来源：市场资讯 来源：金十数据 美国最高法院即将对特朗普去年4月推出的全面关税政策的合法性做出裁决。这项曾短暂引发市场震荡 的政策，如今正成为美股和美债面临的下一个重大考验。 美股延续了新年的涨势，标普500指数再创历史新高。受人工智能热潮以及特朗普决定缩减部分最严厉 关税的推动，该基准指数已较4月份的低点上涨约40%。与此同时，随着交易员押注美联储将在经济降 温之际继续降息，美国国债收益率也已从2025年中期的峰值回落。 富国银行（Wells Fargo & Co．）首席股票策略师Ohsung Kwon此前估计，如果最高法院裁决不利于关 税政策，标普500指数成分股2026年的息税前利润将在去年的水平上增长2.4%。在这种情境下，投资者 很可能会因预期利润增加而推高股价。Ocean Park资产管理公司首席投资官James St． Aubin表示，这将 是"一波小幅反弹的催化剂"。 尽管如此，如果最高法院裁定特朗普对全球各国征收的全面关税越权，市场仍面临长期的不确定性，因 为白宫可能会援引不同的法律依据，试图重新实施类似的征税措施。 但并非所有股票都能均等受益： 债券交易员正为市场波动做准备。去年，随着市场 ...

在达到目标并维持信誉之前，重新'锚定'(通胀预期)是非常困难的，"贝森特表示。他也承认了家庭对负 担能力的担忧——这种焦虑在11月举行的非大选年选举中显现，并导致了共和党的失利。 这位财政部长表示，"我们理解美国民众正在承受痛苦。"物价水平"已经变得非常高"，他将此归咎于拜 登政府。他认为，通胀现在"开始回落"，部分原因在于租金的下降——而他认为，租金的上涨是由无证 移民的激增所驱动的。 今日周三(12月24日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于71.76一线上方，今日开盘于71.46美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报72.10美元/盎司，上涨0.91%，最高触及72.70美元/盎司，最低下探71.31美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特(Scott Bessent)支持这样一种观点：一旦美国可持续地将物价涨幅控制回2% 的水平，就应重新考虑美联储的2%通胀目标。" 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银价格在早盘中交易中继续上涨，持续刷新历史新高，主看涨趋势在短期内占据主导地位，交易 伴随着支撑性的小趋势线，且由于交易高于EMA50，正压持续存在，同时相对 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特支持在通胀率可持续地回落到2%之后，重新考虑美联 储的2%通胀目标。贝森特在一次访谈中表示："一旦我们回到2%的通胀水平——我认为这即将实现 ——我们就可以进行讨论：设立一个目标区间是否更明智?"他说："一旦我们重新锚定这一目标，就可 以讨论设立一个区间。" 贝森特在这次发布于12月22日的访谈中建议，讨论可能会围绕转向1.5%至2.5%或1%至3%的区间展开。 他说："这将是一场非常充分的讨论。" 美联储政策制定者于2012年正式公开采纳了当前2%的通胀目标，这一目标也被全球许多央行采用。贝 森特认为，"精确到小数点的确定性是荒谬的。"但他表示，在通胀率高于该目标时进行调整，可能会给 人一种"当通胀高于某一水平时，你总会向上调整"的印象。 这次访谈录制于12月18日美国劳工统计局发布11月消费者价格指数之后。该数据显示CPI同比上涨 2.7%。美联储采用另一个指标PCE价格指数来衡量通胀。最新数据显示，截至9月的12个月内，PCE上 涨了2.8%。 民众正在"承受痛苦" 贝森特说："除非你达到目标并维持可信度，否则很难重新锚定。"他也承认了民众对负担能力的担忧 ...

