Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term market is affected by the rebound of the US dollar index and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. However, the underlying logic of the long - term precious metals bull market remains intact. Central banks' gold purchases continue, the US inflation is sticky, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds may decline further. Silver is likely to have a supply - demand gap for the sixth consecutive year, and the price rebound elasticity is expected to be stronger than that of gold. [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metal Market Data - The domestic precious metal market was volatile on March 5, 2026. The settlement price of Shanghai gold rose 0.37% to 1151.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.05% to 21658 yuan/kilogram. The London gold and silver markets also rebounded after hitting the bottom. As of 16:00, the spot gold price in London was 5161.84 US dollars/ounce, and the spot silver price was 83.653 US dollars/ounce. [13] - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the uncertain prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to decline in the short term, with a short - selling strategy. The support level is 1050 - 1100 yuan/gram, and the pressure level is 1250 - 1300 yuan/gram. For silver, with the same influencing factors, it is also expected to decline in the short term, with a short - selling strategy. The support level is 17000 - 18000 yuan/kilogram, and the pressure level is 23000 - 24000 yuan/kilogram. [14] 2. Precious Metal - Related Macroeconomic Data - On January 28, 2026 (EST), the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive interest - rate cuts since September 2025. Powell indicated that if "tariff inflation" peaks and falls, policy can be further relaxed, and raising interest rates is not the basic assumption for the next step. [3] - On February 11, 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non - farm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, much higher than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%. [3] - US consumers expect the annual price increase in the next year to be 4.2%, the same as last month. The long - term inflation expectation for the next 5 - 10 years rose to 3.4%, higher than the previous 3.2%. The consumer confidence index in January rose to 54, and the consumer expectation index reached a five - month high. [4] - In December 2025, the US PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The core PCE increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, lower than the estimate of 3%. The annual GDP growth in 2025 was 2.2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. [4] - In December 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In January 2026, the US PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. [5] - On February 20, 2026, US President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on all imported goods for 150 days. On February 17, he announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, to be raised to 25% on June 1. He also said that a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran would soon take effect. [5][7] - In 2025, China's gold consumption was 950.096 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57%. Gold jewelry consumption was 363.836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.61%. Gold bars and coins consumption was 504.238 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.14%. Industrial and other gold consumption was 82.022 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32%. The annual increase in domestic gold ETFs in 2025 was 133.118 tons, a 149.91% increase from 2024. By the end of December, the domestic gold ETF position was 247.852 tons. [6] - In January 2026, China's central bank's gold reserves were reported at 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces. This was the 15th consecutive month of gold purchase since November 2024, but the increase in January was at a low level for the 11th consecutive month. The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, and its gold reserves will increase to 700 tons. [6] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only mentions related charts. 4. Precious Metal Options Data Analysis - In the long term, central banks' gold purchases will continue, investment demand remains strong, the US debt level is rising, the US dollar's credit is damaged, and the US dollar index is expected to enter a long - term downward channel. The monetary attributes of gold and silver are gradually returning. [39] - In the short term, concerns about US tariff increases have resurfaced, the precious metals market has ended consolidation and broken upward. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. The real interest rate of US Treasury bonds may decline further. Geopolitical conflicts may intensify. [39] - For option single - leg strategies, in the long term, one can try to buy a small amount of far - month deep - out - of - the - money gold and silver call options. In the next stage, the implied volatility of precious metal options is expected to gradually rise, and one can try to construct a long - straddle strategy to bet on the increase in volatility. [39]

Core Viewpoint - The research conducted by the New York Federal Reserve Bank indicates that approximately 90% of the additional costs from tariffs imposed by the U.S. government in 2025 will be borne by American consumers and businesses, contradicting the government's claim that "tariffs are paid by foreign exporters" [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers and Businesses - The average statutory tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to rise from 2.6% at the beginning of 2025 to 13% by the end of that year [1]. - From January to August 2025, U.S. importers and consumers will bear 94% of the new tariffs; this percentage decreases to 92% from September to October, and further to 86% in November [1]. - By the end of 2025, the average tariff rate of 13% will result in prices of affected imported goods being 11% higher than those of unaffected goods, indicating a significant economic burden on U.S. businesses and consumers [1]. Group 2: Supporting Research and Economic Implications - The findings are supported by a paper from Harvard University professor and former IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gopinath, which states that tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are almost entirely passed on to the prices of imported goods, with U.S. businesses and consumers absorbing most of the costs [1]. - The Mansfield Foundation's senior researcher, Bruce Klingner, notes that the 2025 tariffs equate to a tax of $1,000 per American household, highlighting the economic strain on families [2]. - Research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy indicates that 96% of the tariffs are effectively a consumption tax on imported goods, leading to a significant reduction in the variety and quantity of goods available to consumers [2].

Core Insights - The latest research from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that tariffs imposed by the U.S. are primarily borne by American businesses and consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - By 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports is projected to rise from 2.6% at the beginning of the year to 13% [2]. - Approximately 90% of the additional costs from tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and the EU are shouldered by U.S. consumers and businesses [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - Despite rising tariff rates, exporting countries have not reduced prices to offset the decline in U.S. demand; instead, exporters maintain prices and pass the tariff costs onto importers, leading to increased consumer prices [3]. - A report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy corroborates these findings, indicating that tariff costs are almost entirely transferred to U.S. import prices [3]. Group 3: Household Financial Impact - The Tax Foundation estimates that the increase in tariffs will raise average annual household expenditures by $1,000 in 2025 and further to $1,300 in 2026 [3]. - The economic benefits from tax cuts in the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill will be completely offset by the increase in household spending due to tariffs [6].

