Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing weekly losses, trading below $3,330, as the market awaits the release of the U.S. PCE inflation data for new incentives [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar is rebounding from multi-year lows amid optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - Traders are avoiding establishing directional positions in both the dollar and gold ahead of the core PCE price index release [6]. - The market anticipates a rise in the core PCE price index for May to 2.3%, up from 2.1% in April, with a monthly increase of 0.1% expected [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Higher-than-expected core PCE data could reignite market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [8]. - Current market probabilities for a Fed rate cut in July stand at 21%, while September's probability is at 75%, according to CME Group's Fed Watch tool [9]. - The upcoming data will be crucial in determining the timing of the Fed's next rate cut, significantly impacting the non-yielding gold prices [10]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are struggling near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) support level, currently at $3,325, with a potential test of this level again [3][17]. - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is below the midline, indicating continued downside potential, currently trading close to 46 [18]. - A weekly close below the 50-day SMA support could confirm a new downtrend, opening the door to test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April record rebound at $3,232 [19]. Group 4: Resistance and Support Levels - Immediate resistance is at the 50-day SMA, and a breakthrough could test the 21-day SMA barrier at $3,354 [21]. - Regaining the 21-day SMA is crucial for a rebound from the two-week low [22]. - The next upward obstacle is at the 23.6% Fibonacci level of $3,377, and a decisive breakthrough could target the $3,400 threshold for gold buyers [24].