Group 1 - The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased by 0.1% in July 2025, reaching 98.7, following a 0.3% decline in June. The cumulative decline from January to July was 2.7%, significantly higher than the 1.0% drop from July of the previous year to January [1] - Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at the Conference Board, noted that consumer pessimism regarding business prospects and weak new orders continue to weigh on the index. However, stock prices remain a significant positive support for the LEI [1] - Despite the negative growth rate over six months, there was an improvement in July, although it is not sufficient to avoid signaling a potential economic recession. The Conference Board does not currently expect a recession but anticipates an economic slowdown in the second half of 2025, with tariffs' negative impacts gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2 - The US Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.2% in July, reaching 114.9, while remaining unchanged in June. The cumulative growth from January to July was 0.9%, surpassing the previous six months' growth of 0.6% [2] - The CEI consists of four components: non-farm employment, personal income (excluding transfer payments), manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, which are critical indicators for assessing the risk of a recession. In July, three of these indicators improved, except for industrial production [2] - The US Lagging Economic Index (LAG) remained unchanged at 119.9 in both June and July, with a cumulative growth of 0.9% from January to July, reversing the previous six months' decline of 0.1% [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国会议委员会6月最新发布的数据显示，2025年5月，美国领先经济指数(LEI)环 比小幅下滑0.1%，降至99.0点(2016年为基准值100)，延续了4月1.4%(由初值1.0%下修)的大幅跌势。数 据显示，LEI在截至5月的六个月内累计下降2.7%，跌幅明显高于前一阶段的1.4%，表明美国经济增长 势头正在持续减弱。 美国会议委员会商业周期指标高级经理Justyna Zabinska-La Monica表示："美国5月LEI再次下滑，虽然 跌幅不大，由于4月数据下修幅度显著，加上本月继续回落，使得该指数六个月的变动率进一步转负， 正式触发了经济衰退预警信号。"她指出，5月股市在4月回调后反弹，对LEI形成了主要正向拉动；然 而，消费者信心持续低迷、制造业新订单疲软、初请失业金人数连续第二个月增加，以及新屋建筑许可 下滑等负面因素，共同抵消了股市反弹带来的正面影响，令LEI整体仍呈现下行趋势。 与此形成对比的是，同期美国同步经济指数(CEI)在5月环比微升0.1%，至115.1点，延续了4月的0.2%涨 势。2024年11月至2025年5月期间，该指数累计增长1.3%，是此前六个月(2 ...