Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Postpone [9] Core Viewpoints - The market has basically priced in the slowdown of the interest rate cut rhythm in 2026. The unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data has a short-term negative impact on gold prices. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the near future. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8]. - The macro logic of silver is similar to that of gold. However, due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The Ag2604 contract may oscillate between 20,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In January, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year, exceeding the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. The average hourly wage increased by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%. Traders are now fully pricing in a Fed rate cut in July, compared with the previous expectation of June. Geopolitically, there is uncertainty as Trump is privately considering withdrawing from the North American trade agreement [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On February 11, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.68 yuan/gram and closed at 1,130.40 yuan/gram, a change of 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 1,133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1,118.20 yuan/gram, a 0.44% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,420.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20,944.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 3.25% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,079 lots, and the open interest was 211,818 lots. The night session opened at 21,718 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20,965 yuan/kilogram, a 2.27% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 11, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.16%, a change of -0.06% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.71%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On February 11, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 93,387 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 24,886 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 282,196 lots, a change of -3.31% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 126,073 lots, and the short positions changed by 129,594 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,084,057 lots, a change of -14.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.32 tons, a decrease of 0.34 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,216 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 11, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 0.14 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 54.63 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 53.97, a change of -2.36% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 61.35, a change of -1.25% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,974 kilograms, a change of -7.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 232,512 kilograms, a change of -19.36% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7].

Core Insights - The strong January employment report led to the dollar recovering from previous losses and reaching intraday highs, while most G-10 currencies declined [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.3% after three consecutive days of decline, as traders reduced bets on the Federal Reserve's easing policy for the year [1] - Most G-10 currencies fell, with the Swiss franc and Swedish krona experiencing the largest declines, while the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone managed to maintain their gains [1] - Monthly job additions and average hourly earnings in the U.S. exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was lower than widely anticipated [1]

中新社北京2月11日电近期，现货黄金价格在经历急涨暴跌的"过山车"行情后，重新站上了5000美元/盎 司的关键关口。 分析人士指出，金价"高台跳水"后，市场情绪已较为敏感，容易受到消息面扰动而发生剧烈波动，进而 导致金价震荡，但近年支撑金价上行的基本因素仍将持续发挥作用。 摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师表示，近期金价走势属于短期冲高回落后反转，是消化前期过快涨幅 的阶段性调整，并非长期涨势终结。其预测金价未来数周或数月将进入宽幅震荡区间。 金价大跌后逐渐震荡企稳，东方金诚研究发展部分析师瞿瑞认为，这一方面源于暴跌后，金价估值回归 理性，吸引投资者逢低入场。另一方面，市场认识到美联储短期内难以改变宽松交易的趋势，恐慌情绪 有所缓和。此外，最新公布的美国就业数据超预期疲弱，提升了市场对美联储宽松政策的预期，也为金 价提供反弹动力。 富国银行将2026年黄金年终目标价上调至每盎司6100至6300美元区间。德意志银行贵金属分析师薛家康 (Michael Hsueh)维持了金价长期触及6000美元/盎司的预测。 与此同时，多位专家强调，当前黄金已大幅脱离传统成本区间，高位价格更多由市场情绪、地缘政治及 各国央行购金行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the interest rate differential will be a major driver of the USD/JPY exchange rate following the resolution of political uncertainty in Japan due to the recent House of Representatives election [1] - The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida achieved a decisive victory in the election, which is expected to influence market dynamics [1] - Despite potential short-term caution from domestic institutions due to the end of the current fiscal year, demand for the yen may rebound in the new fiscal year [1] Group 2 - Foreign investors' interest in Japanese government bonds, particularly those hedged against foreign exchange risk, is likely to remain stable due to the suppression of U.S. bond yields by the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies [1]

1月建筑业就业人数增加0.9万人，12月增加0.1万人；薪资增速年率中值为4.7%，12月为 4.2%。 1月制造业就业人数减少0.8万人，12月减少0.5万人；薪资增速年率中值为5.0%，12月为 4.8%。 1月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.4万人，12月增加1.1万人；薪资增速年率中值为 4.3%，12月为4.2%。 薪资处理服务商ADP周三发布的报告显示，美国1月劳动力市场几乎毫无起色，新增就业人数甚至低于 原本低迷的市场预期。 北京时间21:15，美国1月ADP就业人数录得增加2.2万人，不及市场预期中值的4.8万人，也低于彭博调 查的所有经济学家预估值，前值从4.1万人下修至3.7万人。 ADP报告重要行业就业人数和薪资变化如下： 1月金融服务业就业人数增加1.4万人，12月增加0.6万人；薪资增速年率中值为5.2%，12月 为5.2%。 1月专业/商业服务就业人数减少5.7万人，12月减少2.9万人；薪资增速年率中值为5.2%，12 月为5.2%。 ADP报告指出，在招聘表现平淡的一个月里，若不是教育和医疗服务行业激增7.4万人，1月私营部门就 业增长将陷入负值区间。拖累整体表现的主要是制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Greene, suggests that the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies may lead to increased inflation in the UK [1] Group 1 - Greene indicates that the Federal Reserve's actions could have a direct impact on UK inflation rates [1] - The potential for rising inflation in the UK is linked to the broader implications of US monetary policy [1]

