在日交易量达9.6万亿美元的外汇市场，做空美元曾是今年的主导交易策略，但这一押注正开始遭遇挫 折。美元兑大多数主要货币汇率已升至约两个月高位，即使美国政府停摆仍在持续。 10月10日，据报道，亚洲和欧洲交易员表示，对冲基金正在增持期权头寸，押注美元反弹将延续至年 底。海外市场动向成为关键驱动因素，欧元和日元本月急剧下跌，同时美联储官员对进一步降息表达谨 慎态度，提振了美元吸引力。 分析称，这一趋势持续越久，对那些坚持美元将进一步走低的投资者而言就越痛苦，目前高盛、摩根大 通和摩根士丹利等华尔街巨头均位列美元空头阵营。如果美元强势延续，可能对全球经济产生连锁反 应，包括增加其他央行放松货币政策的难度、推高大宗商品成本，以及加重以美元计价的外债负担。 此外，美元的快速反弹还可能颠覆今年最受青睐的交易策略，打击第四季度对新兴市场股债的乐观预 期，并对美国出口商股价构成压力。 美联储降息预期过于激进 美联储政策路径的不确定性正成为美元走强的核心驱动力。交易员目前预期年底前将有大约两次25个基 点的降息，明年还会有更多降息。然而最近包括央行9月会议纪要和政策制定者的表态，表明降息轨迹 远非确定。 Columbia Th ...

日元与欧元在美元指数中合计占比约一半，而如今日元和欧元的同步走弱，叠加美联储官员反驳激进降 息预期的言论，正在为美元提供多重支撑。市场的价格走势已开始与主流的看空论调相悖，这或许暗 示，一个美元走强的新阶段可能已经开启。 日元打破常规，空头回补落空 日元的走势正打破历史常规。 在市场普遍押注美元将走弱的背景下，来自日元、欧元和期权市场的多个信号正共同指向一个出乎意料 的方向：一场美元反弹可能正在悄然上演。 最新的动态率先由日元引领。本周一，日元在开盘时大幅走弱，但与以往通常会迅速收复失地的模式不 同，其跌势在本周持续，美元兑日元汇率不仅未能回补跳空缺口，反而正创下今年以来最长的连涨纪 录。 与此同时，欧元也显露疲态。由于法国政治风险加深，欧元的看涨势头出现裂痕，期权市场数据显示看 空敞口大幅增加。据媒体透露，对冲基金正积极削减欧元多头头寸，部分账户甚至开始反手做空。 所有这一切都发生在交易量恢复正常的背景下，表明当前的头寸调整背后有切实的市场参与，可能预示 着更大范围的叙事转变。 美联储叙事转向，为美元反弹再添助力 除了来自外部的支撑，美元似乎也从美国国内因素中获得了动力。 通常情况下，当周一开盘出现大幅下跌 ...

来源：市场资讯 前言： 过去一周，市场整体走势基本和我上周的判断一致。美元、美债利率还有原油都出现了反弹（原油的做 多逻辑我在之前就点过），唯一稍微超出预期的是美股出现了小幅回落。 | LC | 5 欧进行 | 2025-09-21 09:20 阅读人数 946 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-21 周末小结 No.98 | | | | ♂ 2025-09-21 周末小结 No.98 | | | | 本周重点:美国零售数据, FOMC | 美债,美元:利率见底,美元见底 | | | 美股：成长股重回视野 | 英格兰央行:又又又进入两难 | | | Projection Year End | | | | Ship An | | | 美国数据再超预期，经济底子仍然硬 本周美国数据不多，但几项关键指标都值得关注。失业金申请人数降到21.8万，明显低于市场预期的 23.3万；PCE通胀大致符合预期；密歇根大学的通胀预期反而低于市场预期。 | United States | | | Browse 20:05:07 | Ask Al | 口 D | 09 高度 三日 | 74) | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a potential bubble in the market is increasing, but Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that the credit spread of tech stocks is at a multi-year low, suggesting that the AI-driven tech stock rally has not yet reached a dangerous level [1][4][5]. Group 1: Credit Spread and AI Bubble Concerns - The current credit spread for tech stocks is at its lowest point in 18 years, indicating that investors are not pricing in potential risks for tech companies in the credit market [4][5]. - This low credit spread contrasts sharply with typical late-stage asset bubble scenarios, which usually see a sharp rise in credit risk [5][6]. - The EPFR fund flow data supports this optimism, showing significant inflows into various asset classes, including $24.7 billion into bond funds and $19.6 billion into equities [6][7]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Market Risks - Hartnett warns that the primary risk for investors is not a bubble burst but an unexpected strengthening of the dollar, as the consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" has become prevalent [1][11]. - If the dollar index experiences a chaotic rebound and surpasses the critical level of 102, it could trigger a collective risk-off response among investors [11]. - Despite the short-term risk of a dollar rebound, Hartnett believes the long-term trend of dollar depreciation remains unchanged, providing structural support for assets like gold [12]. Group 3: Asset Performance and Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold has been the best-performing asset with a gain of 41.3%, while international stocks have risen by 24.7% and the dollar index has declined by 9.2% [8][9]. - The negative correlation between a weakening dollar and rising risk assets is evident, suggesting that as long as the consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" remains intact, the macro environment for asset appreciation will continue [11]. - Although gold is currently viewed as "overbought" tactically, it remains a "underweight" asset structurally, with only 0.4% of private client assets and 2.4% of institutional client assets allocated to gold [12].

