美银EPFR周度资金流向：截至周三当周，美国国债流入88亿美元，为4月以来最大；加密货币基金流出22亿美元，创有记录以来第二大单周流出量。美股科技股今年有望获得创纪录的750亿美元资金流入。 ...

当地时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结 束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦政府"停摆"。 这场"停摆"危机虽然结束了，但其对本就压力重重的美国联邦政府债务状况而言，犹如雪上加霜。 根据美国财政部10月下旬公布的数据，美国联邦政府债务总额首超38万亿美元，距离突破37万亿美元仅 过去两个多月。英国《经济学人》网站日前刊文称，美国政府"停摆"导致每日债务激增170亿美元。 目前，美国国债的规模及其累积速度，引发外界对美国财政健康状况和现行联邦政策可持续性的质疑。 对此，本报采访中国人民大学国际关系学院教授崔守军和中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究 员杨子荣，对美国国债飙升的成因及影响进行解读。 美国国债为何持续"狂飙"？ 美国联邦政府债务增长速度越来越快，原因主要有二：一是存量规模大；二是新增赤字高。联邦政府为 偿旧债而举新债，形成债务的"雪球效应"，其背后是美国政治极化加剧 【观察】 美国联邦政府债务增长近年呈加速态势，在2024年1月、7月和11月接连突破34万亿美元、35万亿美元和 36万亿美元，并于2025年8月达到37万亿美元。 据美国联合经济委 ...

美国政府于周四磕磕绊绊地恢复运转。此前，这场美国历史上最长的政府停摆已导致空中交通陷入混 乱，切断了对低收入美国人的食品援助，并迫使超过100万名员工一个多月无薪工作。然而，最初导致 这场长达43天停摆的深层政治分歧依然悬而未决。 这份拨款法案几乎没有设置什么限制条款，来约束美国总统特朗普扣留开支，而本届政府已是常态化地 挑战国会在资金问题上的宪法权威。此外，法案也并未解决即将到期的医疗补贴问题，而这正是参议院 民主党人最初发起停摆的导火索。 这次停摆也暴露了民主党内部的分歧：一边是其自由派阵营，要求领导层采取一切必要措施来遏制特朗 普；另一边则是温和派，他们认为只要共和党在国会两院占据多数，他们的选择就相当有限。参议院民 主党领袖舒默正面临辞职的呼声，尽管他本人对这项协议投了反对票。 白宫方面表示，约140万名在停摆期间无薪工作的联邦雇员，将从上周六开始领到补发的薪水，所有款 项预计在当地时间下周三前支付完毕。特朗普的白宫曾威胁要扣发其中部分员工的薪水，但目前没有迹 象表明他们会这样做。 特朗普在停摆期间解雇了数千名员工，但重启政府的拨款协议确保了他们能保住饭碗。特朗普政府已下 令各机构在五天内撤销解雇令。 ...

所罗门强调，解决巨额债务的关键不在增税或开辟新财源，"收入路径"远不如"增长路径"可行。他指 出，提升美国增长轨迹至关重要，就债务管理而言，3%与当前2%的趋势增长率存在"巨大"差异。 高盛集团首席执行官大卫·所罗门（David Solomon）就飙升的美国国债发出严厉警告，称若当前财政路 径延续且经济扩张未显著提速，美国"终将为此付出代价"。 在接受私募股权巨头大卫·鲁宾斯坦（David Rubenstein）主持的《大卫·鲁宾斯坦秀》访谈时，凯雷投资 联合创始人鲁宾斯坦问及当前高达38万亿美元的国债规模，称"有人会说这数额惊人"。 所罗门回应称，他接触的人不仅担忧债务本身，更担忧其过去五年"加速增长"的态势，"且我们似乎无 力扭转"。他指出，激进财政刺激已"嵌入"民主经济体的运行模式，自金融危机以来债务规模已从2008 年的约10万亿美元激增至当前水平，增长超三倍。 彼得·G·彼得森基金会（Peter G. Peterson Foundation）数据显示，2025年债务增速进一步加快，从37万亿 增至38万亿的速度为疫情之外最快。该非党派监督机构首席执行官迈克尔·彼得森（Michael Petersen ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's promise of "at least $2000 tax refund" has stirred significant public interest, appealing to the financial concerns of American households facing rising costs [1][3] Group 1: Financial Implications - The revenue from tariffs has reportedly exceeded $220 billion, but distributing $2000 to every American would require over $320 billion, indicating a shortfall [3] - The U.S. national debt is increasing, with annual interest payments alone reaching $1.4 trillion, making it unlikely that funds will be available for widespread payouts [3][10] Group 2: Legislative Challenges - Any distribution of tariff refunds would require Congressional approval, which has historically been difficult to achieve for large-scale cash distribution proposals [7][8] - Recent Senate votes have rejected related authorizations, highlighting the low probability of such a plan being implemented [8] Group 3: Economic Reality - The anticipated cash refunds may not materialize as expected, with potential outcomes being minor tax reductions rather than substantial cash payments [5] - In the context of rising inflation and increased living costs, any small tax refunds may not significantly alleviate financial burdens for families [5][13] Group 4: Political Strategy - The $2000 tax refund appears to be a calculated electoral promise aimed at garnering support rather than a feasible financial plan [12] - The focus should shift from potential refunds to actual reductions in living costs for American families [13]