Core Insights - A recent study by New York Fed economists indicates that nearly 90% of the economic burden from tariffs imposed in 2025 will be borne by U.S. businesses and consumers [1] - The analysis, based on data up to November 2025, shows that approximately 94% of tariff costs were passed on to U.S. businesses and consumers in the first eight months of that year [1] - By November, the share of the burden on foreign exporters slightly increased, but the tariff pass-through rate remained high at 86% [1] Tariff Impact - The report highlights that a 10% tariff only resulted in a 0.6 percentage point decrease in foreign export prices, indicating a limited impact on exporters [1] - Following the announcement of significant import tariffs on April 2, 2022, the average tariff rate in the U.S. surged from 2.6% to 13%, with a notable spike due to high temporary tariffs on Chinese goods [1] - Despite tariff exemptions and supply chain adjustments reducing the actual tax burden, the economic impact is still primarily shouldered by the American public [1] Supply Chain Shifts - The high costs associated with tariffs have accelerated the shift of supply chains from China to countries like Mexico and Vietnam [1]

Core Insights - The additional costs from U.S. tariffs are primarily borne by American importers and consumers, rather than foreign exporters [1] - The study indicates that the impact of tariffs may manifest as rising consumer prices over time [1] - Foreign exporters have only absorbed about 4% of the burden from last year's tariff increases, while U.S. consumers and importers have shouldered 96% [1] Group 1 - The research analyzed $4 trillion worth of freight data from January 2024 to November 2025 [1] - Indian exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 24% in value and quantity, yet the prices remained unchanged [1] - The tariffs are effectively a consumption tax on Americans rather than a tax on foreign producers [1] Group 2 - The $200 billion in additional U.S. tariff revenue generated last year is almost entirely paid by Americans [1] - This situation may lead to an increase in inflation rates in the U.S. over time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The additional costs from U.S. tariffs are primarily borne by American importers and consumers, contradicting the U.S. government's claim that foreign exporters bear the burden [1] Group 1: Research Findings - The study analyzed over 25 million U.S. import shipping data, involving approximately $4 trillion [1] - By 2025, U.S. tariff revenue is expected to increase by about $200 billion, with foreign exporters only bearing around 4% of the tariff burden, while 96% is shouldered by U.S. importers and consumers [1] - Exporters did not lower prices to offset the impact of the new tariffs [1] Group 2: Long-term Implications - The U.S. tariff policy is likened to a consumption tax, with costs absorbed domestically, ultimately harming the U.S. economy [1] - Long-term effects include squeezed profit margins for U.S. companies and higher prices for U.S. consumers [1] - Exporting countries focused on the U.S. market may reduce exports to the U.S. and seek new markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is convening an emergency meeting to discuss the Greenland issue and the new tariff threats from U.S. President Trump [1] Group 1: EU Response - The EU will hold an emergency meeting on January 18 in Brussels with member state ambassadors to address the situation regarding Greenland and the tariffs [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced that starting February 1, a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods exported to the U.S. from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland [1] - The tariff rate is set to increase to 25% on June 1, contingent upon reaching an agreement for the "complete and total purchase of Greenland" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices influenced by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased tariffs in the U.S. [1][2] - On the 13th, the London spot gold price reached a historical high of $4059.84 per ounce during Asian trading hours, before stabilizing at $4047.30 per ounce, reflecting a 0.72% increase [1]. - Last week, international gold prices rose over 2%, with the New York Mercantile Exchange's gold futures main contract price increasing by 2.34% for the week [2]. Group 2 - Year-to-date, the New York Mercantile Exchange's gold futures main contract price has seen a cumulative increase of over 51%, marking 2023 as the year with the largest price increase since 1979 according to the World Gold Council [2]. - The strong demand for gold from central banks globally continues to support the rising prices amid ongoing economic uncertainties [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with London spot gold reaching a historical high of $4059.84 per ounce, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and increased tariffs in the U.S. [1] - As of October 13, the London spot gold price was reported at $4047.30 per ounce, reflecting a 0.72% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao reporting increases in gold prices per gram [2][3] Group 2 - International gold prices have surged over 2% in the past week, influenced by strong demand from central banks and ongoing uncertainties in the global economy [12] - The price of gold has increased by 123% since 2022, with a remarkable 53% rise in 2025 alone, indicating a strong upward trend [14] - Silver prices have also seen a significant increase, with a year-to-date rise of over 70%, surpassing gold's performance [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with London spot gold reaching a historical high of $4059.84 per ounce, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased tariffs in the U.S. [1] - As of October 13, the London spot gold price was reported at $4047.30 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.72% [1]. - Last week, international gold prices rose over 2%, influenced by strong demand from central banks, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing global economic uncertainties [2]. Group 2 - Year-to-date, the main futures contract for gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange has seen a cumulative increase of over 51%, marking 2023 as the year with the largest price increase since 1979 according to the World Gold Council [2].