【华通白银网8月26日讯】•金价继续试图收于3370美元上方。 •白银在获利回吐中回落。 •铂金未能收于1350美元上方，跌向1330美元水平。 黄金 尽管美元反弹且美国国债收益率上升，但金价仍有所上涨。 如果金价保持在3360美元上方，则将朝着8月高点3400美元左右前进。 截止北京时间09:40，华通现货白银定盘价报9311元。 白银网 白银 银价从近期低点强劲反弹后，交易者获利了结，导致银价走低。 如果银价能够收于39.00美元上方，则将朝着39.80-40.00美元阻力位前进。 铂金 铂金未能突破1345-1350美元强劲阻力位，并回落至1330美元水平。 跌破1330美元将推动铂金向1300-1305美元支撑位靠拢。 ...

摘要今日周二（8月26日)亚盘时段，黄金价格持续攀升，于欧洲早盘时段一举跃升至近两周以来的最高 点，达3,385美元。此番金价上扬，主要受两大因素驱动：其一为市场对美国政府可能干预美联储独立 性的担忧情绪升温；其二则是普遍预期美联储将在9月的政策会议上开启降息周期。 下方初步支撑位在3,325美元，若跌破，则可能延伸至3,285美元甚至3,270美元一线。整体来看，黄金短 期维持积极走势，但需关注上方压力区域。 黄金的上涨反映出市场对政策不确定性和降息预期的双重反应。在全球经济数据公布前，金价波动或将 加大。如果美联储释放更明确的宽松信号，金价有望突破3,400美元关口； 而到了本周后期，二季度GDP修正值与7月核心PCE物价指数也将相继出炉。倘若这些数据表现强劲， 或者通胀水平超出市场预期，那么美元有望获得提振，与此同时，黄金价格则可能面临一定的下行压 力。 值得关注的是，依据CME FedWatch工具的最新数据显示，当前市场预计美联储在9月降息25个基点的概 率高达84.3%，相较于一个月前的61.9%，这一概率有了显著提升。这种市场预期进一步增强了黄金作 为无息资产的投资吸引力。 【最新现货黄金行情解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown resilience recently, with a 3.4% increase in July, ending a streak of declines, despite a disappointing non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 2.7% in July, breaking a six-month downward trend [1] - Emerging market currencies, represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, fell by 1.2% [1] - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated approximately 9.5% this year, leading Asian currencies, while the South Korean won has risen nearly 6% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The rebound of the dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months [1] - Barclays Bank has advised clients to avoid shorting the dollar against other Asian currencies [1] - Fidelity International noted that prolonged high US interest rates reduce the attractiveness of borrowing dollars for arbitrage trading [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Currency Dynamics - The volatility of emerging market currencies is at its lowest in a year, which diminishes demand for Asian currencies in favor of higher-yielding European and Latin American currencies [2] - The average interest rate differential for Asian currencies is negative 1.1%, indicating higher holding costs compared to potential returns from holding dollars [5] - Latin American currencies have a positive interest rate differential of 3.7%, while European and African currencies have a positive differential of 1.1% [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to impact the attractiveness of emerging market currencies, despite some agreements reached with major trading partners [6] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor influencing the dollar's trajectory [6]

Group 1 - The core message indicates that the US dollar is entering a phase of uncertainty, driven by recent events including disappointing employment data, sudden resignations within the Federal Reserve, and political interventions affecting economic data credibility [1][3][4] - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant miss against expectations, with downward revisions for May and June, raising the urgency for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged to 84%, with market participants pricing in two cuts for the year and a 40% chance of a third cut [3] Group 2 - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler opens the door for potential political influence over monetary policy, threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director by President Trump, citing data manipulation, raises concerns about the credibility of official economic indicators [3][4] - The recent rebound of the dollar appears weak, as it is increasingly influenced by political actions rather than economic fundamentals, with the dollar's status as a safe haven being challenged [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly retreated but remain stable near a one-month high, influenced by the recovery of the US dollar and upcoming economic events [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of the week, trading volume for gold investments has significantly increased, with prices breaking out of a narrow trading range that persisted since early July [1] - The current gold price movement is primarily driven by the US dollar, which is expected to face limited rebound potential due to approaching tariff deadlines and policy uncertainties related to the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The deadline for additional tariffs in the US on August 1 is creating a market environment that supports gold prices, as any potential recovery in the dollar is likely to be constrained [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the recent inflation data may validate the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, indicating that the current rebound of the US dollar is unlikely to be sustained [1] Group 2 - The US dollar experienced a slight decline against the euro and yen after reaching multi-week highs, as inflation pressures intensified due to tariff policies, leading investors to slightly reduce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding stated that the rise in inflation related to tariff-affected goods supports the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, while the continued slowdown in service-related inflation should support rate cuts in September and beyond [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming PPI data release to assess whether price pressures are genuinely beginning to rise [1] - Deutsche Bank forex analyst Michael Pfister noted that attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence by Trump are unlikely to cease, and given his demand for a 300 basis point rate cut, a 25 basis point cut is unlikely to satisfy him, suggesting that the dollar's current rebound may not last long [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a rebound in the US dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the long term, despite potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index outperformed European stock markets in June, reversing a trend of underperformance over the previous five months [1] - The yield premium on long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased from high levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - The current market order is perceived as more stable compared to the period following the large-scale tariff policies introduced in April [1] - Investors seem to believe that the impacts of US policies may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar over the next 12 months, although there is room for further short-term corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US dollar, highlighting the divergence between a weakening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, suggesting caution in interpreting these signals as indicative of a broader trend towards de-dollarization [2]. Group 1: Conceptual Clarification - Two key concepts are defined: de-dollarization transactions, which involve selling dollar assets and reflect a contraction of US asset exposure, and weak dollar transactions, which do not require reducing dollar asset exposure but rather increasing short positions on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Background Context - Background 1: Since the strong dollar cycle began in 2014-2015, overseas institutions have maintained dollar exposure to benefit from both US Treasury yield spreads and dollar appreciation. By 2024-2025, major global pension funds have reduced their dollar hedging ratios to historical lows, indicating a significant dollar exposure [4]. - Background 2: There is a positive correlation between the dollar hedging ratios of pension funds and exchange rate volatility; higher volatility leads to stronger hedging demand [4]. Group 3: Current Analysis - Following the implementation of equal tariffs on April 3, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly. For institutions with large dollar exposures, there are two strategies: de-dollarization transactions or weak dollar transactions. The article leans towards weak dollar transactions as the primary reality, noting no significant outflows from US equities or bonds and a rise in speculative short positions on the dollar [5]. Group 4: Future Predictions - To predict the future of the dollar, two questions are posed: whether the short positions on the dollar have been fully covered and the structure of the holders of these short positions. Current data suggests that while some institutions have raised their hedging ratios, the momentum for covering short positions may have peaked, indicating a potential end to rapid dollar depreciation [9][10]. - The concentration of dollar short positions is at a historical low, suggesting a fragile trading structure. If the US economy remains stable and tech stocks perform well, there may be a risk of a rebound in the dollar as volatility decreases [10]. - Overall, the macro environment is characterized as "internal stability with external changes," with the narrative of de-dollarization being misinterpreted. The article concludes that the weakening of the dollar is nearing its end, with potential for a period of volatility or even a rebound [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures prices have risen for the second consecutive day, driven by a weaker dollar and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, with a daily increase of 1.7% to $3362.50 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The demand for gold remains strong due to persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, despite a recovery in market risk appetite [1] - The weakening of the dollar has further enhanced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Investment Caution - Analysts warn investors to remain cautious as the dollar is currently in a severely oversold condition, which could lead to a potential rebound [1] - A rebound in the dollar could increase the purchasing cost of dollar-denominated commodities and may also make the dollar itself a competing safe-haven choice against gold [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following the Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels[12] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, which may lead to short-term pressure on previously leading currencies and markets like Europe and Japan[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US economy shows resilience, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[31] - Inflation expectations have been revised upwards, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% for 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year[28] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, have contributed to market volatility and risk premiums in oil prices, with a $10 premium observed in crude oil prices[12] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, impacting risk appetite and commodity prices, necessitating close monitoring of developments[39]