•瑞典北欧斯安银行策略师表示，货币市场目前定价美联储到2026年底将降息超过100个基点，考虑到通 胀风险，这可能过于激进。如果美联储确实满足这些市场预期，可能会为明年10年期美国国债收益率跌 至3.80%铺平道路。由于财政政策不太可能成为关键驱动因素，10年期美国国债收益率的上行风险主要 源于美联储提供的降息幅度少于市场目前的预期。 转自：新华财经 •瑞典北欧斯安银行： 美联储降息预期或过于激进 •法国兴业银行： 法德国债息差或企稳，政治风险仍支持防御性仓位 •花旗银行：美政府停摆掩盖风险，但美欧政策分化利好欧元兑美元 【机构分析】 •花旗认为，美国联邦政府停摆不仅可能造成持久经济损害，其导致的关键数据缺失还将掩盖真实风 险，延缓市场反应。而从长期看，一旦法国政治动荡平息，叠加美国利率面临下行压力，欧元兑美元的 前景有望迎来显著改善。尽管花旗意外指数显示欧洲经济数据普遍低于预期，但市场对欧洲央行利率路 径的定价仍显坚挺，OIS合约强烈暗示其宽松周期已结束。相比之下，市场预计美联储未来一年将降息 100个基点，凸显美欧货币政策前景的分化。 •潘森宏观分析师指出，受关税不确定性冲击出口及工业生产持续下滑影响，德 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown is influencing mortgage rates, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield potentially leading to lower mortgage rates, despite various market factors at play [1][4]. Impact of Government Shutdown on Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in tandem with mortgage rates, has been declining, suggesting that mortgage rates may also decrease [1]. - Mortgage rates have been falling since July but have recently seen slight increases due to aggressive lender actions rather than market movements [2]. - A government shutdown can lead to a drop in mortgage rates by approximately 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points, depending on the situation [4]. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The shutdown may limit access to key economic data, which could shape investor sentiment and further influence mortgage rates [3]. - The ADP report indicating 32,000 job losses in September raises concerns about a weakening job market, especially with the absence of BLS job market numbers due to the shutdown [6]. - The bond market is currently fluctuating between concerns over the job market and inflation, both of which impact mortgage rates in different directions [8]. Predictions and Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that mortgage rates may continue to drift downward after the government shutdown, although various factors could affect this trend [7]. - The housing market is already under pressure from high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, and the uncertainty introduced by the shutdown may further discourage prospective buyers [7][8].

以下文章来源于华尔街见闻 ，作者见闻君 周三，10 年期美国国债收益率一度升至 4.73%，并逼近 2023 年 10 月创下的 5% 峰值，随后回落。20年期美债收益率已经率先突破5%，30年期美 债收益率达到4.96%。 华尔街见闻 . 华尔街见闻App是中国领先的金融信息和商业资讯提供商，为用户甄选国内和全球重要资讯，7*24小时全年不间断。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 全球债券市场近日持续遭遇大规模抛售，收益率快速攀升。 这一走势与2023年的情况相似，当时美国股市大幅下跌。有分析指出， 这次股市还有进一步下跌空间， 美股在未来六个月内可能面临严峻挑战。 美银认为， 如果美债收益率突破5%，投资者或将重新评估风险资产的估值，导致股市承压。 那么问题来了，美联储进入降息周期，美债收益率却大幅飙升，市场到底在定价什么？ 简单来说， 通胀焦虑促使交易员们降低了对美联储和英国央行今年降息的预期。 比如，即将卸任的美国财长耶伦就认为，拜登的抗疫支出可能"有点"推升通胀，经济比预期强劲导致市场的利率预期重新定价调整，是这轮美债抛 售的推手。她还表示， 不愿看到"债券卫士"卷土重来。 与此同时，市场正在权衡美国当选总统特 ...

