（原标题：克罗地亚第二季度预算赤字超过GDP的3%） 欧元区预算收入占GDP比重上升0.2%，达46.7%，较第一季度增加约210亿欧元。欧盟预算收入占 GDP比重上升0.1%，达46.2%，较第一季度增加约240亿欧元。 据克通社10月22日报道，欧盟统计局数据显示，克罗地亚第二季度预算赤字大幅上升，自2024年春 季以来首次超过GDP的3%的上限。 欧盟统计局称，根据季节性调整后的数据，欧盟有21个成员国第二季度出现预算赤字，其中9个国 家的赤字超过GDP的3%，其中克预算赤字占GDP的4.2%，较第一季度增加1.2%。赤字最高的是罗马尼 亚，占GDP的8.7%。另外五个成员国出现预算盈余，其中塞浦路斯的盈余最多，占GDP的 3.6%。 欧元区第二季度经季节性调整后的赤字占GDP的2.7%，与2025年第一季度持平。整个欧盟的赤字 达到2.9%，比第一季度上升了0.1个百分点。 欧元区公共支出占GDP的49.4%，较上一季度上升0.2%，总支出增加约210亿欧元。欧盟整体支出 占GDP的比重上升至49.1%，总支出较年初增加约300亿欧元。 ...

美国财长贝森特：我认为关税有助于消费者，因为……我们降低了预算赤字……随着赤字支出的减少，通货膨胀也会下降。 https://t.co/DSd7sOFdLo ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices showed strong performance, breaking through $4,110 per ounce with an increase of 2.72%, and further rising to $4,120 per ounce [1][2] - New York futures gold also rose, surpassing $4,120 per ounce with a daily increase of 2.75% [3] - Silver's main contract surged by 3%, currently reported at ¥11,895.00 per ton [4] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Federal Reserve official Milan suggested a 50 basis point rate cut in December is appropriate, with at least a 25 basis point cut [5] - Musallam noted that the actual federal funds rate has decreased by 250 basis points over the past year, but further easing has limited space, while the Fed report indicates that housing and stock prices seem elevated [6][7][8] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated the budget deficit for October at $219 billion [9] Group 3: Financial Futures Market Dynamics - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq rising over 2% to 2.27%, driven by gains in large tech stocks [10] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index also rose, with a daily increase of 2.13%, closing at 8,229.270 points [11] - Among popular Chinese concept stocks, XPeng Motors led with a 16.15% increase, while Vipshop and Baidu rose over 5% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is crucial for economic stability, especially in the current international context where political pressures can undermine effective monetary policy [1][14]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is essential for implementing necessary and sometimes difficult decisions, as political systems tend to focus on short-term goals [1][14]. - The independence of central banks allows for a long-term perspective in monetary policy, which is vital for sustainable economic outcomes [14][15]. Group 2: Israel's Economic Transformation - Israel's economic success in the 1990s was attributed to a comprehensive strategy that included stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [2][12]. - The influx of highly skilled immigrants and improved geopolitical conditions contributed to Israel's transformation into a "startup nation," with high-tech exports accounting for over half of its total exports [2][12]. Group 3: Global Economic Governance - The shift from globalization to fragmentation is concerning, as countries are increasingly competing rather than cooperating, which can lead to unhealthy economic practices [6][8]. - China is recognized as a vital player in the global economy and should take on a larger role in global governance, responding to traditional systems' inadequacies [3][8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets Representation - Emerging markets have shown resilience and performed better than developed countries in recent years, but their representation in international institutions like the IMF does not reflect their economic weight [7][8]. - There is a growing recognition of the need to enhance the representation of emerging markets in global governance structures [7]. Group 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The accumulation of public debt is a long-term issue resulting from persistent budget and current account deficits, which can lead to systemic risks [9][10]. - Responsible government behavior and the development of robust capital markets are essential to manage high debt levels and maintain economic stability [10]. Group 6: Lessons from Israel - The experience of Israel in achieving price stability and economic openness can serve as a model for other emerging or middle-income economies [14][15]. - Effective public communication and building public support for monetary policy are critical for central banks to maintain their independence and achieve economic stability [15].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 87,015 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1] - On October 28, gold futures opened at 926.92 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 928.56 yuan and a low of 900.62 yuan, closing at 901.38 yuan, down 4.20% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 474,483 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 4,899 contracts to 175,916 contracts [1] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that by 2030, the U.S. government debt as a percentage of GDP will rise by over 20 percentage points to 143.4%, setting a new post-pandemic record [2] - The IMF estimates that the U.S. budget deficit will remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, making it the highest among all wealthy countries tracked by the organization [2] - In contrast, Italy and Greece are expected to see a decline in government debt ratios by the end of the century, as both countries are strictly controlling their budget deficits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. government debt burden will surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, highlighting the poor state of U.S. public finances [1][4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Debt Forecast - The IMF forecasts that by the end of the 2020s, the total government debt in the U.S. will rise by over 20 percentage points, reaching 143.4% of GDP, exceeding the previous record set post-pandemic [1]. - The U.S. budget deficit is expected to remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, the highest level among all wealthy countries tracked by the IMF [1]. Comparison with Italy and Greece - Italy and Greece, historically scrutinized for their weak public finances, are projected to see a decline in their government debt burdens by the end of this decade due to strict budget control [1]. - In contrast, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to continue rising, with projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicating this trend will persist for decades [1][4]. Economic Context - Despite a low unemployment rate, the federal deficit in the U.S. has rapidly expanded during the Biden administration, with the IMF suggesting minimal action taken by the previous Trump administration to address this issue [4]. - The U.S. has a significant borrowing capacity due to its status as the issuer of the global reserve currency, which contrasts with the economic challenges faced by European nations [4]. Debt Measurement Metrics - The total government debt metric, which includes both central and local government debts, has been lower for the U.S. compared to Italy and Greece since the early 21st century [5]. - A net debt measure, excluding financial assets, indicates that U.S. debt levels will still be about 10 percentage points lower than Italy's by the end of the decade, although this net debt is also on the rise [5]. Italy's Fiscal Improvement - Italy's government, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has received praise from foreign investors for its efforts to reduce the budget deficit, with a projected basic surplus of 0.9% of GDP this year, up from an initial forecast of 0.5% [8][10]. - Italy's fiscal deficit is expected to be 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when Meloni took office in 2022, allowing Italy to exit the EU's excessive deficit procedure a year ahead of schedule [9]. Political Challenges in the U.S. - The political landscape in the U.S. complicates efforts to reduce the significant deficit, with both Democrats and Republicans resistant to spending cuts or tax increases [11]. - Future predictions regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions are deemed optimistic, relying on uncertain factors such as productivity growth, tariff revenues, demographic changes, or interest rates [11].

