冲突烈度仍在升级！ 据央视新闻，当地时间3月3日，美国中央司令部对伊朗军事行动发布最新通报称，B-2和B-1轰炸机对伊朗境内 多个纵深导弹设施实施精确打击，B-52轰炸机编队也对弹道导弹阵地等发动空袭。 与此同时，以色列最新发出的威胁也引发各方高度关注。据新华社消息，当地时间4日，以色列国防部长卡茨 威胁称，任何成为伊朗最高领袖、对抗以色列和美国的人都将成为以色列的"清除目标"。卡茨当日在社交媒体 上说："无论他叫什么名字，身在何处，都将成为无可争议的清除目标。" 在中东紧张局势持续升级的背景下，日本央行行长植田和男在最新的讲话中表示，若经济预期达成将继续加 息。植田和男强调，正密切关注中东局势，冲突可能通过能源成本上升和市场波动对日本乃至全球经济产生巨 大影响。 美军出动B-52轰炸机 3月4日，据央视新闻，当地时间3月3日，美国中央司令部对伊朗军事行动发布最新通报称，美国中央司令部部 队与以色列一道，对伊朗实施了"压倒性、前所未有的"打击。 通报称，B-2和B-1轰炸机对伊朗境内多个纵深导弹设施实施精确打击。B-52轰炸机编队也对弹道导弹阵地等发 动空袭。 在"史诗怒火"行动开始72小时后，美军中央司令部 ...

此次美以联合对伊朗发布袭击正值美伊谈判之际，双方爆发军事冲突意味着谈判基本宣告 破裂，伊朗政权的内部稳定性较为脆弱，叠加美国对伊朗展开极限军事施压，导致区域局 势复杂程度显著加剧 伊朗问题的本质原因在于大国博弈，以色列亟待对伊朗采取强硬军事行动以转移国内舆论 压力并提升政府威望，特朗普政府倾向于将内部矛盾转移至外部，通过打击伊朗激发右翼 民族主义基本盘 短期看，伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡或对美国在中东的利益发动攻击，地区冲突成本或转 嫁给全球经济；长期看，中东地缘政治风险或进入不可控的高危区间，美国可能被迫从"离 岸平衡"重新转向深度地面介入 中东地缘政治风险升级或对全球原油供给造成严重扰动，国际油价短期内或出现大幅上涨， 国际投资者避险情绪显著攀升，黄金的避险属性得到进一步增强 美以联合突袭伊朗，中东地缘政治风 险陡增 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇、张敏 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 当地时间 2026 年 2 月 28 日，以色列宣布袭击伊朗，以色列国防部长称已对伊朗 发动"先发制人"打击，并宣布以色列全境进入紧急状态。据伊朗法尔斯通讯社报道， 多枚导弹击中德黑兰市中心多处目标。美联社表 ...

金价回升至5,200美元上方，因围绕美国贸易政策的不确定性和中东地缘政治风险继续支撑避险需求。 在早盘交易中，纽约黄金期货上涨0.7%，至每盎司5,212.10美元。三菱日联(MUFG)的Soojin Kim表 示："金价已稳定在每盎司5,000美元上方，收复了本月早些时候大幅回调所造成的一半以上跌幅。"她 称："不过，在劳动力市场数据走强和美联储官员发出谨慎信号后，市场预期美国利率可能在更长时间 内保持高位，这可能会限制无收益黄金的进一步上行空间。"与此同时，白银期货上涨3.8%，升破每盎 司90美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand structure and competitive landscape by 2026, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector. Market sentiment is shifting towards undervalued chemical equity assets, positively impacting commodity markets and driving up chemical futures prices [1]. Supply Side - As of January 30, domestic PX operating rates are at a historical high of 89.2%, with a weak maintenance schedule compared to previous years, and overseas plants planning to increase output, indicating a generally ample supply [1]. - The PX-MX price spread has strengthened, reaching a five-year high, driven by high profits encouraging factories to source MX for PX production [1]. - PTA processing fees averaged 359.7 RMB/ton in January, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, with processing fees recovering to a six-month high due to PX price increases lagging behind PTA [3]. Demand Side - As of January 30, terminal operating rates have declined, with the comprehensive operating rate for Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines at 34.0%, and the overall demand is expected to weaken as factories begin early holidays, averaging 30-40 days off [4]. - The polyester sector is facing a reduction in operating rates, with approximately 17.4% of national capacity planned for maintenance in January-February, leading to increased pressure on inventory levels post-holiday [6]. - Despite a decline in textile exports, there is resilience in some Southeast Asian orders, but overall domestic demand remains weak, with limited replenishment expected post-holiday [8][9]. Market Outlook - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production and declining terminal demand, leading to inventory accumulation pressures in the first quarter [9]. - The market anticipates that PTA futures prices will fluctuate, with mid-term investors advised to wait for a pullback to the 5000-5100 RMB/ton support area before entering long positions [9].

