1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On June 16, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,584, up 2.35%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,400, down 30 yuan/ton. The SF2509 contract closed at 5,292, up 2.04%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,190, up 50 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to low capacity utilization rates, but overall inventory remains high. The cost side shows an increase in imported manganese ore port inventory, and downstream pig iron production has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 430 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and - 170 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese; the Ningxia spot profit is - 430 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and - 400 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. The market should be treated as oscillating [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,584 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,292 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 617,093 hands, down 30,190 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 432,533 hands, down 3,514 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 26,834 hands, down 1,165 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 24,273 hands, down 2,222 hands. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 4 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. - SM仓单 was 96,168 sheets, down 1,783 sheets; SF仓单 was 15,193 sheets, down 35 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5,423 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 102 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The SM主力合约基差 was - 184 yuan/ton, down 138 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 31 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Manganese ore port inventory was 440.10 million tons, up 19.80 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise capacity utilization rate was 35.30%, up 0.27%; the silicon - iron enterprise capacity utilization rate was 31.35%, down 1.43%. - Manganese - silicon supply was 173,390 tons, up 1,505 tons; silicon - iron supply was 95,100 tons, down 2,200 tons. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; silicon - iron manufacturers' inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon - iron was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 122,153 tons, down 3,640 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 19,607.80 tons, down 716.90 tons. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, down 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, down 0.07%. - The monthly crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, up 0.531 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On June 13, US President Trump approved Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel. - Trump said Iran and Israel should reach an agreement and was willing to accept Putin as a mediator. - Xu Changming said that the demand for domestic passenger cars showed different stage - type characteristics before and after 2023, with consumption upgrading before 2023 and downgrading in 2024. The sales of models above 300,000 yuan had negative growth in the past two years, while the sales of models below 100,000 yuan increased by 51% in the first five months of this year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On June 16, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,292, up 2.04%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,190, up 50 yuan/ton. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased sharply, and factors such as the US tariff policy, fiscal gap, and the weakening of the US dollar and US debt credit have pushed up the gold price. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the cost support has weakened due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia, and the steel demand expectation is still weak. - On June 16, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,584, up 2.35%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,400, down 30 yuan/ton. At the end of May, the broad - money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year - on - year; the narrow - money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year - on - year. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to low capacity utilization rates, but overall inventory remains high. The cost side shows an increase in imported manganese ore port inventory, and downstream pig iron production has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as oscillating [2].