Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing severity of the U.S. budget deficit and its potential to lead to a debt crisis, particularly highlighting the issues surrounding student loans and government spending [1][5][11]. Group 1: Budget Deficit and Debt Crisis - Jared Bernstein, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, has shifted from a "dove" to a "hawk" stance on budget deficits, acknowledging that the situation has worsened [2][3]. - Bernstein emphasizes the relationship between economic growth and debt interest rates, citing that if GDP growth exceeds debt interest rates, the government can sustain budget deficits [3][6]. - The number of Americans with federal student loan debt has increased from 21 million to 45 million between 2000 and 2020, with total debt rising from $387 billion to $1.8 trillion, indicating a significant growth in financial burden [5][12]. Group 2: Government Spending and Economic Policies - Bernstein notes that the cost of U.S. debt has historically not been burdensome, but recent changes have led to a convergence of debt costs and economic growth rates, raising concerns about debt sustainability [6][7]. - The article mentions that the Biden administration's spending has contributed to a substantial increase in debt, although Bernstein does not directly address this issue [8][12]. - Bernstein suggests that Congress should establish "red lines" and mandatory fiscal responses to prevent a debt crisis, as interest payments on debt are projected to exceed spending on Medicare and defense [11]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Impact - Goldman Sachs reports that the current budget deficit is unsustainable, with the debt-to-GDP ratio nearing post-World War II highs, and the trajectory of debt and interest payments as a percentage of GDP is expected to steepen [13][12]. - The article highlights that Trump's tax cuts and spending policies are anticipated to result in trillions of dollars in additional deficits over the coming years [12].

达里奥还补充说，投资者向政府借款的利率越高，用于治理国家的资金就越少，消费者和企业的利率就 会上升，通常会使一个国家筹集资金的选择更少。 智通财经6月4日讯（编辑 黄君芝）亿万富翁投资者、全球最大对冲基金桥水基金的创始人达里奥在一 本新书中警告称，美国发生债务危机的短期风险较低，但长期来看风险很高。 他在周二出版的《国家是如何破产的：大周期》（How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle）一书中写 道，美国政府债务状况正"接近无法挽回的地步"，并正在走向可能威胁世界最大经济体稳定的"死亡螺 旋"。 他解释称，更高的赤字意味着财政部可能需要出售更多债券来为其支出和利息支付融资。债务"死亡螺 旋"则指政府需要发行更多债券来筹集资金来偿还现有债务，但需求却在减少，不得不向投资者支付越 来越多的利息才能让他们接受。 "利率螺旋式上升导致信贷风险恶化，导致对债务的需求减少，导致利率上升，这是一个典型的债务'死 亡螺旋'，"达利奥写道。 他在书中强调，美国政府债务危机的"迫在眉睫的风险非常低"，但"长期风险非常高"。 "在我看来，这表明美国政策制定者在处理政府财政问题时应该更加保守，因为最糟 ...