智通财经获悉，国际油价连续三日上扬，因美国总统特朗普警告伊朗要么签署核协议、要么面临军事打 击，这加剧了外界对中东地区可能陷入动荡并扰乱石油供应的担忧。 数据显示，WTI原油继前一交易日上涨1.3%、收于9月下旬以来最高水平后，价格继续向每桶64美元攀 升，布伦特原油徘徊在68美元附近。特朗普周三在社交媒体发文称，其下令调往该地区的美国军舰已做 好准备，必要时将"迅速、强力地"执行任务。 中东地区的原油供应量占全球约三分之一，若美国发起打击，该地区的原油运输将面临严重风险。伊朗 的反制措施还可能进一步扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的航运秩序——这片分隔伊朗与阿拉伯半岛的狭窄水道，是 油轮和液化天然气运输船驶向全球各地的必经之路，各类油气货物均通过该海峡完成国际运输。 特朗普此前已多次对伊发出警告，而近期的相关表态更多与伊朗政府武力镇压抗议活动相关，而非其核 活动。这位美国总统此前曾表示，今年6月美军针对伊朗三座设施发动的打击，已彻底摧毁伊朗的核计 划。 对此，伊朗方面回应称已准备好展开对话，但同时警告，若遭遇逼迫，将予以前所未有的强力反击。为 避免与美国爆发更多冲突，伊朗正加强与中东地区主要国家的外交互动。 期货频道更多独 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly following U.S. President Trump's warning to Iran regarding military action if a nuclear agreement is not signed [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil prices have increased by 1.3% in the previous trading session, reaching the highest level since late September, and are now approaching $64 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil is hovering around $68 per barrel [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - Trump's latest threats have injected a risk premium into oil prices, leading traders to buy call options to hedge against potential new conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, with the duration of this bullish trend reaching a 14-month high [3] - The Middle East accounts for approximately one-third of global crude oil supply, and any U.S. military action could severely disrupt oil transportation in the region [3] Group 3: Iran's Response and Diplomatic Efforts - Iran has expressed readiness for dialogue but warned of a strong retaliation if pressured, while also enhancing diplomatic interactions with key countries in the Middle East to avoid further conflicts with the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing narrow fluctuations due to a complex interplay of factors, including diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and changes in global liquidity conditions [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction remains a key variable influencing the dollar index, with recent FOMC meeting minutes revealing significant internal divisions among officials regarding the path for interest rate cuts in 2026 [3]. - Hawkish officials argue that core PCE inflation remains at 2.3%, above the 2% target, and advocate for limiting rate cuts to 50 basis points, while dovish officials suggest initiating cuts in the first half of the year, potentially totaling 75-100 basis points [3][4]. - Market consensus has shifted towards expectations of a more accommodative Fed, with a 62% probability of a rate cut by March 2026 and a 58% chance of a total cut of 75 basis points for the year, reflecting a growing belief in policy easing [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are providing support for the dollar index, with recent U.S. sanctions on Iran aimed at curbing its oil exports contributing to increased risk premiums [5][6]. - The sanctions have led to a 1.2% rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude futures reaching $79.8 per barrel, as market participants seek safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical risks [6]. - Historical trends indicate a strong positive correlation between Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and the dollar index, as the dollar attracts cross-border capital during periods of regional instability [7]. Group 3: Liquidity Conditions - Changes in global and domestic liquidity conditions are adding another layer of complexity to the dollar index's movements, with the People's Bank of China conducting a significant reverse repo operation to address pre-Spring Festival liquidity pressures [8][10]. - The interbank market's DR007 rate has remained above 2.4%, indicating tight liquidity conditions ahead of the holiday, which has led to increased demand for dollar financing among domestic institutions [10]. - The ongoing reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and high LIBOR rates reflect tightening offshore dollar liquidity, further supporting the dollar index amid seasonal demand fluctuations [10].

