头头寸已升至约十五年来的最高水 平。 （10年期美债收益率自鲍威尔10月份发表鹰派言论以来首次跌破4.00%） 而在短短几天内，市场对美联储的利率预期发生了戏剧性逆转。与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约持仓量在过去三个交易日飙升，其中1月合约 上周连续两个交易日成交量创下历史新高。 市场定价显示，交易员们认为下个月降息25个基点的可能性已高达约80%，而就在几天前，这一概率还仅为30%。 （绿线美联储12月降息概率vs蓝线明年1月降息概率） 美联储官员"鸽声"推动市场预期逆转 就在几天前，市场对12月降息的押注概率仅为30%，但形势在短短几日内急剧逆转。 法国兴业银行策略师Rajappa表示，尽管一些更担忧通胀的官员提出反对，但美联储主席鲍威尔及其盟友"支持降息"。她认为： 鉴于包括美国劳动力市场在内的近期经济数据疲软，鲍威尔将能够说服FOMC其他成员。 Brandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理Tracy Chen指出： ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月17日｜摩根士丹利策略师在报告中表示，预计2026年上半年美国国债将出现前置式反弹，美 联储可能实施50个基点的降息，这将推动10年期美国国债收益率在明年年中前降至3.75%，随后在第四 季度回升至4.05%。全年来看，10年期国债收益率预计将维持区间波动。 ...

格隆汇11月13日｜美国国债价格大致稳定，但波动率指标显示未来几天可能出现剧烈波动，此前美国走 出了史上最长的政府停摆。10年期美国国债收益率保持坚挺，周四报4.08%，而根据与政策会议日期挂 钩的掉期数据显示，货币市场对下个月美联储降息25个基点的预期大致存在分歧。然而，衡量债券市场 波动性的ICE BofA MOVE Index在最近触及四年低点后，已跳升至一个月来的最高水平，这表明政府即 将发布的大量经济数据可能会刺激市场采取行动。这个价值30万亿美元的市场中的投资者，一直在等待 政府经济报告恢复公布，以获取有关美联储在今年最后一次会议上将利率带向何方的线索。荷兰国际集 团高级欧洲利率策略师 Michiel Tukker说，鉴于市场尚未完全确定美联储的下一步行动，任何新的通胀 和就业数据都可能推动曲线的前端波动。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has officially ended, leading to a rally in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 futures and European stock futures approaching historical highs [1][2] - Investors are now focused on the uncertainty surrounding delayed economic data due to the shutdown, which could impact the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions [2][7] - Gold prices have risen for five consecutive days, reaching over $4220 per ounce, as expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve grow [3][6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures have recovered losses, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up by 0.3% and the S&P 500 futures up by 0.2% [6] - European and Asian stock markets also showed positive movements, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures up by 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising by 0.4% [6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.09%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [6] Economic Data Concerns - The prolonged government shutdown has created a significant "data vacuum," complicating economic forecasts for investors and policymakers [2] - Key economic indicators, including employment data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, are delayed, raising concerns about the accuracy of market pricing [2] - Analysts warn that political risks remain, with potential for another funding impasse in February [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - There is a growing expectation that the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in December, contingent on the release of economic data [7] - Some Federal Reserve officials express caution, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins advocating for maintaining current interest rates due to strong economic growth [7] Trade Developments - Positive signals have emerged regarding trade negotiations, with the EU preparing to propose a plan to implement a trade agreement with the U.S. [8] - The Japanese yen is under pressure, with concerns about the new government's ability to support its currency through intervention [8] Commodity Market Movements - Gold prices have reached their highest level since October 21, reflecting investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty [3][6] - Oil prices have stabilized after experiencing significant declines, with WTI prices around $58 per barrel [8]

Core Viewpoint - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,433 billion, marking a $47 billion increase from September, the highest level since December 2015, with reserves stabilizing above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves in October was influenced by major economies' monetary policies, macroeconomic data, and a rising U.S. dollar index, which saw a 1.95% increase over the month [2][3]. - The rise in global financial asset prices, supported by a strong performance in global stock and bond markets, contributed to the increase in China's foreign exchange reserves [3]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of October, China's official gold reserves stood at 7.409 million ounces, with a monthly increase of 30,000 ounces, the lowest growth rate since the resumption of gold purchases in November 2024 [4]. - The People's Bank of China has been gradually increasing gold reserves since March, with monthly increments below 100,000 ounces, signaling a strategy to optimize international reserves [4][5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for foreign exchange reserves remains stable due to China's strong economic fundamentals, resilience, and potential for growth, which are expected to support the stability of reserves [3]. - In the short term, gold demand may slow down due to easing geopolitical risks and trade tensions, while long-term demand is expected to remain strong as central banks continue to diversify their reserves [5].

Core Insights - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,433 billion, marking an increase of $47 billion from September, the highest level since December 2015 [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index and overall global financial asset prices [1][5] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with the latest figure at 7,409 million ounces, reflecting a modest increase of 3,000 ounces [1][9] Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months [1] - The dollar index rose by approximately 1.95% in the past month, while major currencies like the euro, yen, and pound depreciated against the dollar [5] - The strengthening of the dollar is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6] Asset Prices and Market Conditions - Global stock and bond markets showed strength in October, supporting the increase in China's foreign exchange reserves [6] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by about 5 basis points due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, leading to increased liquidity in the market [6] - Major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nikkei, experienced gains during this period [6] Gold Reserves - The increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China is seen as a strategy to optimize international reserves amid fluctuating gold prices [9][10] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have seen them rise above $4,000 per ounce before retreating below $3,900 [10] - Analysts suggest that the central bank's gold purchases may slow down due to various market factors, but the long-term demand for gold remains strong [10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data is critical, as a higher-than-expected reading could disrupt the prevailing market consensus on interest rate cuts and negatively impact the recent strong rebound in U.S. stock and bond markets since October [1][2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time in six months, reaching a low of 3.9%, indicating a significant rebound in Treasury prices despite the government shutdown delaying key economic data [1]. - The overall return of U.S. Treasuries in October is approximately 1.3%, potentially marking the best monthly performance since February, driven by safe-haven buying and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5]. - If the September CPI data exceeds expectations, it could lead to a sharp rise in Treasury yields, negatively affecting global stock and bond markets [3][10]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Market Reactions - Economists predict that the overall CPI for September will show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%, both indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [8]. - There is a prevailing concern that strong inflation data could undermine the market's confidence in further rate cuts, as indicated by various market strategists [10][11]. - The market is currently pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but a significant rise in inflation could jeopardize these expectations [9]. Group 3: Impact on Equity Markets - The strong performance of major tech companies and the AI sector has driven a historic investment surge in U.S. equities, with indices like the S&P 500 and MSCI Global Index reaching new highs [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a critical component in equity valuation models, and a sustained decline below 4% could support a continued bull market in stocks, particularly in technology [3][4]. - If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could lead to a reassessment of risk asset valuations, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, which are currently at historical highs [4][10].