美欧关税争端

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每日机构分析:7月15日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 14:35
Group 1: Global Investor Sentiment - Global investor sentiment has reached its most optimistic level since February 2025, with the increase in profit optimism being the largest since July 2020 [1] - The proportion of cash in investment portfolios has dropped to 3.9%, typically indicating an overbought market and triggering a "sell signal" [1] - Investors have the highest overweight position in Eurozone assets since January 2005, despite viewing trade wars as the biggest potential systemic risk [1] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Fiscal Policy - Deutsche Bank forecasts that U.S. debt interest expenses will increase by approximately $100 billion this year, driven mainly by rising outstanding debt [2] - The passage of the "Inflation Reduction Act" has heightened concerns regarding U.S. fiscal health and debt sustainability [2] - The market expects the U.S. Treasury to rely more on short-term bonds to control interest costs in the short term [2] Group 3: Japanese Economic Policy - RBC indicates that the outcome of the Japanese Senate elections could lead to tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, potentially worsening fiscal conditions and delaying interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3] - Japan's 20-year government bond yield has reached a new high of 2.657% since 1999, reflecting rising long-term financing cost pressures [3] Group 4: Asian Currency and Market Dynamics - Barclays notes that low yields on Asian currencies make them less attractive to yield-seeking investors, especially with potential increases in U.S. tariffs [3] - Discussions on de-dollarization are limited by insufficient liquidity and mature domestic markets in many Asian countries [3] Group 5: German Economic Outlook - The ZEW Institute reports that market sentiment is bolstered by hopes for a swift resolution to U.S.-EU tariff disputes and immediate investment stimulus plans from the German government [4] - Despite ongoing global trade conflicts, nearly two-thirds of experts predict an improvement in the German economy [5]
美国将推迟对欧盟征收50%关税,冯德莱恩:欧盟准备好“迅速果断”推进与美谈判
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-26 22:48
这一推迟决定短暂提振了市场信心。据美国有线电视新闻网报道,消息传出后,亚洲股市周一小幅上涨。日经225指数早盘一度上涨0.8%,韩国 综合股价指数上涨0.9%,中国上证指数小幅上涨0.3%。 特朗普23日威胁自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税,这远高于美国此前宣布对欧暂缓征收的20%所谓"对等关税",招致欧盟方面强烈 不满。据英国《金融时报》25日报道,欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇呼吁"美欧双方应该相互尊重,而不是威胁",并 表示将"坚决捍卫应有的权益"以应对美国的关税升级。 【环球时报报道 记者 李迅典】在美国总统特朗普23日威胁自6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税后不久,事情迎来反转。当地时间25日,特朗普表 示,在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通话后,同意将对欧盟商品征收50%关税的起征时间从原定的6月1日推迟至7月9日。 一直以来,欧盟是美国最大的贸易伙伴之一。根据美国政府数据,去年欧盟向美国出口超过6000亿美元的商品,并进口价值3700亿美元的商品。 但特朗普认为美国与欧盟之间存在不公平贸易关系,并表示欧盟一直在"占美国的便宜"。《金融时报》报道说,美欧官员都承认,由于双 ...