Group 1: Tariff Policy - The actual average import tariff rate in the U.S. increased by only 6.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, which is significantly lower than market expectations [1] - The changes in the U.S. import structure and the low proportion of taxable goods are the main reasons for the weaker-than-expected tariff enforcement [1] - In the second half of the year, the average import tariff rate is expected to rise further due to the implementation of new tariff rates and gradual enforcement of industry tariffs [1] Group 2: Import Costs and Price Dynamics - The U.S. import price index, which reflects the dollar prices paid by importers excluding tariffs, shows no significant decline in import costs for goods other than energy and food since the implementation of equivalent tariffs in April [2] - U.S. companies are currently bearing about 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers are responsible for less than 40% [2] - As inventory is gradually consumed and trade policy uncertainty decreases, companies may continue to raise prices, although consumer sensitivity to prices may lead to companies absorbing a portion of the tariff costs [2] Group 3: Consumer Inflation - Goods such as auto parts, new cars, clothing, and furniture have a high dependency on imports, but the transmission of tariffs to prices in these categories remains unclear [3] - If the average import tariff rate in the U.S. rises by 10% this year, it could push the year-on-year growth rate of PCE to 3.1% and core PCE to 3.4%, assuming stable demand [3] - The "slow heating" inflation provides the Federal Reserve with room for a rate cut in September, but the uncertainty remains regarding the possibility of consecutive rate cuts thereafter [3]