Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《预计 7 月贷款需求回落、社融增速 平稳增长》 2025-08-10 《美国 7 月 CPI 前瞻：商品价格抬升 或推动 CPI 环比走高》 宏观深度报告 20250813 "十五五"期间名义 GDP 增速 5.5%或是重 要目标 2025 年 08 月 13 日 2025-08-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：我国 2035 年的远景目标之一是"人均 GDP 达到中等发达国 家水平"，要实现这一目标，需要未来十年名义 GDP 增速不低于 5.4%。 但过去 8 个季度的名义 GDP 增速低于实际 GDP 增速，因此，十五五期 间名义 GDP 增速可能会放在更重要的位置，比如设定年均增速不低于 5.5%的目标。名义 GDP 增速回升的关键是物价。如果 GDP 平减指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy stance is deemed "appropriate" by the President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - There is heightened uncertainty surrounding inflation and immigration [1] - Signs indicate that inflation is affecting certain categories of goods [1] - The overall economic situation in the United States remains strong [1] Group 2: GDP Forecast - Actual GDP growth is expected to slow to approximately 1% by 2025 [1]