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 1月23日，黄金消息面解析：现货黄金价格周四（1月22日）首次突破每盎司4900美元大关，并持续刷新 历史新高，直至周五（1月23日）亚市早盘，截止07：57，触及4960.43美元/盎司的高点。这一波涨势 不仅带动了白银和铂金等贵金属创下纪录新高，还反映出市场对地缘政治不确定性、美元疲软以及美联 储宽松政策的强烈反应。作为一种传统的避险资产，黄金在当前复杂的国际环境中脱颖而出，成为投资 者追捧的焦点。 展望未来，黄金市场的牛市格局有望延续，但也面临下行风险。高盛上调金价预期至5400美元/盎司， 基于私营部门不抛售持仓和央行持续购金的假设，现货黄金已从2026年初的水平上涨近15%，延续去年 64%的涨幅。然而，如果全球货币政策风险急剧下降，导致对冲头寸平仓，金价可能回调。地缘政治的 变数仍是关键：特朗普的不可预测性令欧盟警惕，跨大西洋关系虽暂缓和，但长期信心受损，可能引发 更多波动。 总体而言，投资者应关注美联储会议、经济数据和北极部署进展。黄金在去美元化趋势中的角色日益凸 显，成为对抗不确定性的盾牌。在这个充满地缘风暴的时代，黄金不仅仅是投资品，更是全球稳定的锚 点。2026年的 ...

基本面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得大阳线收盘继续扩张多头领地，盘中一度大涨近200美元幅度令空头望而生畏，短期或继续盘踞后展开攻势挑战5000美元大关，或 留意该整千心理关口测试及短线了结风险。1--4小时级别，短线走势自4300低位起涨后多头迎来连续进攻，本周虽初现短暂调整测试4750上方支撑但表现戏 剧，隔夜盘中连夜攻破4900关口并再创新高展现强劲，至当前亚盘午市，价格仍盘踞高位横盘暗示蓄力代发。日内交易者或留意4920/4900附近回测尝试多 单，上方压力4960/5000附近。 操作思路： 多单： 周五（1月23日）亚盘时段，现货黄金延续隔夜强势并刷新历史高位至4967.18美元/盎司，目前暂交投于4954美元附近盘整。现货黄金价格周四（1月22日） 首次突破每盎司4900美元大关，并持续刷新历史新高，这一波涨势不仅带动了白银和铂金等贵金属创下纪录新高，还反映出市场对地缘政治不确定性、美元 疲软以及美联储宽松政策的强烈反应。作为一种传统的避险资产，黄金在当前复杂的国际环境中脱颖而出，成为投资者追捧的焦点。在2026年的开年之际， 全球黄金市场迎来了一场史无前例的狂飙盛宴。 地缘政治紧张局势一直是黄金价 ...

基本面： 周五（1月23日）亚市早盘，触及4960.43美元/盎司的高点。这一波涨势不仅带动了白银和铂金等贵金属创下纪录新高，还反映出市场对地缘政治不确定 性、美元疲软以及美联储宽松政策的强烈反应。作为一种传统的避险资产，黄金在当前复杂的国际环境中脱颖而出，成为投资者追捧的焦点。地缘政治风 暴：格陵兰危机成黄金飙升催化剂，地缘政治紧张局势一直是黄金价格上涨的强大推手，而最近围绕格陵兰岛的国际争端更是将这一因素推向高潮。美国总 统特朗普宣布与北约达成协议，确保美国对格陵兰岛的"全面且永久性准入"，这一消息虽暂时缓和了跨大西洋关系的紧张，但也暴露了北极地区安全承诺的 升级需求，以应对来自俄罗斯等国的潜在威胁。 特朗普的立场从最初的关税威胁和军事行动暗示，到突然逆转并排除武力选项，这一戏剧性变化引发了全球市场的剧烈波动。欧洲盟友们虽松了一口气，但 欧盟领导人在布鲁塞尔紧急峰会上表达了对美国可靠性的担忧，强调需要减少对华盛顿的依赖，并重新评估跨大西洋关系。这种不确定性直接刺激了避险情 绪的爆发。格陵兰总理尼尔森强调主权红线不容逾越，丹麦首相弗雷德里克森则指出局势依然严峻，尽管取得了进展，但北约需要在北极建立常态化部署 ...

前言： 什么样的行情才是最难做的行情？明明看着行情在涨，可就是鼓不起勇气跟上节奏，好不容易跟上，结 果是诱多行情，单子再一次打损！总在反复究竟与犹豫中与你的利润失之交臂，除了一声叹息，什么都 没有改变，炒黄金亏损的账面依旧有一个大写的的负号刺激着你，或许老天也有眷顾的一天，行情一波 回调给了你机会，可是回调是否是行情的反转？无论现货黄金行情怎么动，总有一个理由阻止你。似乎 总是这样，行情总喜欢跟你开玩笑，总在牵着你的鼻子走，你也总在追赶它的脚步，却总是追不上，被 它一次次伤害，最后弄得自己遍体鳞伤，交易之路慢慢，随波逐流者多之!然不谋全局者不足谋一城， 市场风云，变幻莫测，定其心，观其势，谋定而后动，不乱于心，不困于情，运筹帷幄之中，方能决胜 千里之外。买卖点位不应该是随意进场，请对自己的资金负责，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。经常做错方向和进出场点位把控的不是很好，操作中亏损的朋 友，可与晟富一起交流。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 在2026年的开年之际，全球黄金市场迎来了一场史无前例的狂飙盛宴。现货黄金价格周四首次突破每盎 司4900 ...