Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current U.S. inflation data is masking underlying pressures from delayed tariff impacts, supply chain restructuring costs, and the depreciation of the dollar leading to rising import prices [1][2] - Short-term weakness in food and energy prices is suppressing CPI growth, but the increase in "super core inflation" excluding housing indicates a solidifying trend of price increases in core services and tariff-sensitive categories [1] - The immediate effects of U.S. tariffs are being delayed by importers stockpiling goods before tariffs take effect, leading to high inventory levels for sensitive items, which may result in price shocks in the fourth quarter as inventories are depleted [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with potential interest rate cuts in September amid a weakening job market, but premature cuts could lead to a repeat of the 1970s inflation mismanagement [2] - Historical data suggests that during periods of rapid policy shifts, market volatility (as measured by the VIX index) typically increases by 30%-50% [2] - The current inflation appears stable on the surface, but structural pressures are building, indicating a potential shift in market narrative from "rate cuts" to "inflation defense" in the fourth quarter [2]