Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 12th day, with increasing uncertainty for hundreds of thousands of federal workers already on unpaid leave, as bipartisan negotiations remain stalled [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1, leading to temporary layoffs in various departments, including Education, Treasury, and Homeland Security, with significant layoffs expected if the situation continues [1][3] - The previous shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 lasted 35 days and resulted in an estimated $3 billion loss to the U.S. GDP, highlighting the economic impact of prolonged government closures [2][3] Group 2 - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to significant job losses in key sectors reliant on government funding, such as research, education, and infrastructure, causing long-term damage to the labor market [3][4] - The shutdown is expected to delay or cancel the release of critical economic data, affecting foreign businesses operating in the U.S. and complicating the Federal Reserve's economic assessments [4][6] - Standard & Poor's Global estimates that each week of the shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.1% to 0.2%, with potential long-term repercussions on market stability and investor confidence [4][5] Group 3 - The shutdown's impact is expected to extend beyond the U.S., with the European economy potentially losing €4 billion after two weeks and €16 billion after eight weeks, indicating a nonlinear effect on global markets [5][6] - Analysts predict that a prolonged shutdown could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, creating negative ripple effects in global markets [6]