从通胀水平看，今年8月，日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于上月 的3.1%，自去年11月以来涨幅首次降至3%以下，这与日本政府实施夏季电费和燃气费补贴有关。但食 品价格上涨仍是拉动日本物价上涨的最主要原因。然而有分析人士认为，食品价格上涨是供给侧的临时 性因素所导致的，如大米价格上涨、日元贬值导致进口食品价格上涨、原材料价格上涨等，今年下半年 起日本物价涨势将趋于放缓，这也给日本央行加息进程带来了不确定因素。 当前，日本政局处于动荡阶段，伴随现任日本首相、自民党总裁宣布辞职并不再参选，自民党新任总裁 将在高市早苗、小泉进次郎等5人间产生。然而，由于自民党领导下的执政联盟在参众两院均为少数 派，日本首相并非已是其囊中之物，有观点认为，为了在首相选举中获得在野党的支持，确保首相宝座 不会旁落，新任自民党总裁将以货币财政等领域的政策合作为重要"诱饵"与在野党谈合作，在此背景 下，日本央行的政策独立性将遭受考验。 （文章来源：经济日报） 值得关注的是，在此次货币政策会议上，有关维持政策利率不变的决定并非全票通过，有两名委员提出 了将利率上调至0.75%的提案，理由是"物价稳定目标"已 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 在最新发布的《经济展望中期报告》中，OECD指出，美国加征关税的全面影响仍待逐步显现。截至目 前，企业主要通过压缩利润率和动用库存缓冲来消化冲击。许多企业在特朗普政府加征关税前大量囤积 商品，导致美国商品进口有效关税率在8月底升至19.5%——这是1933年大萧条以来的最高水平。 "随着企业耗尽为应对关税而积累的库存，且更高关税持续实施，这些措施的全面影响将更加清 晰。"OECD秘书长马蒂亚斯·科尔曼（Mathias Cormann）在新闻发布会上表示。 全球增长预期上调，但2026年风险加剧 OECD将2025年全球经济增速预期从6月预测的2.9%上调至3.2%，但维持2026年2.9%的增速预测不变。 库存累积带来的短期提振效应正在消退，而高关税预计将拖累投资和贸易增长。 "贸易壁垒进一步增加或政策不确定性延长，可能通过推高生产成本、抑制投资和消费，导致经济增长 放缓。"科尔曼警告称。 具体来看： 美国：2025年经济增速预计从去年的2.8%放缓至1.8%（高于6月预测的1.6%），2026年进一步降至 1.5%。AI投资热潮、财政支持和美联储降息将部分抵消高关税、移 ...

卢拉认为，美方举措在经济上没有理由，表明其有政治动机。他援引美国高级官员观点称，美国政府正 在利用关税和《马格尼茨基法案》为巴西前总统博索纳罗寻求豁免。巴西联邦最高法院11日宣布博索纳 罗策划政变罪名成立，获刑27年零3个月。 巴西总统卢拉当地时间14日在美国《纽约时报》发表署名文章说，巴西愿意与美国就任何能够互利互惠 的议题进行谈判，但巴西的民主和主权不在谈判范围之内。 卢拉首先批评特朗普政府对巴西商品加征50%关税。他表示，美国推动就业回流和再工业化无可厚非， 但对其他国家采取单边行动是"开出了错误的药方"。对巴西征关税是"被误导"和"无逻辑"的。他指出， 美国在过去15年同巴西的双边贸易中累计顺差达4100亿美元，近75%的美国产品进入巴西时已免关税。 卢拉强调，当美国背弃与巴西延续了200多年的关系时，所有人都会受损。两国政府在拥有共同目标的 领域开展合作，不应被任何意识形态差异阻碍。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 针对美国指责巴西的数字监管，卢拉表示，特朗普政府指控巴西司法系统针对并审查美国科技公司，这 是"错误的"。卢拉表示，"将监管称为审查是不诚实的"。国内外所有数字平台在巴西适用同样的法律。 相关法 ...