更重要的是，地缘政治风险如乌克兰、波兰、加沙和加勒比地区的紧张局势，以及中美贸易争端的潜在升级，都在为黄金注入动能，降息加上这些"剑拔弩 张"的国际事件，将促使黄金和白银在短暂获利回吐后涌现。即便贸易问题得到部分解决，减少不确定性可能支撑美元并压低金价，但当前的不确定性风暴 ——包括中东和东欧战争——被视为"完美风暴"，让黄金逆历史趋势与股市并行上涨已有三年之久。Sean Lusk指出，金价从三年前就开始上涨，已远超过 往模式，如果不确定性持续，年底前可能飙至3960美元，甚至4000美元大关。 ---当日金银报价--- 现货黄金报3690附近美元/盎司； 基本面： 周一（9月22日）白银周四早盘高位震荡盘整小幅上涨，美联储降息如约而至，银价未能大涨反而走低，基本面美美债收益率回升与美元反弹：黄金面临的 短期压力与黄金走势密切相关的美国国债市场也呈现出复杂信号。上周，美债收益率大多走高，指标10年期国债收益率连续三天上涨，至4.141%，创两周 高点，周涨幅达8.1个基点。这逆转了此前因降息预期而下滑的趋势，上周初曾触及七个月低点3.994%。收益率回升源于强劲的经济数据，如初请失业金人 数和中大西洋制造业活 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the US and Chinese bond markets is mainly due to the "hawkish" outlook of US monetary policy and the expectation of fiscal stimulus in China. The US bond yield rebounded, and the focus of the domestic bond market may shift to the expectation of fiscal stimulus. The production price index decreased, and the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased compared to the same period last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data on food, other consumer goods, commodities, energy, metals, real estate, shipping, etc. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.16% week - on - week and 26.81% year - on - year; the 30 - city commercial housing trading area increased by 2.79% week - on - week [16]. High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, export volume, etc., like the relationship between copper spot price year - on - year and industrial added value year - on - year (+PPI year - on - year) [24]. Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [90][101]. Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including the average daily output of crude steel, production price index, and the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, etc. [103][112]. High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown [162][165].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about a potential rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields following a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2024 are present, but the risk of this scenario repeating is limited this time [1] Group 1 - Dario Messi, head of the fixed income department at Swiss Bank Pictet, indicates that while there are reasonable arguments for a rise in yields, the current starting point provides more buffer against such developments [1] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is higher than the level at which the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates in September 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed robust demand, with the direct bidder allocation ratio reaching a historical high and the allocation to primary dealers at one of the lowest levels in history [1] - The awarded yield for the 20-year bonds was 4.613%, significantly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.74, higher than in July and the second highest since March, indicating strong actual demand [1] Group 2 - The average fixed-rate mortgage loan rate for 30-year terms dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical trends suggest that in a recessionary environment, rate cuts may lower long-term yields, while in a non-recessionary environment, the impact on long-term rates may be minimal [1] - There is a possibility that the market may react by "buying the rumor, selling the fact," leading to a slight sell-off of 10-year Treasuries after the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut [1]

与此同时，美元在经历了自1973年以来最大的上半年跌幅后，反弹乏力，部分原因正是市场对美联储将 深度降息的预期。 本周FOMC利率决议，市场确信美联储至少降息25个基点，但这已经无法满足激进预期，投资者已经为 延续至2026年的一系列降息进行了定价。 目前金融市场普遍倾向于认为，就业形势的担忧将在本周利率决议中占据主导地位，美联储将传达鸽派 基调。市场已消化了美联储为避免经济衰退而将在2026年前持续降息的预期，这种乐观情绪推动美债收 益率跌至数月低位，美股屡创新高。 在债券市场，基准10年期美债收益率接近4月以来最低水平，标普500指数逼近历史高位，纳斯达克100 指数刚刚录得一年多来最长连涨纪录。 然而，由于通胀水平仍高于目标，关税对价格的影响仍在发酵，分析认为，美联储主席鲍威尔及其他官 员可能发出信号，暗示投资者过于激进，从而引发资产价格的重新定价。鲍威尔讲话和美联储官员利率 预测"点阵图"是本次决议的关注重点。 25基点几成定局，50基点存在小概率可能 市场对本周三美联储降息25基点的预期已接近100%确定性。Brandywine Global Investment Management 债券投资组合 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has indicated that there will be no changes in the short term, and market expectations for preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September are deemed correct [1] - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as it is crucial for maintaining credibility in economic policy, which in turn lowers borrowing costs and supports sustainable growth [1] - The theme of currency depreciation remains unchanged, with gold prices surpassing $3,650, reflecting a monthly increase of 6% and a year-to-date increase of 40% [1] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests a favorable outlook for the stock market, contingent on strong income and profit growth, regulatory relaxation, healthy balance sheets, record capital expenditure, lower policy rates, and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4%, which is considered high, and the market has nearly priced in the peak of dovish sentiment relative to current data [1] - A significant sell-off is anticipated if future predictions hold true, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]

全球市场屏息以待，投资者目光聚焦于20:30公布的关键美国通胀数据，这份报告被视为影响下周美联储利率决策的最后关键数据。昨日，意外疲 软的PPI已为市场关于更大幅度降息的辩论火上浇油。 周四，欧洲主要股指开盘集体上涨，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.15%。标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数期货回吐了早些时候的涨幅。日韩股市收涨， 续创收盘新高。美元兑日元短线拉升，日内涨0.12%。 大宗商品市场方面，黄金在前一交易日上涨后小幅走低。原油价格在连续三天上涨后也出现回落。 CPI数据成焦点，市场押注降息路径 目前，市场的所有注意力都集中在周四晚些时候公布的美国CPI数据上。据市场估计，剔除食品和燃料的核心CPI在8月份可能连续第二个月上涨 0.3%。若读数弱于预期，可能会引发市场对美联储下周降息50个基点的进一步猜测。 BMO Capital Markets的Ian Lyngen和Vail Hartman表示： 欧洲主要股指开盘集体上涨，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.15%。标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数期货回吐了早些时候的涨幅。标普500指数和纳斯达克 100指数期货回吐了早些时候的涨幅。现货黄金下跌0.3%至3629 ...