Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 12th day, with increasing uncertainty for hundreds of thousands of federal workers already on unpaid leave, as bipartisan negotiations remain stalled [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1, leading to temporary layoffs in various departments, including Education, Treasury, and Homeland Security, with significant layoffs expected if the situation continues [1][3] - The previous shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 lasted 35 days and resulted in an estimated $3 billion loss to the U.S. GDP, highlighting the economic impact of prolonged government closures [2][3] Group 2 - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to significant job losses in key sectors reliant on government funding, such as research, education, and infrastructure, causing long-term damage to the labor market [3][4] - The shutdown is expected to delay or cancel the release of critical economic data, affecting foreign businesses operating in the U.S. and complicating the Federal Reserve's economic assessments [4][6] - Standard & Poor's Global estimates that each week of the shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.1% to 0.2%, with potential long-term repercussions on market stability and investor confidence [4][5] Group 3 - The shutdown's impact is expected to extend beyond the U.S., with the European economy potentially losing €4 billion after two weeks and €16 billion after eight weeks, indicating a nonlinear effect on global markets [5][6] - Analysts predict that a prolonged shutdown could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, creating negative ripple effects in global markets [6]

【技术分析】 现货黄金（伦敦金）：从技术角度来看，黄金价格在100天简单移动平均线(SMA)前找到一些支撑，目 前似乎阻止了FOMC后的下跌。然而，振荡器在日常图表刚刚开始获得负面影响，这表明任何超过3300 美元大关的后续力量更有可能被卖入并保持在3310美元附近。然而，持续高于后者可能引发空头回补反 弹，并将金价提升至下一个相关障碍，即3325-3326美元水平区域附近。另一方面，3，275-3，270美元 区域(接近100天均线)可能会继续保护近期的下行，低于该区域，金价可能会重新测试6月份的月度波动 低点，约为3，248-3，247美元区域。后者应该是一个关键的关键点，如果被果断突破，将被视为XAU/ 美元空头的新触发因素，并为下跌至3200美元整数位铺平道路。 现货白银（伦敦银）：从技术层面剖析，7月23日白银攀至14年高位39.53美元后遭遇阻力。此后，其价 格下挫近4.75%，失守自4月开启的上涨趋势通道中点。当下，白银正考验37.50美元这一关键支撑位， 该价位此前曾是阻力区。若日线收于其下，或跌向与50日EMA重合的通道下沿，多头若失守此位，深 调风险陡增。100日均线在35.10美元、20 ...