Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that from mid-July to the end of August, all Federal Reserve districts experienced price increases related to tariffs [1] - The report highlights that many districts reported significant impacts of tariffs on input prices, with insurance, utilities, and tech services seeing price hikes [1] - Companies have largely passed on the increased costs to consumers, and there are widespread expectations of continued price increases in the coming months [1] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Due to increased economic uncertainty and rising tariff rates, wage growth for many households has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [1] - Employment levels remained largely unchanged in 11 districts, with one district reporting a slight decline; seven districts showed reluctance to hire due to weakened demand or increased uncertainty, while two districts reported increased layoffs [1] Tariff Rates - The U.S. government has been imposing higher tariffs on trade partners, with the latest announcement on July 31 detailing tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% for 69 trading partners [2] - As of August 7, the trade-weighted average tariff rate for all products imported into the U.S. rose significantly to 20.11%, compared to just 2.44% at the beginning of the year [2]

金十数据6月12日讯，中金公司发文称，往前看，我们倾向于未来几个月会看到美国一轮物价上涨，但 与2021-2022年不同，此轮涨价更具有结构性和一次性特征，并非全面通胀。对于美联储而言，温和的 通胀数据是个好消息，但官员们也不会因为单个月的数据就做出重大决策。由于当前劳动力市场仍然稳 定，美联储不需要急于降息，官员们或更倾向于多看几组数据再做决定。下周，美联储将迎来6月议息 会议。我们认为，相较于3月未见"对等关税"之时的点阵图，6月FOMC可能会小幅上调通胀预测，但由 于非农就业韧性以及关税降温，联储对于增长的判断可能比3月更乐观。由此，鲍威尔在这次会议上的 态度可能偏鹰，这或让期待美联储降息的投资者感到失望。 中金：鲍威尔在6月议息会议上的态度可能偏鹰 ...