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a slight increase due to favorable U.S. economic data and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel, a 1.75% increase, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $1 to $69.52 per barrel, a 1.46% increase [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that retail and food service sales in June amounted to $720.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, following a 0.9% decline in May [1] - Analysts noted that the focus on Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions has led to increased oil prices, with Brent crude nearing the $70 per barrel mark [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Panmure Liberum indicated that OPEC oil-producing countries are expected to increase supply in the market in the second half of the year, but demand is not anticipated to be as weak as previously feared [2] - It is expected that oil prices will exhibit a sideways trend for the remainder of the year rather than a singular trend [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - The stock index rose sharply with heavy volume today mainly because Iran and Israel announced a formal cease - fire before the market opened, reducing the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Except for a slight deepening of the small discount of IH, the discounts of the others converged, indicating an overall boost in market sentiment. However, after the market, new news came from the periphery that the Israeli Defense Forces detected another ballistic missile launch from Iran. The current Middle East situation remains uncertain, and the peripheral positive factors are difficult to drive the stock index continuously. Therefore, the sustainability of the positive market sentiment and the upward movement of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [6] Group 3: Market Review - The stock index rose with heavy volume today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.20%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 29.1975 billion yuan. The stock index futures also rose with heavy volume [4] Group 4: Important Information - Iran and Israel announced a formal cease - fire [5] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Group 6: Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.38 | 1.02 | 1.70 | 2.37 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.3845 | 6.2832 | 9.4575 | 21.3636 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.0978 | 0.8162 | 1.7867 | 3.0475 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 24.1607 | 8.7538 | 22.1636 | 32.492 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.9891 | 0.2748 | 0.6727 | 0.508 | [7] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.15 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.68 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 8.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 141.4582 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 29.1975 | [8]

Market Overview - The New York stock market experienced a positive trend on June 23, with all three major indices closing higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 374.96 points to 42581.78, an increase of 0.89% [1]. - The S&P 500 index increased by 57.33 points to 6025.17, reflecting a 0.96% gain, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 183.57 points to 19630.98, marking a 0.94% rise [1]. - Among the sectors in the S&P 500, ten out of eleven sectors saw gains, with the consumer discretionary and real estate sectors leading with increases of 1.75% and 1.49%, respectively. The energy sector, however, fell by 2.51% [1]. Geopolitical Impact - The latest developments in the Middle East have alleviated market concerns regarding escalating conflicts between Iran and Israel, improving risk appetite among investors [1]. - Iran's missile strike on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was confirmed by both Iranian and Qatari officials, but it did not result in casualties, which has contributed to a more stable market outlook [2]. - Despite high geopolitical risks, analysts suggest that the asymmetry of power between the conflicting parties and the ample global oil supply will mitigate potential impacts on the oil market [2]. Company-Specific Developments - Trump Media Company announced a stock buyback plan of up to $400 million, which led to an increase in its stock price. The buyback will be funded through its Bitcoin reserves strategy [3]. - The company reported total revenue of only $8.8 million for the first quarter [3]. - BMO Capital Markets downgraded Dow Inc.'s stock rating to "underweight" and reduced the target price from $29 to $22, anticipating a nearly 21% decline due to weak performance across markets [3]. - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Mueller upgraded the rating for Ventas, Inc. from "neutral" to "overweight," raising the target price to $72, indicating a potential upside of 15% based on the company's strong performance in medical real estate and senior housing [4].