Core Viewpoint - The timing of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is under scrutiny due to the release of key employment reports, which may lead to a potential postponement of the meeting to ensure better data for decision-making [2][4][19] Group 1: Meeting Timing and Employment Data - The FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, but two crucial employment reports will be released on December 16, creating a conflict that may prompt a one-week delay [2][5] - Historical precedents exist for adjusting meeting dates, with past instances in 1971 and 1974 where meetings were postponed due to special circumstances [14] - The current meeting schedule is the earliest since 2003, and even a delay to December 16-17 would still fall within historical norms for December meetings [14] Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Policy Implications - There is a notable division among FOMC members regarding a potential rate cut in December, with some advocating for a 25 basis point reduction while others believe it may not be necessary [3][18] - This internal disagreement heightens the importance of the meeting's timing, as decisions made without complete data could lead to significant policy misjudgments [3][18] - If the meeting is postponed, it may provide clearer signals regarding the Fed's policy direction, while maintaining the original schedule could indicate a consensus on the need to act despite incomplete data [19] Group 3: Labor Market Indicators - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with private sector job growth at only 97,000 in September, raising concerns about the labor market [8] - The leading labor market indicator from UBS fell to 75% in September from 88% in August, suggesting a potential increase in job losses [8] - The focus on labor market data is critical for the Fed's decision-making, as historical trends indicate that single employment reports can significantly influence monetary policy [13]