在金融市场的浪潮中，黄金价格一路高歌猛进，历史性地首次冲破了每盎司3800美元这一重要的心理关 口，涨势得以延续。此次金价上扬的背后，有着多重因素的有力推动。美国最新公布的通胀数据与市场 预期高度契合，这使得投资者愈发坚信美联储在今年内会继续采取降息举措。与此同时，全球地缘政治 局势持续紧张，不确定性阴云笼罩，进一步刺激了市场对黄金等避险资产的强烈需求，推动其价格不断 攀升。 值得关注的是，日本黄金行业的领军企业——田中贵金属工业公司（位于东京），于29日将门店内的黄 金销售价格调整至每克20018日元（折合人民币约957元），成功突破2万日元大关，刷新了历史纪录。 市场预期，随着美联储开启降息周期，无利息的黄金相较于其他投资品种的吸引力将显著增强，国际金 价有望持续走高；加之日元近期呈现贬值态势，这也在一定程度上推升了日本国内的黄金销售价格。在 全球局势动荡不安的大背景下，黄金作为避险资产的属性愈发凸显，其价格也随之一路飙升。 摘要在金融市场的浪潮中，黄金价格一路高歌猛进，历史性地首次冲破了每盎司3800美元这一重要的心 理关口，涨势得以延续。此次金价上扬的背后，有着多重因素的有力推动。美国最新公布的通胀数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data met expectations, strengthening market bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, leading to significant increases in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1][2]. Market Review - On the last Friday, spot gold saw a substantial rise, reaching above $3780 during intraday trading but ultimately closed up 0.31% at $3760.53 per ounce, marking a six-week consecutive increase [2]. - Spot silver also surged, breaking above $46 and hitting a 14-year high, closing up 1.98% at $46.06 per ounce, similarly recording six consecutive weeks of gains [2]. Key News Summary - U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) have increased for the third consecutive month, with the core PCE price index remaining at a stubborn year-on-year increase of 2.9%, which is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [3]. - The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan has dropped to a four-month low, indicating rising concerns over income [3]. - The precious metals market has continued its strong upward trend, with both gold and silver futures reaching historical highs, particularly silver, which has shown stronger momentum [3]. - As of September 26, the COMEX silver futures have surpassed the $46 mark, driven by market sentiment following anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Economic data indicates a significant upward revision of the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate to 3.8%, up from a previous estimate of 3.3%, with consumer spending growth also revised upward [3]. - Despite the strong economic data supporting a rebound in the dollar, silver continues to reach new highs, suggesting a robust trend [3]. - Short-term expectations indicate silver may challenge the historical high of $50, with a forecast for increased volatility in the market [3]. - Mid-term target prices are set at $4000 for COMEX gold and $50 for COMEX silver [3].