Core Insights - Strong foreign direct investment is expected to enhance liquidity in the foreign exchange market and address the foreign exchange restrictions that have plagued Papua New Guinea (PNG) for over a decade [1] Economic Growth and Projections - PNG's economy has grown from 62 billion kina a decade ago to 138 billion kina today, marking a 126% increase, with 66% of this growth occurring in the past five years [1] - The possibility of achieving a 200 billion kina economy by 2030 is considered very high [1] Government Policy and Budget Forecasts - The next decade will test PNG's ability to convert resource wealth into economic growth [1] - The 2026 budget indicators include: - The last year of budget deficit is projected to be 2026 - Nominal GDP is expected to grow by 9.2%, reaching 148.4 billion kina - Fiscal revenue is estimated at 29.3 billion kina, while fiscal expenditure is projected at 30.9 billion kina - A deficit of 1.6 billion kina is anticipated, accounting for 1.1% of GDP - Public sector debt is expected to be 66.2 billion kina, representing 45.5% of GDP, down from 48.2% in 2025 - A budget surplus is expected in 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund has released a mid-term forecast report regarding Kyrgyzstan's budget surplus situation for the coming years [1] - The report indicates that Kyrgyzstan's national budget will maintain a surplus to ensure the repayment of basic debts, particularly through capital injections into state-owned enterprises in the energy, banking, and construction sectors, which are included in the 2025-2027 budget [1] - Analysts predict that by 2028, the proportion of tax revenue to GDP will gradually decline to 15%, leading to a budget deficit of approximately 0.2% of GDP [1] Budget Forecast - The average budget surplus for the years 2025-2027 is projected to be around 1.6% of GDP, supported by a high tax revenue ratio averaging 23% of GDP [1] - The capital injections into key sectors are aimed at maintaining fiscal stability and supporting economic growth [1]

Core Insights - The overall budget data for the UK is currently positive, indicating an increase in fiscal space [1] - The budget deficit is expected to tighten over the next two years, which could support interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - The UK budget situation is described as good, with improved fiscal conditions [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the early release of the report by the Office for Budget Responsibility was a mistake [1] Fiscal Policy - The tightening of the budget deficit in the upcoming two years is highlighted as a significant factor [1] - This tightening is seen as a potential enabler for the Bank of England to lower interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The European Commission stated that Germany's defense spending increase has led to an excessive deficit, but no action will be taken against Germany for this issue [1] - The Commission highlighted that several EU member states, including Germany, are expected to see an increase in their deficits by 2026 due to rising defense expenditures [1] - The Commission's assessment revealed that the EU faces strategic vulnerabilities and structural challenges, including low productivity, demographic pressures, and rising public spending needs related to defense, decarbonization, and digital economy transformation [1] Group 2 - Finland's budget deficit is projected to be 4.4% of GDP in 2024, increasing to 4.5% in 2025 and then decreasing to 4.0% in 2026, prompting the need for an excessive deficit procedure [1] - Germany's deficit is expected to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027, which exceeds the EU's Stability and Growth Pact limits [1] - The European Commission anticipates that the overall fiscal stance of Eurozone countries should remain neutral in the coming year, recommending a reallocation of budget priorities to meet strategic investment needs [1][2]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $284 billion for October, primarily due to the recent government shutdown [1] - A Treasury official indicated that the shutdown, lasting 43 days, caused delays in payments for certain expenditures, such as government employee salaries [1] - The release of the budget results for the first month of fiscal year 2026 has been postponed due to the shutdown [1]

此外，欧委会还根据评估结果，认为有必要对芬兰启动过度赤字程序。而德国因国防支出增加导致赤字 超标被免予处罚。 芬兰2024年的预算赤字为GDP的4.4%，预计今年将升至4.5%，明年将维持在4.0%。德国今年的赤字预 计为GDP的3.1%，到2026 年为4.0%，2027年为3.8%，同样高于3%的上限。根据欧盟《稳定与增长公 约》规定，各国政府的年度预算赤字不得超过GDP的3%，公共债务不得超过GDP的60%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 欧委会此前公布的经济预测报告指出，欧元区预算赤字将从2024年的占国内生产总值（GDP）的3.1% 小幅上升至今年的3.2%，并在2026年进一步升至3.3%，2027年升至3.4%。其中，受国防支出增加影 响，比利时、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚和德国的赤字预计明年将上升。 欧委会评估了所有成员国对欧盟财政框架的遵守情况。欧委会指出，欧盟面临若干战略脆弱性，并持续 遭遇结构性挑战，包括生产率偏低、人口结构压力，以及与国防、脱碳和数字经济转型相关的公共财政 支出需求不断增加，因此要增强竞争力并保持稳健的公共财政。 新华财经布鲁塞尔11月26日电 欧盟委员会25日表示，欧元区各 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. federal budget deficit for October reached $284 billion, significantly impacted by the recent government shutdown lasting 43 days [1] - A Treasury official indicated that the shutdown caused delays in payments for certain expenditures, such as government employee salaries, which affected the release of budget results for the first month of fiscal year 2026 [1]