Group 1 - The U.S. job market is facing a silent crisis, with Goldman Sachs economists warning that the weak employment growth trend has not yet bottomed out and may worsen further [1][3] - Current trend-based job growth has fallen below the "minimum survival line" of 30,000 jobs per month, with future statistical revisions likely to be negative due to ongoing weakness in sectors like healthcare and seasonal hiring [1][3] - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4%, but the labor force participation rate is declining, and job vacancies are sharply reduced, leading to near-zero hiring activity across most sectors [3][5] Group 2 - Structural pressures are reshaping the labor market, with a significant drop in immigration leading to a drastic reduction in the number of new jobs needed to maintain full employment [3][5] - The net immigration scale has plummeted from 2.6 million last year to nearly zero this year, potentially turning negative, exacerbated by stricter immigration policies [3][5] - Industries such as healthcare and education, which previously relied on pandemic-related hiring, are now showing signs of fatigue, with warnings that job growth may drop to 10,000 to 40,000 by the end of the year [5][6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is facing a potential policy shift, with expectations of three rate cuts this year to counteract employment weakness, and possibly two additional cuts next year [6] - The upcoming speech by Powell at the Jackson Hole conference will be a key indicator for the future path of interest rate cuts [6]