Hartnett认为，当前美股科技股的信用债息差处于18年来的最低点，意味着AI泡沫尚未达到危险水平；美元贬值是驱动 本轮资产价格上涨的核心动力，一旦美元指数出现"无序"反弹并升破102的关键水平，可能导致"做空美元"的共识交易 被集中平仓。 AI泡沫行情到头了吗？美银认为尚未触及"危险水平"，市场目前真正的风险在于美元反弹。 尽管市场对潜在泡沫的讨论日渐升温，但美银策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新报告中指出， 科技股的信用债息差正处 于多年低点，这意味着由AI驱动的科技股涨势尚未达到危险水平。 Hartnett进一步警告称，投资者当前需要警惕的直接风险并非泡沫破裂，而是美元的意外走强，当前市场的最大软肋 是"做空美元"的共识交易。 一旦美元指数出现"无序"反弹并升破102的关键水平，可能会触发"风险规避"式的集体平 仓。 尽管如此，Hartnett认为，在通胀和利率走高的2020年代，大规模的政府债务和持续的货币贬值仍是长期趋势。这意 味着，虽然美元短期存在反弹风险，但其长期贬值的基础并未改变，这也是黄金等资产具备结构性支撑的原因。 信用债息差显示AI尚未形成信贷泡沫 这种全面的资金流入表明， ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a potential AI bubble is intensifying, but Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that the current credit spreads for tech stocks indicate that the AI-driven rally has not yet reached a dangerous level [1][2] Group 1: Credit Spreads and AI Bubble - The credit spreads for tech stocks are at an 18-year low, suggesting that investors are not pricing in potential risks for tech companies, contrasting with typical late-stage asset bubble scenarios where credit risks rise sharply [2][3] - Hartnett asserts that a comprehensive collapse of the AI sector is unlikely due to the current credit market conditions [2] Group 2: Market Risks and Dollar Strength - The immediate risk for investors is not a bubble burst but rather an unexpected strengthening of the dollar, with a consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" being a significant vulnerability [1][4] - If the dollar index experiences a chaotic rebound and surpasses the critical level of 102, it could trigger a collective risk-averse response among investors [4] Group 3: Asset Performance and Market Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold has been the best-performing asset with a gain of 41.3%, while international stocks rose by 24.7%, and the dollar index fell by 9.2% [4] - Recent EPFR data shows a continued inflow of global funds into various assets, indicating that investors remain optimistic and are actively allocating to risk assets despite discussions of potential market corrections [3] Group 4: Gold's Position in Asset Management - Although gold is currently viewed as "overbought" from a tactical perspective, it remains a "low allocation" asset in both private and institutional asset management, with only 0.4% and 2.4% allocations respectively [5]

造成这一回调的主要推手是美元的反弹，美元指数周三上涨约0.65%，升至近两周高位，这使得以 美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者变得更加昂贵，进而压制了需求。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，美联储降息周期已然开启，且市场预期年内还将继续降息两次， 这为金银价格构成了核心驱动力。"不过，贵金属价格在连续冲高后本身存在技术性回调压力。近期多 位美联储官员释放鹰派信号，若鹰派言论或风险事件引发多头获利了结，上述因素形成共振，可能加剧 短期波动。" 顾冯达认为。 广州日报讯 （全媒体记者 林晓丽）与美元资产有着"跷跷板效应"的黄金，在美联储降息后多次创 历史新高，伦敦金现在周二触及3791.08美元创历史新高。截至9月25日18:00，伦敦金现报价3757.12美 元/盎司，日内涨幅接近0.4%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected. The US retail data exceeded expectations, and the employment market improved, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. In China, economic indicators in August generally declined, increasing the need for timely policy reinforcement [3][11]. - Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc ores continued to diverge. The processing fee for domestic ores remained stable, while that for imported ores increased rapidly. In September, there were more regular maintenance activities in smelters, and the monthly output of refined zinc was expected to remain above 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the improvement in the prices of black - series products drove the sales of galvanized pipes. The operating rates of some end - user enterprises increased, but there were still differences in orders among different industries. Social inventories decreased slightly due to the decline in zinc prices and pre - holiday stocking demand [4][11]. - Overall, the Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar pressured zinc prices. However, the increase in the operating rates of end - user enterprises, the enthusiasm for downstream price - fixing after the decline in zinc prices, and the pre - holiday stocking plans would limit the downward space of zinc prices [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,305 | 22,045 | - 260 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,956 | 2,898.5 | - 57.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.55 | 7.61 | 0.06 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 94,649 | 99,315 | 4,666 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 50,525 | 47,825 | - 2,700 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 154,200 | 158,500 | 4,300 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 50 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures changed to ZN2511 last week, with the price oscillating downward and breaking below 22,000 Yuan/ton. The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, but the rebound of the US dollar led to a withdrawal of long - position funds and a significant decline in zinc prices. The weekly decline was 1.28%. LME zinc first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 1.95% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price declined, downstream customers increased price - fixing, and traders also increased shipments. However, in the second half of the week, downstream purchasing weakened, and the spot premium remained at a small discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of September 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons. As of September 18, social inventory was 158,500 tons [8]. - In the macro aspect, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts within the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [8][9]. - In China, the industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the real - estate investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [10]. Industry News - SMM data showed that the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in the week of September 19 remained unchanged at 3,850 Yuan/metal ton, while the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 12.5 US dollars/dry ton to 111.25 US dollars/dry ton [13]. - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a financing of 200 million - 250 million US dollars and a concentrate purchase agreement for the Prieska project. The company plans to start production at the PCZM project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year after the two projects reach stable production [13]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of the two markets, inventory changes, processing fees for zinc ores, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises, which visually present the market situation [15][17][19][20].