上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月31日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计691638千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少64116千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报18518元/千克，最高触及18875元/千克，最低触及16870 元/千克，截止收盘报17074元/千克，下跌4.27%。 根据周二公布的会议纪要，美联储本月召开会议决定降息时，一些官员表示不愿在近期支持进一步放宽 政策，这表明在明年1月的下次会议上，进一步降息可能会面临阻力。会议纪要显示，由于物价上涨的 持续时间比美联储预期的要长，降息的决定变得越来越艰难。自12月会议以来，更多经济数据已经发 布，显示强劲的消费者支出帮助推动了强劲的经济增长，尽管失业率略有上升。定于下个月发布的新数 据可能会重塑美联储官员在1月下旬举行利率会议前的想法。 美联储会议纪要的工作人员经济展望提到，与10月份会议准备的预测相比，总体而言，到2028年，实际 GDP增速预计将略有加快，这主要反映了金融市场状况预计将提供更大的支持，以及潜在产出增长预期 有所增强。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 ...

今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于17836一线下方，今日开盘于18518元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报17407元/千克，下跌2.41%，最高触及18875元/千克，最低下探17333元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 因此，预计失业率将在今年之后逐步下降，并在2027年达到略低于工作人员估计的自然失业率的水平。 总体而言，工作人员对2025年和2026年的通胀预测略低于10月份会议上提出的预测，但对2027年和2028 年的预测则与之前类似。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周二看到了18650，继续看涨，等待节后走势。市场波动性已显著加剧，沪银溢价收敛至1340元/ 克，国内情绪依旧高涨。沪银主力合约参考运行区间17100-19300区间。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美联储会议纪要的工作人员经济展望提到，与10月份会议准备的预测相比，总体而言，到2028年，实际 GDP增速预计将略有加快，这主要反映了金融市场状况预计将提供更大的支持，以及潜在产出增长预期 有所增强。 2025年之后，随着高关税带来的负面影响减弱，以及财政政策和金融市场状况继续支 ...

美联储会议纪要的工作人员经济展望提到，与10月份会议准备的预测相比，总体而言，到2028年，实际 GDP增速预计将略有加快，这主要反映了金融市场状况预计将提供更大的支持，以及潜在产出增长预期 有所增强。2025年之后，随着高关税带来的负面影响减弱，以及财政政策和金融市场状况继续支持支 出，预计到2028年，GDP增速将保持在潜在增长率之上。因此，预计失业率将在今年之后逐步下降，并 在2027年达到略低于工作人员估计的自然失业率的水平。总体而言，工作人员对2025年和2026年的通胀 预测略低于10月份会议上提出的预测，但对2027年和2028年的预测则与之前类似。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current low price levels are closely related to the relatively weak domestic demand, and the next phase will focus on boosting internal demand and stabilizing prices, which will positively impact the stabilization of CPI [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - Throughout the first eleven months of the year, there were six months with negative year-on-year CPI growth, leading to an average CPI that remained flat compared to the previous year [2]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year in November, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [2][3]. Group 2: Food Prices Impact - The rise in food prices was a significant factor contributing to the increase in CPI in November, with seasonal growth in food prices driving the year-on-year CPI growth [3]. - The impact of food prices on CPI shifted from a negative contribution of -0.54 percentage points in the previous month to a positive contribution of 0.04 percentage points in November [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts caution that the recent rise in CPI should not be oversimplified as a sign of economic recovery, as the supply-demand relationship indicates a significant imbalance with supply being forced to contract [4]. - The overall economic cycle is characterized by demand contraction leading to supply adjustments and declining economic growth, which further exacerbates demand contraction [4]. - The core CPI's upward trend suggests some improvement in domestic consumption demand, but the foundation for sustained improvement remains fragile, requiring ongoing policy support [4]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The adjustment of the CPI growth target from around 3% to 2% reflects a more realistic approach given the current economic conditions, aiming to avoid deflation [5]. - The lower CPI target is seen as a benchmark rather than a ceiling, indicating a policy effort to bridge the gap between nominal and real GDP growth [5]. - Looking ahead to 2026, maintaining stable price growth will remain a key macroeconomic policy goal, with various initiatives expected to support CPI recovery [5].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a growth rate increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Despite the low CPI growth throughout the year, the positive signal is that both October and November saw positive year-on-year CPI growth, with November's core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% [2][3] Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI growth has been low overall this year, with six months experiencing negative year-on-year growth, leading to an average CPI that is flat compared to the previous year [2] - The government's target for CPI growth this year is set at around 2%, which is lower than the previous four years' target of around 3% and the lowest since 2004 [5] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in food prices is a significant factor contributing to the rise in CPI for November, with seasonal price increases playing a role [3] - The current economic environment shows a mismatch between supply and demand, with supply being forced to contract in response to shrinking demand, leading to a cycle of economic slowdown [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's upward trend indicates improving domestic consumption demand, the foundation for sustained improvement remains fragile, requiring ongoing policy support [4] - The adjustment of the CPI growth target to around 2% reflects a realistic approach given