记者手记｜慕尼黑车展上的美国关税"寒流" 9月的慕尼黑，展馆灯幕交错，人潮涌动。一辆辆汽车被灯光映得锃亮，电驱平台、自动驾驶等技术展 示轮番登场——两年一度的国际车展再次把这座城市推向全球汽车产业舞台中央。9日至14日，全球约 750家企业云集于此，一场关于技术、交流与未来出行的"嘉年华"如期上演。 然而，热闹并不等于无忧。走访多日，记者清晰感受到：伴随喧嚣的，还有一股由关税引发的"寒意"在 展馆弥漫。它鲜少被公开提及，却始终萦绕在展台之间——"关税"一词成了不少参展商的隐痛。 "欧洲的竞争力正承受巨大压力，美国关税已经让德国汽车工业蒙受损失。"开幕式上，德国汽车工业协 会主席希尔德加德·穆勒的这句话，道出行业当前最敏感、也最难以回避的现实。 德国汽车零部件供应商奇昊汽车的展台人头攒动。墙上贴着的展示图显示公司在欧洲、亚洲和北美开设 了约30家工厂，供应商遍布全球。当被记者问及美国加征关税的影响时，奇昊汽车全球传播与市场执行 副总裁安德烈亚斯·海涅直言："它们破坏了我们多年来建立的全球供应商网络。我们对关税真的非常不 满！" 这家家族企业自1895年起专注汽车钢铝结构件等汽车配件生产，有一半工厂位于美国、加拿 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that from mid-July to the end of August, all Federal Reserve districts experienced price increases related to tariffs [1] - The report highlights that many districts reported significant impacts of tariffs on input prices, with insurance, utilities, and tech services seeing price hikes [1] - Companies have largely passed on the increased costs to consumers, and there are widespread expectations of continued price increases in the coming months [1] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Due to increased economic uncertainty and rising tariff rates, wage growth for many households has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [1] - Employment levels remained largely unchanged in 11 districts, with one district reporting a slight decline; seven districts showed reluctance to hire due to weakened demand or increased uncertainty, while two districts reported increased layoffs [1] Tariff Rates - The U.S. government has been imposing higher tariffs on trade partners, with the latest announcement on July 31 detailing tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% for 69 trading partners [2] - As of August 7, the trade-weighted average tariff rate for all products imported into the U.S. rose significantly to 20.11%, compared to just 2.44% at the beginning of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Debao Group Holdings (08436) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was HKD 68.251 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [1] - Net profit was HKD 3.347 million, down 35.9% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.84 cents [1] Market Impact - The decline in revenue is attributed to U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese products several years ago, which affected the U.S. market [1] - Some U.S. customers have shifted their procurement from the group to non-Chinese suppliers, which requires time to adjust [1] - The situation worsened due to additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. at the beginning of the year [1]

Economic Growth - Japan's GDP for the second quarter grew at an annualized rate of 1.0%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4% and showing a revision from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1][4] - Business investment increased by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the market expectation of 0.7%, while private consumption saw a slight growth of 0.2% [3][4] Central Bank Implications - The strong economic performance may reinforce market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this year, with 42% of economists surveyed anticipating a rate hike in October [4][5] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated that if domestic demand remains stable, the central bank will continue to raise borrowing costs [4] Trade and Investment - Despite the uncertainties posed by U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate investment has shown steady growth, with large companies planning to increase investment by 11.5% this fiscal year, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.1% [6] - Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to economic growth, with actual exports increasing by 2% despite U.S. tariffs, as companies lowered sales prices to maintain market share [7] Consumer Spending - Private consumption accounts for nearly 60% of Japan's GDP, and despite ongoing inflation, its growth rate remains slightly above expectations, supported by robust wage growth from this year's salary negotiations [7][8] - Strong inbound tourism has also bolstered net exports, with foreign tourist spending increasing by 18% in the second quarter [7] Future Outlook - The third quarter data may better reflect the impact of tariff policies as initial shock effects dissipate, with ongoing risks including persistent inflation [7] - Companies have committed to wage increases exceeding 5%, which may support consumer spending in the coming months [8]

Core Insights - Germany's industrial output in June decreased by 1.9% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since May 2020, primarily due to external pressures such as U.S. tariffs [1] - The construction sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, while the energy sector grew by 3.1%. However, excluding these sectors, industrial output fell by 2.8% [1] - The machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food industries experienced significant declines in output, with decreases of 5.3%, 11%, and 6.3% respectively [1] - In the second quarter, Germany's industrial output decreased by 1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs noted that the initial recovery in the first quarter was influenced by preemptive purchasing due to tariff expectations, but this effect faded in the second quarter [1] - Analysts suggest that the latest industrial output data dampens expectations of a cyclical rebound in Germany's industrial sector, with U.S. tariffs expected to further hinder economic growth [1] Trade Insights - Germany's exports to the U.S. fell by 2.1% month-on-month in June, marking the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest level since February 2022 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, often referred to as the "Trump of Brazil," has stated that purchasing Russian oil could lead to potential tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazil [1] Group 1 - Bolsonaro's comments highlight the geopolitical implications of Brazil's potential oil purchases from Russia [1] - The statement reflects concerns over international trade relations and the influence of U.S. policies on Brazil's economic decisions [1]

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers' meeting in Canada focuses on the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly the tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1] - Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland emphasized the need to address fundamental issues such as manufacturing overcapacity, non-market behavior, and financial crimes [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen aims to encourage G7 allies to respond more effectively to China's economic policies during the meeting [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation that the G7 finance ministers will not announce a new trade agreement, as the U.S. administration prioritizes its own interests [1] - Support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are key topics, with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko advocating for stronger sanctions during the meeting [1] - The G7 finance ministers are anticipated to issue a statement supporting Ukraine against Russia, although the wording will be broad and not specific regarding sanctions [1]