Group 1 - The CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, expressed concerns about the rapid increase in U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion, and warned of potential "clearing" consequences if economic growth does not improve [2] - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the national debt has increased by over $7 trillion, with the pandemic accelerating government borrowing [2] - The current debt growth rate is nearly $70,000 per second, rising from $34 trillion in January 2024 to the current level, although Solomon maintains that the overall condition of the U.S. economy is good and the likelihood of recession is low [2] Group 2 - The cost of servicing the debt has rapidly eroded fiscal space, with interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, accounting for approximately 17% of federal spending, surpassing defense expenditures [2] - Budget oversight organizations have warned that this trend may further increase inflationary pressures and weaken consumer purchasing power [2] - Despite concerns about the potential weakening of the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency, Solomon disagrees, noting that global capital continues to flow into U.S. markets, indicating the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration claims that the fiscal deficit has decreased by about $350 billion this year compared to last year, attributing this to spending controls and improved revenues, although overall debt continues to grow [3] - Solomon emphasized that the ability to avoid future fiscal pressures depends on the overall economy's capacity for stronger expansion; otherwise, the debt burden will accumulate to a significant level [3]

Group 1 - Foreign central banks increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by $36.34 billion last week, compared to an increase of $4.754 billion in the previous period [1]

Core Insights - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion as of October 22, marking an increase of nearly six times since 2000, which is equivalent to 125% of GDP. This surge is largely attributed to the trillions of dollars printed by the Federal Reserve during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [1]. Group 1 - The U.S. national debt reached over $38 trillion, a significant milestone [1] - The national debt has increased nearly sixfold since the year 2000 [1] - The current debt level represents 125% of the U.S. GDP [1] Group 2 - The national debt was $2.57 trillion in 1950 and grew to $5.33 trillion by 1975 [3] - Economic growth in the mid-20th century reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion as of October 21, marking a continuous trend of record-high debt levels [1][3] - The speed at which the U.S. government accumulates debt has significantly accelerated over time, with the latest increase of $1 trillion occurring in just two months [7][9] - The current debt level is approximately 130% of the GDP, which is significantly above the international debt warning threshold of 60% [26] Debt Accumulation Trends - Historical context shows that it took 147 years for the U.S. to accumulate its first $1 trillion in debt, while the most recent $1 trillion increase occurred in just two months [7][9] - The average time taken to increase the national debt by $1 trillion has decreased from 4.1 years in the 1980s to just two months in the current period [7][9] Debt Management Practices - The U.S. government is borrowing new debt not only to pay off maturing old debt but also to cover ongoing expenditures, leading to an increase in total debt [16][27] - The federal government’s revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is projected at $4.9 trillion, while the debt stands at $38 trillion, indicating a severe imbalance [26][27] Implications of Debt Levels - The current debt situation resembles a Ponzi scheme, where new debt is used to pay off old debt without any actual repayment of principal, raising concerns about sustainability [27] - The U.S. national debt is not just a federal issue but reflects broader economic vulnerabilities, suggesting potential risks for future financial stability [27][28]

Core Insights - The U.S. national debt has surged to $38 trillion, indicating a rapid and alarming increase in borrowing [1][5] - The timeline of debt accumulation shows a drastic acceleration, with the last $1 trillion added in just two months, suggesting a potential annual increase of $6 trillion [5][6] - The reliance on debt to finance government spending is becoming unsustainable, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024 [6][8] Debt Accumulation Timeline - From $0 to $1 trillion took 192 years, while reaching $10 trillion took only 27 years [3] - The jump from $10 trillion to $20 trillion occurred in 9 years, and from $20 trillion to $30 trillion in just 5 years [3][5] - The most recent increase from $30 trillion to $38 trillion happened in only 3 years, with the last trillion added in a mere two months [5][6] Economic Implications - The U.S. government is expected to run annual deficits exceeding $1.5 trillion over the next decade, with no viable plans for spending cuts or tax increases [8] - The ongoing issuance of debt raises concerns about the sustainability of this financial strategy, likening it to living on credit [8][9] - Trust in U.S. debt is waning, as evidenced by significant reductions in holdings by countries like Japan and China, leading to a potential decrease in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [11][12] Global Impact - The increase in U.S. debt is seen as a redistribution of global wealth, with the U.S. printing money and the world bearing the costs [11][13] - The strength of the dollar is inversely affecting other economies, and a potential collapse of this system could have severe repercussions for the U.S. itself [11][13]