the current economic conditions, aiming to avoid deflation [5]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes indicate a slowdown in actual GDP growth during the first half of the year [1] - Labor market indicators suggest a gradual cooling without any signs of sharp deterioration [1] - Consumer price inflation has risen since the beginning of the year, maintaining a high level [1] Economic Indicators - The estimated overall inflation rate based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September is 2.8% [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, excluding energy and most food price fluctuations, is also estimated at 2.8% for the same period [1] - The overall PCE inflation rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points compared to a year ago, while the core PCE inflation rate remains unchanged from the previous year [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - To reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, the official interpretation corresponds to a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.7% or a real GDP growth rate of 4.16% in the next 10 years. The lower - bound requirements for the real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are around 4.5% and 4% respectively. The relationship between economic growth and interest rates is positive, but their relative positions are not fixed. Considering inflation, the nominal GDP growth rate in the next 10 years may range from 3% to 6%, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan may range from 1.2% to 2.4%. Based on the neutral interest rate theory, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center is 1.5%, and the low point can be lower. The economy may still be in a weak recovery this quarter, and the bond market is in a favorable position. With the upcoming implementation of the new regulations on fund sales, it is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long, and interest rates are expected to hit a new low by the end of the year [2]. - There are two ways to view China's economic growth rate in the next decade: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 and doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), corresponding to a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16% respectively. By back - calculation, the average annual GDP growth rates during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% [2]. - Comparing with overseas countries, interest rates are positively correlated with nominal GDP growth rates, but there is no consistent conclusion on their relative positions and the spread level, which reflects the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. Currently, the quarterly average of China's nominal GDP interest rate minus the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is about 2%, which is slightly higher than the overseas level this year but neutral compared to overseas history. Combining the golden rule and the neutral interest rate theory, China's actual situation is "real GDP growth rate - 4+1" [2]. - Assuming different inflation scenarios (negative, slightly positive, and normal), the nominal GDP growth rate may range from 3% to 6%. From the lower - bound perspective, if the nominal GDP decreases by 1 percentage point, the interest rate decline should be less than 1 percentage point, with the interest rate lows during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. From the upper - bound perspective, considering the relative position between the nominal GDP high point in 2021 and the interest rate, the interest rate high point is about 2.4% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Potential Growth Rate and Appropriate Interest Rate Level 1.1 Future Growth Rates in the Next Two Five - Year Plans - Referring to the 2035 long - term goal, two assumptions are considered: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 by 2035, with a 3.90% annual compound growth rate of per - capita nominal GDP in the next 10 years; doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), with a 4.36% annual compound growth rate of per - capita real GDP. Considering the population decline, the average annual GDP growth rate requirements by 2035 are a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16%. The lower - bound requirements for the average annual real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% respectively [6][7][8] 1.2 Relationship between Economy and Interest Rates - **Overseas Comparison**: Static analysis shows a significant positive correlation between GDP growth rates and broad - spectrum interest rates. Dynamically, the centers of nominal GDP growth rates and interest rates are not completely consistent. The relative position between interest rates and nominal GDP depends on monetary policy goals and central bank attitudes, reflecting the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. There is no unified conclusion on the appropriate spread between nominal GDP growth rates and long - term interest rates. Different periods in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have different spreads. In China, long - term interest rates are always lower than the nominal GDP level, showing