Core Viewpoint - The UK reported a budget deficit of £20.2 billion in September, indicating a significant financial shortfall for the month [1] Group 1 - The budget deficit figure of £20.2 billion reflects the financial challenges faced by the UK government [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury reported a decrease in the budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 to $1.775 trillion, down $410 billion from the previous year, marking the first annual decline since 2022 [1] - The reduction in the deficit is attributed to record net tariff revenues of $195 billion, which increased by $118 billion due to the implementation of new tariffs [1] - Total federal revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached a record $5.235 trillion, an increase of $317 billion or 6% from $4.918 trillion in 2024 [1] - Federal spending for fiscal year 2025 also hit a record high of $7.01 trillion, up $275 billion or 4% from $6.735 trillion in the previous fiscal year [1] - The estimated deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2025 is 5.9%, compared to 6.3% for fiscal year 2024 [1] - In September 2025, the last month of the fiscal year, a record surplus of $198 billion was recorded, an increase of $118 billion or 147% from the same month the previous year [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. budget deficit for 2025 decreased to $1.78 trillion, a reduction of $41 billion or 2.2% compared to fiscal 2024, aided by record tariff collections and a September surplus of $198 billion [2][3]. Group 1: Budget Deficit and Tariff Collections - The federal government experienced a budget shortfall of $1.78 trillion, which is historically high but improved due to a significant increase in customs duties [2][3]. - Tariff collections reached $202 billion for the year, marking a 142% increase from 2024, with September alone contributing $30 billion, a 295% rise year-over-year [3][5]. Group 2: National Debt and Interest Payments - Interest payments on the national debt, which stands at $38 trillion, exceeded $1.2 trillion, nearly $100 billion more than in 2024, indicating a growing financial burden [4]. - Net interest payments, excluding Treasury earnings, totaled $970 billion, surpassing defense spending by $57 billion and ranking just behind Social Security, Medicare, and healthcare costs in the national budget [5]. Group 3: Economic Context and Federal Reserve Response - The fiscal year concluded with the U.S. generating $5.2 trillion in revenue while expenditures exceeded $7 trillion, highlighting a significant fiscal imbalance [6]. - Federal Reserve officials anticipate lowering the benchmark interest rate further, expecting any price increases from tariffs to be temporary, with the current rate set between 4.00% and 4.25% [6].

Core Points - Croatia's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Primorac reported on the execution of the 2025 national budget, indicating a general budget deficit of €2 billion for the first half of 2025, which is 2.2% of GDP [1] - The national budget deficit reached €1.9 billion, accounting for 2.1% of GDP, while off-budget users of the national budget achieved a surplus of €139.4 million, representing 0.2% of GDP [1] - Local and regional self-government units, along with county road management authorities, recorded a deficit of €211 million [1] Revenue and Expenditure - Total national budget revenue for the first half of 2025 amounted to €15 billion, reflecting a 7% increase compared to the first half of 2023 [1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.1%, reaching €8.5 billion [1] - Pension contributions totaled €2.8 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, while pension expenditures rose to €4.3 billion, up 11.2% year-on-year [1]