Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Dallas Fed President, Logan, emphasized the necessity of maintaining the 4.25% interest rate range for at least 6 to 12 months to control inflation, indicating a cautious yet restrictive policy stance [3] - Following Logan's remarks, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two rate cuts within the year fell from 93% to 76% [3] - The June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The inflationary pressures are evident with clothing prices rising by 0.4%, furniture by 1%, and household appliances by 1.9% [3] - A survey indicated that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months [3] - The "super core inflation" (excluding food, energy, and housing) increased by 0.12%, surpassing previous months' growth rates [4] Group 3: Global Market Reactions - The announcement of Nvidia's approval to export AI accelerators to China boosted its stock by 4%, pushing its market cap over $4.1 trillion and contributing to a record high for the Nasdaq index [4] - The U.S. Treasury issued a record $1.2 trillion in bonds in Q2, leading to a structural decline in demand and causing a surge in 30-year Treasury yields above 5% [8] - The global market experienced a downturn, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index falling by 0.1% and gold prices dropping below $3,330 per ounce [8] Group 4: Political Pressures and Future Outlook - Political pressure from figures like Trump, who called for a 300 basis point rate cut, adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process [6] - The selection process for the next Fed Chair has begun, with potential candidates like Hassett emerging amid concerns over market stability [6] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in July has plummeted to 15%, reflecting growing uncertainty about future monetary policy [10]

Core Insights - Despite better-than-expected CPI data in May, inflation pressures remain persistent, particularly in core goods and services, with wages for the lowest 25% income group falling below pre-pandemic levels [1][5] - The latest CPI data reflects a downward trend, but the underlying inflation dynamics, especially in services and core goods, indicate ongoing challenges [2][3] - The "super core" inflation, excluding housing services, is rising, which is a priority concern for the Federal Reserve [3] Inflation Dynamics - The overall CPI data shows minimal changes across its four components: food, energy, core goods, and services, with services continuing to dominate inflation trends [2] - The "ordinary person inflation index" tracked by Strategas indicates that essential living costs have consistently outpaced income growth during Biden's presidency, which could impact political stability [4] Wage Trends - Average wage growth remains slightly above 4%, but this stability is at the expense of the lowest income group, whose wages have declined below pre-pandemic levels [5] - The sharp rebound in oil prices adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook, with significant daily increases observed [5] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain largely unchanged, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December, despite ongoing inflation concerns [7] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may opt for a cautious approach, delaying rate cuts until later in the year [7]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading above $33.00, showing a bullish trend with a 1.24% increase from the opening price of $32.59 [1] - The highest price reached during the day was $33.08, while the lowest was $32.51, indicating volatility within the trading range [1] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for silver, with significant downward pressure observed as the price broke through key support levels [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is expected to remain at a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI also stable at 2.8% [2] - Analysts are monitoring the "super core inflation" metric, which has dropped to 2.9%, the lowest in four years, indicating potential easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June has decreased significantly, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [2]

Inflation Data Summary - In February, the overall and core CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month respectively[2] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose by 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, both down by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] CPI Trends - The core CPI reached a new low, dropping to levels not seen since April 2021, breaking below the previous range of 3.2-3.3%[3] - The CPI structure showed a divergence in inflation performance between goods and services, with food inflation rising by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from January[4] Energy Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month in February, lower than the 1.1% increase in January, but still above the average of the past 12 months[6] - Gasoline and fuel prices fell by 0.9% in February, while electricity and natural gas prices rose by 1% and 2.5% respectively[6] Core Inflation Contributions - Core services contributed the most to the CPI growth, accounting for 0.15% of the increase, although this was a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous month[9] - Core goods contributed 0.04% to the CPI growth, while the energy component's contribution fell to 0.01%, down by 0.06 percentage points from January[9] Economic Outlook - The adjustment in U.S. stock markets is expected to weaken consumer demand, potentially reversing the "re-inflation" narrative[13] - Factors such as low savings rates and high stock valuations may lead to a decline in consumer spending in 2025, counteracting the effects of tariff and immigration policies aimed at re-inflation[13]

摘要 第一， 2025年2月美国通胀数据整体降温 ：CPI同比降至2.8% ，前值3%，预期2.9%；环比0.2%，前值 0.5%，预期0.3%。核心CPI同比3.1%，前值3.3%，预期3.2%；环比0.2%，前值0.4%，预期0.3%。从 克利夫兰联储Trimmed Mean CPI和亚特兰大联储粘性CPI来看，通胀广度和通胀粘性均继续回落。 第二， 如我们前期报告所述，季节性残留导致1月部分商品和服务价格上涨幅度被高估，即"1月效应"，这一 变化会在后续数据中逆转。从2月数据来看，1月反弹幅度较大的汽车保险、汽车卡车租赁、处方药、娱乐商 品等价格明显回调，环比分别从2%、1.7%、2.5%、0.3%回落至0.3%、-1.3%、0%、-0.7% 。 第三， 权重较大、粘性较强的住房项价格增速亦有所放缓，2月环比0.3%，前值0.4%。一则业主等价租金 （OER）和主要居所租金环比都趋于稳定，两者2月环比均保持在0.3%。作为领先指标的新租客租约价格 （NTRR）同比增速已落入负值；二则外宿环比增速显著回落至0.2%，前值1.4%。现阶段，OER和主要居所 租金3月环比年化分别为3.8%和3.7%，接近疫情 ...