financial repression, and the spread has been compressing in the long - term but fluctuates annually. In the short - term, the spread is positively correlated with the nominal GDP growth rate [12][13][17] - **Theoretical Level**: Based on the "golden rule" of economic growth theory, the long - term interest rate should be slightly lower than or equal to a country's GDP growth rate. Currently, LPR and general loan interest rates are comparable to the GDP growth rate, while the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is significantly lower. According to the neutral interest rate theory, emerging market countries' neutral interest rates are about 4 percentage points lower than the GDP growth rate, and nominal interest rates need to add 2% inflation expectations. In China, the long - term interest rate is measured by "real GDP growth rate - 3", indicating that the real GDP growth rate may not reflect the potential growth rate or the inflation expectation is about 1%. Assuming a 4.5% real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter, the long - term interest rate center can be estimated at 1.5% [22] 1.3 Impact of Declining Economic Growth on Interest Rates - Considering different inflation scenarios (inflation returning to 1 - 2% or higher, 0 - 1%, and remaining negative), the nominal GDP growth rate will change accordingly, and interest rates will fluctuate with the nominal GDP growth rate. In the most optimistic scenario for the bond market during the 15th Five - Year Plan, if the nominal and real GDP growth rate centers decline by 0.5 percentage points, the long - term bond interest rate decline will be less than 0.5 percentage points, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is unlikely to be lower than 1.2%. In the pessimistic scenario, if the nominal GDP rebounds, and assuming a 6% rebound high point, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate high point will be below 2.4%. According to the neutral interest rate theory, if the real GDP growth rate center reaches 4%, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center can gradually decline to 1% [24][25] 2. Central Bank Bond Purchases and Bond Market Interest Rates - From November 3rd to 7th, the yield of the 10Y active Treasury bond fluctuated upward. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1.88BP to 1.81%, and the 10 - year national development bond yield increased by 2.35BP to 1.95%. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond term spread narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, while the 1 - year and 10 - year national development bond term spread remained at 33.68BP. Various factors such as central bank reverse - repurchase net withdrawal, bond purchase announcements, stock market fluctuations, and policy rumors affected the bond market during the week [27][28][29] 3. Decline in Wealth Management Product Scale - As of November 2nd, the wealth management product scale was 32.52 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 74.79 million yuan. From October 27th to November 2nd, the new - issue wealth management product scale was 254.44 million yuan. In November, the scale of fixed - income products decreased. By product type, cash - management products decreased by 76 million yuan, fixed - income products decreased by 290 million yuan, and others had different changes. By product risk, low - risk and medium - low - risk products decreased, while medium - risk and medium - high - risk products had small increases. The net - break rate decreased last week. As of November 5th, the 7 - day average annualized yields of money funds and cash - management products were 1.08% and 1.3% respectively [33][34] 4. Decline in Duration and Stable Disagreement Degree - From November 3rd to 7th, the duration of public funds decreased by 0.04 to 2.38 compared to October 31st, with a weekly average of 2.41. The public fund duration disagreement degree on November 7th remained the same as on October 31st at 0.36 [42]

Group 1: Gold and Jewelry Market - On November 3, multiple gold and jewelry merchants raised prices, with Shenzhen's Shui Bei gold market seeing a price increase of over 50 yuan per gram in a single day. Chow Tai Fook Jewelry announced a price hike for some products starting November 3 due to increased costs from gold-related tax policies, with 24K gold jewelry priced at 1259 yuan per gram, up 61 yuan from the previous day [2] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin dropping below $105,400, a decline of over $5,000 or nearly 5% from its daily high. Ethereum also fell by 9%, breaking the critical support level of $3,600, down approximately 25% from its high of $4,885 on August 22. Data from Coinglass indicated that over $1.2 billion worth of positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with more than $1.1 billion from long positions [2] Group 3: Economic Policies and Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won, valid for five years and extendable by mutual consent [2] - The Ministry of Finance established a new Debt Management Department responsible for formulating and implementing domestic debt management policies, monitoring government debt, and mitigating hidden debt risks [2] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - Guangdong Province announced an additional 3.5 billion yuan to promote consumption, including subsidies for products like drones and fitness equipment. New car purchase subsidies can reach up to 5,000 yuan per vehicle, while home appliance subsidies can be as high as 1,000 yuan per item [3] - The Ministry of Natural Resources reported that China's marine economy showed steady growth in the first three quarters, with a marine GDP of 7.