Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,561.73 tons on July 25, an increase of 78.28 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price on July 25 closed at $38.33 per ounce, down 2.44%, with a daily high of $39.52 and a low of $38.10 [1] Group 2 - EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite impending counter-tariff plans, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - The US may impose a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30%, while maintaining a 50% tariff on steel [3] - EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will not extend the tariff deadline of August 1, and negotiations with the EU are ongoing to reach a satisfactory trade agreement [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross stated that the goal of negotiations with the EU is to open European markets for U.S. exports [1] - The critical issue is whether the agreement proposed by the EU is sufficient to persuade President Trump to abandon the 30% tariff threat [1] Group 2: EU Response - European leaders have indicated that if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached before the August 1 deadline, the EU will implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs [1] - The EU Commission spokesperson stated that countermeasures would take effect on August 7 if negotiations fail [1]

Group 1 - The core objective of the negotiations between Trump and the EU is to encourage the EU to open its markets for exports from the United States [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, amid moderate economic growth and inflation reaching the 2% target [1][2] - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively, with inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2027 set at 2.0% and 2026 at 1.6% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade negotiations, particularly the potential for tariffs up to 30% on EU goods, is a significant external factor impacting the ECB's policy space [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade negotiations are affecting corporate decision-making and may lead to a shift in production capacity towards the eurozone, potentially lowering product prices and increasing price instability [2] - The ECB's assessment indicates a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in actual GDP for the eurozone in Q1, driven by preemptive shipping by businesses and stronger consumption and investment [2][3] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone rose to 51 from 50.6 in June, indicating a notable expansion in the services sector, although manufacturing remains in contraction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, marking the first time since June of the previous year that it has not made any adjustments [1] Group 1: Interest Rates - The ECB has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - This decision reflects the ECB's cautious approach amid ongoing US-EU trade negotiations and the unclear impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that there is internal disagreement within the ECB regarding the future monetary policy path [1] - Investors generally anticipate that the ECB may lower interest rates once more before the end of the year, potentially in December [1] Group 3: Currency Considerations - The appreciation of the euro is also a significant factor influencing the ECB's decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the main interest rate at 2%, awaiting clearer signals regarding the trade relationship between the EU and the US [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy - The ECB has kept the main interest rate unchanged at 2%, down from 4% since June of the previous year, indicating a significant easing of policy pressure [1] - The ECB emphasizes a "meeting-by-meeting" approach, stating that future decisions will be based on the latest data [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Current inflation has returned to the target level of 2%, with domestic price pressures continuing to ease and wage growth slowing down [1] Market Expectations - The market anticipates at least one more rate cut later this year, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic conditions [1] Leadership and Communication - Focus is on ECB President Christine Lagarde's upcoming press conference, where she is expected to address questions regarding future rate cuts, the strength of the euro, and the impact of tariffs [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2509 contract down 0.03% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, while those in the US, Germany, and Japan declined. The central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan, and the market capital was relatively stable. Given the complex external environment, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the price fluctuations of Treasury bond futures may increase in the short term due to the rise in market risk appetite [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts TS2509, TS2512, TF2509, TF2512, T2509, T2512, TL2509, and TL2512 all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.01% to - 0.45%. Open interest for some contracts increased (e.g., TF2509, T2509, TL2512), while others decreased (e.g., TS2509, TF2512). Trading volumes varied across contracts [2] - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts changed compared to the previous values, with some widening and some narrowing [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the active CTD bonds of each Treasury bond futures contract was between 1.1176% and 1.6478%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - SHIBOR7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates decreased by 1.7bp, 0.95bp, and 0.9bp respectively, while SHIBOR overnight, DR001, and FR001 also decreased, and GC001 increased slightly [2] Spot Market - **China's Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of China's key - term Treasury bonds, including 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y, generally increased, with the 10Y yield rising 0.92bp to 1.68%. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.74bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: US 10Y, German 10Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields decreased by 6bp, 5bp, and 3.3bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads varied [2] Macro and Industry Information - **Macro News**: The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. China's July LPR remained unchanged, and the market expects a further decline in the second half of the year. There are important diplomatic events and new regulations such as the "Housing Rental Regulations" [3] - **Industry Information**: Most money - market interest rates declined. US Treasury bond yields decreased across the board, mainly driven by the rise in the European Treasury bond market and increased concerns about US - EU trade negotiations [3] - **Comments and Strategies**: Long - end Treasury bonds fell significantly, and the central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal. The market capital was stable. With a complex external environment, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and short - term price fluctuations of Treasury bond futures may increase [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points this week. The quotes in July changed little, with Maersk's quotes in the second half of July slightly higher than in the first half. The quotes of other airlines converged to $3300 - $3500. The 08 contract is still at a discount to the spot index and has room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's quotes in the second half of July were slightly higher than in the first half, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - $3500. In August, few airlines have reported freight rates. HPL continued the late - July rate, and CMA CGM raised the rate by $800 compared to late July. The 08 contract is at a discount to the spot index and has repair space. In October, focus on short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From July 7 to July 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates rising and falling due to different supply - demand fundamentals of different routes. The comprehensive index declined slightly [9] - European Route: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, better than expected. The index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation has no clear result, and the market faces uncertainty. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate was stable. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Route: The supply - demand fundamentals were weaker than the European route, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% from the previous period [9] - North American Route: The "tariff war" was the focus. Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. The US set new tariff rates for multiple countries and will impose a 50% tariff on copper. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate rebounded after adjustment. On July 11, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and East basic ports were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively from the previous period [9][10] - EU - US Trade Negotiation: The negotiation on EU - US trade is ongoing, with automobile and agricultural product tariffs being the key issues. Any agreement depends on Trump's decision and may be overturned by him. The US currently imposes 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on the automotive sector, and 10% on most other goods [10] - Trump's Tariff Plan: Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all trading partners that have not been tariffed [10] - Yemen Houthi Armed Forces: The leader of the Yemen Houthi armed forces said that as long as Israel continues to invade and blockade Gaza, the armed forces will continue to ban ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The European route index rose from 2258.04 to 2421.94, an increase of 7.3%. The US West route index fell from 1557.77 to 1266.59, a decrease of 18.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, particularly focusing on President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025, which has led to significant concerns and discussions within the EU regarding their response [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Threats and Negotiations - President Trump announced a potential 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU, escalating from previous threats of 20% and 10% [2]. - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič warned that a 30% tariff would make transatlantic trade "almost impossible" and would have a significant negative impact on trade [1][2]. - The EU is currently in discussions to respond to the tariff threat, with a focus on reaching an agreement before the August deadline to avoid further escalation [1][3]. Group 2: EU Internal Dynamics - There are internal divisions within the EU regarding the approach to take, but a majority prefer to continue dialogue with the US rather than retaliate immediately [3]. - Irish Minister Thomas Byrne emphasized the importance of stability for investor confidence and suggested that prolonged negotiations are preferable to a trade war [3]. Group 3: EU's Countermeasures - The EU is preparing a retaliation plan that includes a new tariff list covering approximately €72 billion worth of US imports, down from an initial €95 billion [4]. - The EU's previous retaliation plan concerning US tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles has been postponed to August 6 to allow for further negotiations [5]. - The EU is considering using its strongest trade tool, the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), to respond to the US's tariff threats, although it is not yet deemed the right time to implement it [6].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Research anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in July, contingent on the outcome of US-EU trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The expected interest rate cut by the ECB is projected to be 25 basis points [1] - The ECB may abandon its planned rate cut in July if the US-EU trade talks yield moderate results [1]