Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a slight increase that was below expectations, reinforcing market predictions for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - The delayed CPI report, impacted by the federal government shutdown, revealed a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the anticipated 0.3% [1] - The overall CPI year-over-year rose by 3.0%, still above the Federal Reserve's target [1] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield dropping by 5 basis points, indicating sensitivity to monetary policy changes [1] - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% following the CPI data release [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the US September CPI, which may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's potential actions in December [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The overall CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% compared to the previous month, while the core CPI is anticipated to increase by 0.3% [1] - Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will still release the inflation report, which is crucial for the Social Security Administration's cost-of-living adjustments for 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts believe that the CPI data will not hinder the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and it may provide clues for the December meeting [1] - Traders have already priced in expectations for rate cuts in both the upcoming week and December [1] - A chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank stated that only significantly higher-than-expected data would alter the market's perception regarding another rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]