Group 1 - The Indian stock market sentiment has been negatively impacted by multiple factors, including U.S. punitive tariffs, weak corporate earnings, and India's rise to one of the highest valuation markets globally. As of September 26, overseas funds have withdrawn a net $17 billion from the Indian stock market this year, approaching the historical record set in 2022 [1] - The trend of foreign capital withdrawal from the Indian stock market continued into the beginning of the week, with preliminary data from Indian exchanges indicating an outflow of $319 million on September 29 alone [3] - Analysts on Wall Street noted that the sell-off in the Indian stock market has intensified this quarter, particularly after U.S. President Trump significantly raised H-1B visa fees, impacting tech companies reliant on this program. Given the unlikely short-term trade agreement between India and the U.S. and the lack of corporate earnings growth, analysts believe foreign capital is not expected to return quickly [3] Group 2 - To mitigate the impact of U.S. policy changes on the Indian economy, the Reserve Bank of India has announced measures to provide flexibility and reduce compliance burdens for exporters, importers, and re-export traders, extending the foreign exchange expenditure deadline for triangular trade transactions from four months to six months [3] - The Indian Ministry of Energy has stated that despite facing challenges, it remains committed to promoting economic growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a rebound in the US dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the long term, despite potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index outperformed European stock markets in June, reversing a trend of underperformance over the previous five months [1] - The yield premium on long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased from high levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - The current market order is perceived as more stable compared to the period following the large-scale tariff policies introduced in April [1] - Investors seem to believe that the impacts of US policies may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar over the next 12 months, although there is room for further short-term corrections [1]