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [3] Group 5: Financial Sector Developments - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) announced plans to establish an office in Hong Kong to meet its growing business needs [4] - Goldman Sachs' China research team upgraded its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, predicting an annual export increase of 5-6% and raising the 2025 real GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5% [4] Group 6: ETF Market Expansion - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the issuance of the China Universal Technology 50 ETF, marking the re-entry of the company into the ETF market after 14 years [5] - The ETF market has seen a significant increase in scale, with an additional 2 trillion yuan in the first ten months, driven by structural market trends and strong performance in thematic ETFs [8]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) has shown strong resilience in China's macroeconomic performance despite facing complex internal and external challenges, with nominal GDP expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by the end of this period, an increase of over 35 trillion yuan compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][5] - During the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP experienced an average annual real growth rate of 5.5% and a nominal growth rate of 6.9%, with the nominal GDP growth rate projected to be around 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [3][5][6] - The economic growth achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have laid a solid material foundation for modernizing the economy and have provided strong support for stabilizing employment and improving people's livelihoods [4][5] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for achieving the strategic vision of reaching a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, with a minimum nominal GDP average growth rate requirement of 5% [9][10][14] - The core guiding principle for economic growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve a per capita GDP of 27,000 USD by 2035, reflecting a shift from focusing on total GDP growth to per capita income improvement [10][12][14] - To meet the 2035 target, the nominal GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should ideally be around 6%, with a minimum requirement of 5%, depending on factors such as actual GDP growth, price levels, and exchange rate fluctuations [14][16][18] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should consider setting clear economic growth targets to address demand insufficiency and promote supply-demand balance, which is essential for achieving full employment and improving living standards [19][20] - A comprehensive target system around nominal GDP growth should be established, including a core target of 5% nominal GDP growth and 4.8% real GDP growth, alongside specific goals for consumption and investment growth [21][22][23] - Policies should focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment, to ensure necessary growth rates are met [23][25][26]

Economic Overview - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025), China's nominal GDP is expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, an increase of over 35 trillion yuan compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The average annual growth rate of real GDP from 2021 to 2024 is projected at 5.5%, while nominal GDP is expected to grow at an average of 6.9% [3] - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," nominal GDP growth is anticipated to be lower than real GDP growth, indicating a need for price level recovery [4] Future Growth Targets - To achieve the goal of reaching a per capita GDP of 27,000 USD by 2035, the average annual nominal GDP growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) should be at least 5% [5] - The ideal target for nominal GDP growth could be around 6%, providing a buffer against uncertainties such as exchange rate fluctuations [5] - The average annual growth rate of real GDP should ideally be maintained at approximately 4.8% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [46] Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to set clear economic growth targets during the "15th Five-Year Plan" to address demand insufficiency and promote supply-demand balance [50] - A comprehensive target system is proposed, including a nominal GDP growth target of 5%, real GDP growth of 4.8%, and a shift in overall price growth from negative to positive [52] - Specific targets for consumption and income growth include a 6.5% annual increase in resident consumption and a 6% increase in resident income [52]